Congratulations on making it to fantasy football championship week. There is an old saying in fantasy football that championships are not won at the draft. This encapsulates a lot of things. For instance, your ability to effectively turn over your roster through trades and free agency moves. It also means being able to take each matchup, on a week-by-week basis, and scratch and claw your way to wins. When you are drafting players at the beginning of the year, you are forced to take a high-level view of the player and his situation for the year.
When making a start-sit decision on a weekly basis you have the luxury of being able to evaluate the player on a more micro level. You can evaluate based on the opponent they play and potential game script. While you still want to play great players regardless of matchup, evaluating these factors can give you an advantage over your opponent in head-to-head matchups, as well as give you a leg up when setting fantasy football DFS lineups.
Every week I will be selecting a handful of players to highlight that I believe have matchup or game script factors that either elevate or dampen their fantasy football prospects. I will include a screenshot of my entire matchup grid for every team as a reference. The betting lines information is pulled from an average of major gambling institutions as listed at vegasinsider.com. The matchup rankings are pulled directly from JJ Zachariason’s weekly tweet listing schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed by position. You can find his tweets @LateRoundQB.
There are different ways to calculate adjusted fantasy points allowed. Others likely do it differently than I do. But here's where each team ranks as a matchup for QB/RB/WR/TE/DEF through 16 weeks. pic.twitter.com/dx6DVr3p7Y
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 28, 2021
For Week 17 I have selected eight players as seen below. I’m always eager to hear your opinions on my selections, or other players I should have included. Tweet at me at @zhaugenfootball, and my DM’s are always open.
Players with Favorable Matchups
Ronald Jones
Ronald Jones has had a rough year buried behind Leonard Fournette. A late-season injury to Fournette has thrown Jones back into the spotlight, though. While he did split work with Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Jones was the clear lead back. He did cede some passing-down work to Vaughn, but still led the team in targets. This week Jones will face the Jets rushing defense, which has given up the most adjusted fantasy football points to running backs on the year. Even for championship-caliber teams, it is hard for me to imagine sitting Ronald Jones.
Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa has quietly had a good season, en route to a 7-game win streak the Dolphins are currently on. It hasn’t led to high-end fantasy football success because of the run and defense Dolphins. But his good real-life play has created a decent floor week-to-week.
This week, I think he may have a ceiling to pair with that floor. The Dolphins take on the Titans who have been one of the worst passing defenses all year. The game isn’t expected to be extremely high scoring so I wouldn’t consider Tua a must-start, but I’m perfectly ok putting him in my lineup.
AJ Brown
In Week 16, AJ Brown finally had that blowup game we have been waiting for; coming off injury converting 16 targets into 11 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. While he has a history of volatile stats, I think Brown can keep the big games coming this week. The Titans play a Dolphins defense that has given up the eight most adjusted fantasy football points to wide receivers on the year countered with stout run defense. The Titans will likely have to pass to stay in the game.
Rashaad Penny
It turns out all you had to do was wait for his entire rookie contract to get a return on Rashaad Penny. Penny has double-digit carries in each of his last four games, including two with at least 135 rushing yards. He is the clear lead back for a run-first team and has looked pretty good doing it. In Week 17 the Seahawks take on the Lions. The Lions are a bottom-five defense against fantasy football running backs. The Seahawks have also found themselves as 6.5 point favorites which would mean a good game script for the fourth-year running back.
Players with Unfavorable Matchups
Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley has been getting very consistent volume when healthy this year; between 15-20 touches. He just hasn’t been able to do much with it behind an atrocious offensive line with incompetent quarterback play. His running style, which isn’t very north/south, has created issues for himself in this current situation as well.
I want to believe in the talent, but he combines his sustained struggles with a Bears matchup in Week 17. The Bears are a pass funnel defense who have had a strong run defense for most of the year. You can stick Saquon in your fantasy football lineups still based on volume, but I would be skeptical of his upside.
Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin’s peripherals are still pretty strong this year, but the quarterback play has made him a mess for fantasy football. It has turned him into one of the most volatile players in the game statistically. I am not confident in predicting this week to be a boom for the Washington receiver against the Eagles. Philadelphia has been the second-worst adjusted match-up for fantasy receivers, and McLaurin will have a date with a resurgent Darius Slay. McLaurin has the talent for a blow-up game any time, but he scares me this week.
Myles Gaskin
I might not even need to state this one given Myles Gaskin’s terrible game last week. But he did have a strong stretch of production this year that might have some fantasy football managers considering taking the risk. This backfield appears to be a full-blown committee though, and one that Gaskin very well might not be leading. On top of that, the Dolphins play the Titans in Week 17. The Titans have been one of the largest pass funnel teams in the NFL, which hasn’t left much production for fantasy running backs. I have a hard time seeing myself play Gaskin this week.
Sony Michel
I want to make this clear first. My skepticism of Sony Michel this week has nothing to do with the return of Cam Akers. With Darrel Henderson injured, I fully expect Sony to remain the lead back. The problem is, he isn’t very involved in the passing game. This generally isn’t an issue on this offense, but this week could be tough sledding when they play the Ravens. The Ravens are one of the top rushing defenses in the NFL, and one of the worst passing defenses. They are the biggest pass funnel defense in the NFL. The Rams have more than enough passing offense firepower to succeed without a big game from Sony Michel.
