There is an old saying in fantasy football that championships are not won at the draft. This encapsulates a lot of things. For instance, your ability to effectively turn over your roster through trades and free agency moves. It also means being able to take each matchup, on a week-by-week basis, and scratch and claw your way to wins.
When you are drafting players at the beginning of the year, you are forced to take a high-level view of the player and his situation for the year as a whole. When making a start-sit decision on a weekly basis you have the luxury of being able to evaluate the player on a more micro level. You can evaluate based on the opponent they play and potential game script. While you still want to play great players regardless of matchup, evaluating these factors can give you an advantage over your opponent in head-to-head matchups, as well as give you a leg up when setting DFS fantasy football lineups.
Every week I will be selecting a handful of players to highlight that I believe have matchup or game script factors that either elevate or dampen their fantasy football prospects. I will include a screenshot of my entire matchup grid for every team as a reference.
The betting lines information is pulled from an average of major gambling institutions as listed at vegasinsider.com. The matchup rankings are pulled directly from JJ Zachariason’s weekly tweet listing schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed by position.
There are different ways to calculate adjusted fantasy points allowed. Others likely do it differently than I do. But here's where each team ranks as a matchup for QB/RB/WR/TE/DEF through 11 weeks. pic.twitter.com/qMLZkgHDbg
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 23, 2021
For Week 12 I have selected seven players as you’ll see below. I’m always eager to hear your opinions on my selections, or other players I should have included. You cweet at me here, and my DM’s are always open. Now, let’s get started.
Players with Favorable Matchups
Miles Sanders
Miles Sanders returned from injury as the Eagles lead back and saw 16 carries for 94 yards in Week 11. This week, Sanders will get a top ten matchup against the New York Giants. The Eagles are 3.5 point favorites which should allow them to continue doing what they prefer doing; running the ball a lot.
Rob Gronkowski
Rob Gronkowski looked back and healthy in Week 11, as he turned eight targets into six catches for 71 yards. Gronkowski has a top-five matchup for the position this week. The Colts, in general, are a heavy pass funnel defense that stops the run effectively. This means the ball should be in Tom Brady’s hands a lot on Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk
After a rocky start to the year, Brandon Aiyuk has turned it around with seven targets in three of the last four games. He even led the 49ers receivers in snaps in Week 11. This week, Aiyuk will see a Vikings secondary that has been one of the best matchups in the league for wide receivers. The game is also expected to be one of the higher over/unders on the week with plenty of fantasy-relevant scoring. Aiyuk is looking like a nice affordable flex option for Week 12.
Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson is still seeing very limited work in the receiving game but the rushing work hasn’t gone anywhere. In Week 12, Gibson gets a Seahawks defense that has been gashed by the run all year, while holding up admirably against the pass. Combine that with the fact that this is a game that Washington could legitimately be leading in. It may be set up for an Antonio Gibson week in fantasy football.
Players with Unfavorable Matchups
Myles Gaskin
Myles Gaskin has been very inefficient on the year, but volume has led to some fantasy football success. Particularly in odd weeks. His fantasy success or failure has ping-ponged back and forth in an almost predictable manner. Week 12 is an even week, which according to the trend would mean a bad week for Gaskin. That’s not my actual argument here though. The Dolphins are underdogs in Week 12 against the Panthers. The Panthers have arguably been the best defense against the run on the year. Gaskin may get enough passing work to salvage something, but I don’t want him in my fantasy football lineup.
AJ Brown
AJ Brown has not been able to stay healthy this year, which has ruined his fantasy football season. The X-rays on his ribs came back negative this week, which is great news and hopefully, he can get back to his old self down the stretch this year. I don’t think this week is that week, however. The Patriots are a terrible matchup for receivers and have a long history of taking out a team’s best weapon; which is clearly AJ Brown. If I have any other viable options, I am pivoting off AJ Brown this week.
Damien Harris
Damien Harris came back from injury in Week 11 to find himself in a timeshare with Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden. He still saw double-digit touches and was efficient, but the sledding may be more difficult this week as the Patriots face the Titans. The Titans have been one of the heaviest pass funnel teams in the NFL this year. The Patriots are big favorites in the game, which should help Harris, but there are too many factors working against him for me to feel confident playing him.
