We hear it every season. Quarterbacks are one of the easiest positions to replace off the waiver wire in fantasy football. For example, last season there were 49 different quarterbacks who put up a top 12 weeks at least once. In addition, there were 22 different quarterbacks that put up at least one top 3 week. With so many QBs having fantasy relevance in a season, it can be hard to justify using an early pick on one. But as more fantasy players draft QBs later, there is more value to be found early in drafts.
Over the last few seasons I have used the studs or duds approach in fantasy football. If one of the top QBs seems like a value, I will draft them. Otherwise, I will wait until the late rounds and grab the 12th QB off the board. Going into this season, there’s a few quarterbacks I’m targeting if the situation is right. If you missed my favorite values at RB, you can view them here.
Early Draft
Lamar Jackson, QB4, 49th Overall
The 5th round may not be the earliest, but this year it is the earliest I will consider a QB. The top 3 QBs are going in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds, respectively. That is a price higher than I am willing to pay. I prefer to use those early picks on RB and WR to lock up those positions. But in the 5th round it is difficult to find a running back who is almost a lock to have 800 rushing yards. Lamar on the other hand averaged 63.3 yards per game and averaged over 900 rushing yards per season. In Jackson’s two seasons with at least 15 starts he has rushed for at least 1000 yards.
When it comes to Jackson we also get the benefit of his passing yards. You may think of Jackson as a rushing QB, but he has actually been pretty efficient for fantasy football players. According to Player Profiler, Jackson ranked top 10 in nearly all efficiency metrics in 2021.
Whether Lamar is passing the ball or rushing it, he is always a threat for the big play. This dual threat ability makes him one of the most dangerous players on the field.
Tyrann Mathieu on Lamar Jackson: “Anytime he has the football in his hands, he’s the most dangerous person in the world.” pic.twitter.com/zTm5KGTAyY
— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) August 20, 2022
This makes him one of the most valuable fantasy football assets; and you can currently draft him with your early 5th round pick. If you are picking at the end of the 4th I would absolutely consider drafting him so you do not miss out on the chance in the 5th.
Middle Rounds
Derek Carr, QB14, 108th Overall
Carr is almost always undervalued during fantasy football draft season. Not only has he been undervalued, but his value has been decreasing each season. According to Fantasy Pros ADP, Carr was drafted as the 176th, 185th, and 201st player off the board in 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively. What is even more interesting is that Carr actually increased his passing yards and touchdowns in each of the previous seasons.
This year however, Carr’s ADP has skyrocketed to the end of the 9th round. This is for good reason. In addition to keeping Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, the Raiders made one very big addition. Carr’s former college teammate Davante Adams is now a Raider. This addition not only gives Carr another great pass catcher, but should help take some coverage from the two that he already has great chemistry with. The solid group of pass catchers already in the room, plus Adams should help Carr on his way to continuing his 4,000 passing yard streak.
List of QBs to throw for 4,000+ yards in EACH of the last 3 seasons:
Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Patrick Mahomes
DEREK CARREven more impressive without a clear-cut WR1 😤 pic.twitter.com/eeI8SgQD0e
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) August 19, 2022
In addition to his productivity, Carr has been very accurate. According to Player Profiler, Carr has finished top 3 in accuracy rating in three of the last four seasons. If Carr can continue to be an efficient and productive passer he should be able to beat his current ADP.
If you are planning to wait on QB till the middle rounds you should really consider Carr in the 9th. At this point in the draft you already have most of your starters set; you are really just looking for high upside guys that could get into your starting lineup a few times. There are a lot of players in this range of the draft that have the potential to be fantasy football roster cloggers who never get into your starting lineup. Drafting Carr here allows you to fill a starting lineup spot, and use your less valuable spots on your dart throw players.
Late Round
Matt Ryan, QB21, 152nd Overall
Matt Ryan has been one of the most consistent QBs in the league since being drafted in 2008. Prior to 2021, Ryan had a 10 year streak of passing for at least 4000 yards and at least 20 touchdowns. He only missed that mark in 2021 by 32 yards. This was pretty impressive considering the group of pass catchers the Falcons had to support Ryan.
This season, Ryan is out of Atlanta for the first time in his career. He is joining an improved Colts team that is looking to redeem themselves after just missing the playoffs in 2021. The QB position was arguably one of the Colt’s biggest needs entering the offseason and they addressed that early.
With pass catchers like Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell, Mo Allie-Cox, Nyheim Hines, and Jonathan Taylor, Matt Ryan is surrounded by weapons and is in a great position to be a great fantasy football QB. In addition to that group of veterans, Rookie Alec Pierce has been shining and camp – and Ryan has had only good things to say.
Colts QB Matt Ryan believes that Alec Pierce possess the traits that it takes to become ‘a great player’ in the league. pic.twitter.com/AQ5WD9TKNf
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) August 19, 2022
With this group of weapons, Ryan is in a position to go over 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns for the 11th time in his career. At the moment you can draft Ryan in the 13th round, or later. If your fantasy football league has people that still draft more than 1 QB you may need to draft him. In leagues that managers only draft 1 QB, you should monitor for him on the waiver wire as a streamer.
