The Dallas Cowboys’ 3rd round selection out of South Alabama has the potential to be a fantasy football sleeper in 2022.
One player I find myself drafting late in fantasy football startups – in both redraft and dynasty – is Dallas Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert. The South Alabama product put up excellent collegiate numbers, and looks to continue that with the Cowboys.
Michael Gallup is unlikely to be healthy to start the season, which means Tolbert finds himself battling James Washington for the WR2 spot behind CeeDee Lamb. The WR2 on the Cowboys brings instant fantasy-relevance. We’re going to break down the film, the analytics, and what he can work on to see if Tolbert’s worth the hype going into this season.
The Film
When looking at the film, there’s plenty to like about the Cowboys’ rookie. Let’s start with the positives, then work our way to what he can improve on.
Plays through contact in-route
One of the first things you notice about Tolbert is his strength. Press coverage doesn’t bother him, and neither does contact past the LOS.
In the play above, Tolbert doesn’t let the defender effect his momentum after changing direction. Instead, Tolbert plays through the contact and secures the catch, plus YAC.
Being able to muscle-through defenders is important; especially in low aDOT routes. The likelihood of a flag getting called in these situations is slim, while the big play potential is great. We’ll see a prime example of that in the next clip.
This clip is quite similar to the first. Tolbert gets inside leverage on press coverage and uses his strength to continue into his change of direction despite being held. This time, however, he takes it 68 yards to the house. Tolbert’s combination of strength in-route and run after the catch ability is huge. In Kellen Moore’s offense, Tolbert can become a nightmare matchup for defenses.
Great ball-tracking ability
Given the multitude of quarterbacks at South Alabama and the lack of arm talent, Tolbert was often seen adjusting to passes thrown his way. His background as a baseball player may have helped his awareness in this regard. Tolbert is an excellent ball-tracker and bailed out the quarterback more times than not.
In fact, many of Tolbert’s highlight reel catches involve him coming back to an underthrow and high-pointing the ball. You’ll see an example of that in this next clip.
A player you are gonna to get very familiar with for 2022… South Alabama wide receiver Jalen Tolbert (@Jalen8Tolbert) rocks the baby after pushing vertically, separating and winning at the catch point for six. pic.twitter.com/DSTJrYIO8J
— Ryan Roberts (@RiseNDraft) May 2, 2021
Ryan does a good job explaining the above play, and highlighting my point. Tolbert wasn’t just successful against low-level competition, though; as high Senior Bowl would show.
The question people will have is if Jalen Tolbert can do what he did at South Alabama against high level completion.
These senior bowl reps highlight his strengths
– smooth
-top level tracking
– Route running crisp pic.twitter.com/bdBSgWhzGT— (Foots The King) (@FootsDaKing) April 30, 2022
You’ll see a lot of the strengths in Tolbert’s game; both on game film and during his Senior Bowl reps. He has an excellent double-move that allows him to get by defenders. He’s also very crisp at changing direction on in, and out-cut routes as well.
A couple of silky smooth Jalen Tolbert routes from the Senior Bowl. pic.twitter.com/NSRBCi5yPj
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) April 14, 2022
Football IQ
An aspect of WRs that isn’t exactly heralded is their football IQ. Because route-running, size, and highlight plays make up the vast majority of what the average fan looks for, football IQ can sometimes be thrown to the wayside. But just as reading the defense is important for quarterbacks, it’s also important for wide receivers; especially when playing against zone coverage.
This is another area where I was impressed with Tolbert. He understands zone concepts; where to find the soft spots for maximum yardage while giving himself the ability to create YAC.
Other Notes
- Jalen Tolbert’s ability to play both inside and outside will help him mightily at the next level. On a Cowboys team where diversity will create playing time, Tolbert could find himself in the starting lineup immediately.
- He was put in motion a lot; and oftentimes be used as the 3rd option on the screen in RPOs.
- He understands spacing and has the ability to find the open part of the field.
The Analytics
As we’ve seen above, there’s a lot to like about Jalen Tolbert’s film. Let’s see if the analytics provide hope or dismay with his potential going forward.
While Jalen Tolbert doesn’t ‘wow’ most people with his workout metrics, it’s his body of work that causes viewers to raise an eye. His 51.2% dominator rating was good for the 97th percentile, while his 33.4% target share hit the 96th percentile mark. In other words, he was fed the ball and dominated with it.
RAS
If you aren’t familiar with RAS – Relative Athletic Score – its name is essentially self-explanatory. Players are graded on a scale of 0.00-10.00 relative to their positional counterparts. The closer the player is to 10, the more athletic they are in comparison to their positional peers.
With a RAS of 8.55, Jalen Tolbert finds himself in the 85th percentile of all WRs graded within the last 35 years. Considering his weight is one of his few negative traits – and that can easily be fixed – seeing Tolbert grade out highly in RAS is an excellent sign.
Reception Perception
If you aren’t familiar with Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, you should be. In my opinion, it’s one of the best tools to evaluate wide receivers. When looking at Harmon’s RP, Tolbert finds himself having plenty of success by route in his final season at South Alabama.
Complementing that beautiful chart above, Tolbert found success in a variety of ways. Per Harmon, Tolbert had a 70.5% success rate against man coverage, with a 81.2% rate against zone. He also ranked 3rd in contested catch rate, at 81.8%.
The Bad
We’ve seen the good from Jalen Tolbert thus far. From the film to analytics, Tolbert has the potential to be a star in Dallas. But with every prospect, there are things he can improve if he wants to reach his full potential.
Drops
Throughout his tenure at South Alabama, Tolbert had an issue with drops. With a career drop rate of 8.4%, there’s definitely room for improvement. Thankfully, this isn’t due to hand weakness or a lack of strength. Personally, I don’t put much stock into drops, especially when a player is targeted as much as Tolbert was. That said, it’s an issue nonetheless.
Routes
While I praised Tolbert in this regard earlier in the article, there is room for improvement. When running certain routes, Tolbert had the tendency to be ‘loopy’ in his cuts. At the next level this could provide a ‘tell’ to defenders and cause timing issues with the quarterback. At the Senior Bowl Tolbert seemed to have been working on this though, and is something that will be coached going forward.
Run Blocking
Considering the WR versatility Tolbert has, this isn’t necessarily the killer it could be if he was strictly a slot WR. That said, considering the strength he’d shown in his routes, this was disappointing to see. Tolbert was often beat as a blocker and wasn’t as engaging as you’d like to see. At the NFL level, this could cause him to lose snaps in certain situations.
The Verdict
Being drafted to the Dallas Cowboys was wonderful for Jalen Tolbert. Given his ability to play Slot and Outside, Kellen Moore should find plenty of uses for him; allowing CeeDee Lamb to move throughout personnel packaging as well.
With Michael Gallup likely to miss the first half of the season, Jalen Tolbert is the player I’m expecting to take over the WR2 position ahead of James Washington. With the passing attack that Dallas has, that could mean fantasy relevance, and fast.
In Redraft leagues, Tolbert is going as the 182nd overall as the WR67; aka, a WR6. In dynasty leagues, In dynasty leagues, it’s not much different; with a startup ADP of 136 overall, and a mid-2nd round rookie draft ADP.
Right now, I consider both ADPs a steal for the potential fantasy production Tolbert can produce. As we get closer to the start of the season, I expect that ADP to rise. Get on the Tolbert train now while you can, and look like a genius when he takes over the WR2 spot for the Cowboys this season. Even when Michael Gallup returns, Tolbert should still hold value.
