Every week I will highlight some players with matchups that I believe either elevate or dampen their fantasy football prospects. I will include a screenshot of my entire matchup grid for every team as a reference. The betting lines information is pulled from an average of major gambling institutions as listed at vegasinsider.com. The matchup rankings are pulled directly from JJ Zachariason’s weekly tweet listing schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed by position. You can find his tweets @LateRoundQB.
There are different ways to calculate adjusted fantasy points allowed. Others likely do it differently than I do. But here's where each team ranks as a matchup for QB/RB/WR/TE/DEF through 13 weeks. pic.twitter.com/7hobzVhUq9
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 7, 2021
For Week 14 I have selected seven players as seen below. I’m always eager to hear your opinions on my selections, or other players I should have included. Tweet at me at @zhaugenfootball, and my DM’s are always open.
Players with favorable matchups
Clyde Edwards-Helaire:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been fine in his two weeks since returning from injury. Much like the Chiefs offense as a whole, however, he hasn’t been able to make the jump from fine to week-winning play. Andy Reid has talked about the need to get the running game going. The Chiefs running game is centering clearly on CEH. The Chiefs play the Raiders in Week 14. The Raiders defense has been bottom-five in fantasy football against running backs on the year. This presents CEH with the perfect chance for a true late-season statement game on Sunday.
Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin has been the top pass-catching target for the Washington Football Team this year; but that hasn’t always meant fantasy football success. He is currently the WR20 on the year. I like his chances at a good game this week, though.
I have a lot of respect for what Trevon Diggs does for the Cowboy’s defense, but they give up the fifth-most points in fantasy football to wide receivers. While the Cowboy’s defense does make a lot of plays on the ball, they are also susceptible to big plays. I’m betting on a couple of big plays that will make McLaurin fantasy managers happy in Week 14.
Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley has been seeing good volume and dominating touches in the Giants backfield. He’s also been efficient in peripheral measures, such as yards created per touch. The Giant’s offensive line and quarterback play have held him back, though. I am nervous about predicting that to change with Jake Fromm under center.
However, Barkley gets a great matchup with the Chargers this weekend. The Charger’s high-end pass defense has funneled almost all offensive production to the running back position. Combine that with the Giants rolling out a backup quarterback, I am expecting a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley.
Cole Kmet
Cole Kmet has 6 or more targets in five of his last six games; 18 targets in his last two games . He’s shown a connection with Andy Dalton. But he was starting to show a similar connection with Fields before the injury as well.
He certainly hasn’t displayed the upside to be considered a top-tier tight end in fantasy football, but the volume is there for him to be a weekly play at this point. The Bears will likely need to pass a lot this week as massive 13-point underdogs to the Packers. The Packers pass defense has been most susceptible to the tight end position, as they are top-5 against fantasy receivers. The game appears to be set up for Kmet to continue to see volume and hopefully find the end zone for the first time this year.
Players with unfavorable matchups
James Robinson
James Robinson is coming off his worst game of the season; after essentially being benched for Carlos Hyde following a fumble. While I expect him to be the lead back this week, the risk of being in Urban Meyer’s doghouse does still exist. On top of that, the matchup for Robinson is not ideal.
The Titans are a top-five run defense on the year, largely due to funneling volume towards their terrible pass defense. The Jaguars are double-digit underdogs which isn’t what you want for a running back’s workload. James Robinson isn’t a must-bench, but I am looking for other options for my fantasy football team.
Tom Brady
If I’m being honest, I don’t feel great about putting the GOAT on this list. But the Bills are a nightmare matchup for opposing passing attacks, ranking as the worst matchup for both quarterbacks and receivers. Brady doesn’t provide a floor with his legs, so if the passing volume and efficiency aren’t there, it could be a down week for the legendary quarterback. If you have other viable options, I would look that way. He is also off my radar for DFS this week.
AJ Dillon
People were excited to see what AJ Dillon could do with a workhorse role when Aaron Jones went down with an MCL injury a month ago. He turned in some solid fantasy football performances each week, but it was largely due to heavy volume – as his efficiency was pedestrian.
He played ahead of Aaron Jones in his return in Week 12, but with the bye week to heal up I am expecting Jones to take back a good chunk of that work. On top of that, the Packers play the Bears in Week 14, who are one of the top run defenses in the NFL. Dillon has been a usable fantasy asset for a few weeks now, but I think it is time to pivot.
