There is an old saying in fantasy football that championships are not won at the draft. This encapsulates a lot of things. For instance, your ability to effectively turn over your roster through trades and free agency moves. It also means being able to take each matchup, on a week-by-week basis, and scratch and claw your way to wins. When you are drafting players at the beginning of the year, you are forced to take a high-level view of the player and his situation for the year.
When making a start-sit decision on a weekly basis you have the luxury of being able to evaluate the player on a more micro level. You can evaluate based on the opponent they play and potential game script. While you still want to play great players regardless of matchup, evaluating these factors can give you an advantage over your opponent in head-to-head matchups, as well as give you a leg up when setting fantasy football DFS lineups.
Every week I will be selecting a handful of players to highlight that I believe have matchup or game script factors that either elevate or dampen their fantasy football prospects. I will include a screenshot of my entire matchup grid for every team as a reference. The betting lines information is pulled from an average of major gambling institutions as listed at vegasinsider.com. The matchup rankings are pulled directly from JJ Zachariason’s weekly tweet listing schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed by position. You can find his tweets @LateRoundQB.
There are different ways to calculate adjusted fantasy points allowed. Others likely do it differently than I do. But here's where each team ranks as a matchup for QB/RB/WR/TE/DEF through 15 weeks. pic.twitter.com/wyrDofPrqY
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 22, 2021
For Week 16 I have selected seven players as seen below. I’m always eager to hear your opinions on my selections, or other players I should have included. Tweet at me at @zhaugenfootball, and my DM’s are always open.
Players with Favorable Matchups
Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz hasn’t been a fantasy football league winner this year, but he has been a solid tight end starter since being traded to the Cardinals in October. He is averaging over 6 targets per game in that stretch. This week the Cardinals play the Colts. They have been a bit of a tight end funnel and are in fact the top matchup in the NFL for the position. Unless you have a top-tier guy at the position, I would be playing Zach Ertz this week.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Odell Beckham has had a bit of a resurgence with the Rams since being moved at the deadline. He was coming off three straight weeks with strong target numbers and a touchdown coming into Week 15. But he disappointed managers in the fantasy football playoffs with one catch for seven yards. If you are still alive with him though, I would fire him up for Week 16. The Vikings are the top matchup for receivers in the NFL, and this game has the highest over-under of any game on the week.
James Robinson
James Robinson re-emerged in Week 15 after the departure of Urban Meyer. It wasn’t a big fantasy football day for Robinson, but the 21 touches were very significant. Carlos Hyde will be out for the game this week, which means Robinson’s workload is very secure. Combine that with the matchup this week against the Jets and you’re looking at gold. The Jets are the number one matchup for running backs on the year, and the game script should be good enough to allow Robinson to do this thing.
Dak Prescott
After a hot start to the year, Dak Prescott has cooled off considerably. He hasn’t been the high-end difference-maker at the position you paid for. At some point, the touchdown regression will hit though. Why not expect it to happen against Washington in Week 16? This defense is the number one matchup for quarterbacks in fantasy football and just got absolutely torched by Jalen Hurts. If you made it this far with Dak Prescott, you should certainly be firing him up this week.
Players with Unfavorable Matchups
Rashaad Penny
Rashaad Penny was all the hype a week ago, after a monster Week 14 fantasy football performance. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to repeat in Week 15. He split work and wasn’t able to do much with what he got. I still expect Penny to be the team’s lead back the rest of the way, but the usage seems like it will be difficult to predict. The Seahawks also play the Bears this week who are one of the better run defenses in the NFL. It’s not a week I would want to put my faith in Penny.
Mac Jones
Mac Jones has had a great rookie year and is a good quarterback. Without any rushing floor, he is dependent a little bit on scheme and game flow. The Patriots’ rematch with the Bills in Week 16 is unlikely to feature three pass attempts like last time, but I would still expect a run-heavy approach. The Bills defense is much more susceptible to the run, which also happens to be how the Patriots like playing football. Even in fantasy football Superflex, I am not super excited about Mac Jones this week.
Duke Johnson
Duke Johnson has been bouncing around tryouts and practice squads all year. But in Week 15 he put together one of the best performances in his career. He had 127 yards on 23 touches and two touchdowns. He was the clear leader in that backfield. I do think there are reasons for concern though. With Gaskin just starting to get healthy, I do expect his role to continue to grow in this backfield. The Dolphins also play the Saints this week, who are the worst matchup for fantasy football running backs. I loved seeing the big game from Duke, but he won’t be in my lineups this week.
