In fantasy football dynasty leagues, there’s only a few moments where you can sell high on a player. One of the best times to do so is right after the NFL draft. Some players that survive the draft can see their fantasy value plummet with the addition of a veteran post-draft. Other times, offseason programs can muddy the water on a player’s future, limiting their return value in a trade. So before that can happen, here are players to sell high on prior to the start of the season.
For the purpose of this exercise, all players listed in this article had a Superflex ADP inside the top-100 players – based on DLF’s Superflex ranks.
You can find my post-draft dynasty buys here.
D’Andre Swift, RB – Philadelphia Eagles
The fantasy community loves D’Andre Swift going to the Philadelphia Eagles. For NFL purposes, it’s a great move for the Eagles. For fantasy football players, Swift is a player you want to sell now. If you’re unfamiliar, I mentioned Swift as one of my sell high players prior to the start of NFL free agency. As you can clearly see, my stance hasn’t changed despite the change of scenery for Swift.
There’s a number of reasons why I believe that the Eagles won’t revive Swift’s fantasy career.
Swift is a pass-catching back, first and foremost. He’s an explosive runner, but lacks the patience and vision as a pure running back. With the Eagles, Swift joins a team that targets running backs at the lowest rate in the NFL. Mobile quarterbacks don’t target running backs at the same rate as non-mobile quarterbacks. They also steal valuable touches from their RB counterparts, too.
In 2022, Miles Sanders had a career year, with 259 rushing attempts for 1269 yards and 11 touchdowns. Even with those numbers, he finished outside of RB1 territory in PPR leagues as the RB15. Swift clearly has a higher receiving floor than Sanders, but we’ll never see him come close to those rushing totals.
In Philadelphia, Swift will be in a muddy backfield fighting for touches with Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell. Considering Swift’s 5.5 YPC (yards per carry) comes on the back of facing 8+ defenders in the box at the league-lowest rate (6.6%) and his RYOE% (rushing yards over expected percentage) was fourth-lowest in the NFL, it’s safe to say that Swift won’t be used too often in pure running situations.
Coming into the NFL, I loved Swift’s profile. Now, I’m selling him where ever I can. I’ve personally traded Swift for JK Dobbins in nearly every league I’m in. If you aren’t a fan of Dobbins, Swift still holds great value. He can be traded for a 1st round pick quite easily – and potentially more.
Don’t be stuck holding the bag on a descending asset. Sell Swift high while you can.
Rachaad White, RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The initial reaction from the fantasy football community was that Rachaad White was a post-draft winner (which alone, should signal a sell high window). And, on the surface, it does seem that way. But for dynasty leagues, we’re looking further than one year ahead. That’s why White makes my sell high list.
Last season, White wasn’t what you would call an efficient runner. In fact, he was one of least efficient rushers in the NFL.
Rachaad White's 2022 rushing efficiency
Rush Grade: 53rd out of 60 qualified RBs
Yards after cont/att: 58th
Explosive Run%: 57th
MTF/att: 56th
RYOE/att: 42nd among 48 qualified RBsTB's OL was bad but man this is rough. Have to think White is just a satellite back atp
— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) April 26, 2023
Supporting the efficiency metrics above, the graph below shows Rachaad White was more of a plodder than an electric player with the ball in his hand.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are clearly in a transition phase, so there’s a chance White does well from a fantasy football standpoint this season. The more likely scenario is the Buccaneers add a veteran or siphon touches to Sean Tucker.
Rachaad White is already 24 and didn’t receive great draft capital (91st overall). He hasn’t shown to be an elite player at the NFL level, either. Running backs only see their value decrease in fantasy football. For a player with efficiency metrics like White’s, it’s better to get off the train early before it runs off the tracks.
At the moment, you can still fetch a 1st round pick for White. Trades like that should be a no-brainer. Take the pick and run.
Oh yeah, big winner from last night was Rachaad White. Have 1.06 and 1.12 already. No Brainer deal pic.twitter.com/et9g1Fn0jm
— JFJ (@fozberry64) April 29, 2023
Christian Watson, WR – Green Bay Packers
This pick will probably be unpopular, but I think it’s the right move to make. After all, when everyone is claiming a player is a buy, more likely than not, they’re a sell.
After starting the year slow, Christian Watson had a great three-game stretch that saw him catch 12 passes for 265 yards and six touchdowns in Week 10-12. The next five games weren’t as great, however.
After his historic three-game run, Watson finished his last five games with 19 catches for 258 yards and one touchdown (he also had a 46-yard touchdown run during this stretch). Watson came back to earth on a yards per reception basis, from averaging 22.08 YPR to 13.58. He also returned to fantasy obscurity. Watson went from the WR3 in PPR leagues during that three-week stretch, to WR49 in the last final games of the season – with his only fantasy-relevant game in Week 18.
Finishing 9th in aDOT last season (min. 50 targets), it’s clear Watson’s been used as a deep threat in the NFL. That’s not by accident. Watson isn’t an efficient route-runner. My comparison coming out of college was that of another Green Bay Packers‘ wide receiver, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Their RAS profiles are pretty similar, too.
And, looking at his Reception Perception profile prior to his rookie season, it seems like that comparison would check out.
Matt Harmon recently announced he’ll be analyzing Y2 wide receivers shortly, so we’ll soon find out if Watson’s improved since being in the NFL – but based on the film, it seems unlikely.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Packers drafted Jayden Reed 50th overall. Reed is an excellent route-runner who knows how to sit in zones and work the middle of the field. I think Reed will start the season as the Packers’ best wide receiver, and it seems I may not be alone in that line of thinking.
I was so upset when @andybehrens stole my "Jayden Reed could be better than Christian Watson" hot take on the post-draft podcast pic.twitter.com/m78Mw94PCs
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) May 2, 2023
Watson won’t have the luxury of playing in a desolate receiving room of aging players. He’s also no longer connected to Aaron Rodgers. Watson will be catching passes from Jordan Love, and it’s anyone’s guess as to how that will work out for fantasy football.
Almost comically, Watson is the WR20 in Superflex Dynasty ADP. You can trade him for a 1st round pick in any draft – and potentially more. There’s a chance Watson hits his ceiling of Mike Williams, but more likely than not he settles at his floor of MVS.
Dameon Pierce, RB – Houston Texans
If I’m going to be frank, I love Dameon Pierce. Day 3 running backs who create fantasy football value pump blood through my veins. With that said, Pierce is a clear sell high candidate going into this season.
Pierce was put in a workhorse role last season for the Texans and played well. He finished with 220 carries for 939 yards and 4 touchdowns with 165 receiving yards on 30 receptions (and 1 touchdown) in 14 games. He also had zero competition for touches. No one else on the Texans surpassed 50 rushing attempts.
Despite having the fourth-most carries by Week 14, Pierce was only the RB22 in PPG (overall RB15). He would finish the season as the RB28.
This year, Pierce will share touches with Devin Singletary. Singletary isn’t a sexy name in the fantasy community, but he’s no slouch as an NFL running back. Considering how poor of a blocker Pierce it, it’s likely we see Singletary take over pass-set opportunities this year. Pierce is a great 2-down back, but I think his ceiling is a RB2. Given his Day 3 draft capital, you’re better off selling before he’s replaced.
League values always very, but at the moment, Pierce can be traded for a late ’23 1st – and quite easily for a ’23 2nd. I’d rather take a gamble on players with Day 1 or Day 2 draft capital over a Day 3 running back on a team working its way back from the basement – and so should you.
