With the start of the NFL season around the corner, I’ve broken down the quarterbacks into my own tiers for fantasy football. For each tier there will be player projections, as well as explanations for each player in the tier.
Tier 1
Tier 1 has Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. All three of these quarterbacks have elite arm talent combined with running upside in high-powered offenses. All three can easily finish as the QB1 in fantasy football. In a 1QB league, I would take whomever you can get for the cheapest.
Projected Stat Lines
Josh Allen: 4,564 Pass Yards, 37 Pass TDs, 16 INTs, 500 Rushing Yards, 6 Rushing TDs. 384.56 Fantasy Points.
Justin Herbert: 5,026 Pass Yards, 37 Pass TDs, 15 INTs, 303 Rushing Yards, 3 Rushing TDs. 371.34 Fantasy Points.
Patrick Mahomes: 5,049 Pass Yards, 36 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 398 Rushing Yards, 2.1 Rushing TDs. 370.36 Fantasy Points.
Tier 2
In Tier 2 we start with three elite rushing quarterbacks. Murray, Jackson, and Hurts all rack up points on the ground and have passing upside. Murray and Hurts got major skill position upgrades surrounding them. Meanwhile, Lamar has had a full offseason to get healthy and is in a contract year. I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder all season.
Rounding out Tier 2 are three guys who can all pass for 5,000+ yards in the best-case scenario. None of these guys have any real rushing upside besides Dak, but all of them will have enough yards through the air to finish as a top ten QB for fantasy football.
Projected Stat Lines
Kyler Murray: 4,650 Pass Yards, 29 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 503 Rushing Yards, 5.9 Rushing TDs. 359.7 Fantasy Points.
Lamar Jackson: 3,331 Pass Yards, 25 Pass TDs, 17 INTs, 1,155 Rushing Yards, 6.5 Rushing TDs. 353.74 Fantasy Points.
Jalen Hurts: 3,526 Pass Yards, 18 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 879 Rushing Yards, 11.2 Rushing TDs. 340.14 Fantasy Points.
Tom Brady: 4,750 Pass Yards, 37 Pass TDs, 11 INTs, 51 Rushing Yards, 1.7 Rushing TDs. 331.3 Fantasy Points.
Dak Prescott: 4,364 Pass Yards, 35 Pass TDs, 11 INTs, 235 Rushing Yards, 2 Rushing TDs. 328.06 Fantasy Points.
Aaron Rodgers: 4,050 Pass Yards, 36 Pass TDs, 6 INTs, 96 Rushing Yards, 2.8 Rushing TDs. 320.4 Fantasy Points.
Tier 3
This Tier is where it starts to get a little tricky. Stafford has a lingering elbow injury that could limit him later in the season. The Rams seem confident he is 100% and will play all season, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Following Stafford is Burrow, who is due for some regression after his breakout season last year. Burrow is surrounded by elite weapons and should still be a QB1 in fantasy football, but should also fall slightly from his QB8 finish last season.
Carr is in a great spot this year with the addition of Davante Adams to an already great offense. He has almost zero rushing ability which limits his overall upside, but Carr is a great late QB that should be a consistent, safe option. Look to stack him with Adams, Waller, or Renfrow.
Russell Wilson had an abysmal year last year on all accounts. Wilson had a full season to recover from last year’s hand injury and is also in a substantially better offense. If he is not limited in the run game, Wilson has a chance to blow past his projections. Target him late in fantasy football drafts.
Rounding out the third tier is Kirk Cousins. Kirk finished as the QB11 last season and QB12 in PPG. You can expect similar results this season as Kirk almost always hits 4,000+ yards and 30+ total TDs.
Projected Stat Lines
Matthew Stafford: 4,689 Pass Yards, 39 Pass TDs, 16 INTs, 56 Rushing Yards, 0 Rushing TDs. 317.16 Fantasy Points.
Joe Burrow: 4,532 Pass Yards, 33 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 176 Rushing Yards, 2 Rushing TDs. 314.88 Fantasy Points.
Derek Carr: 5,0008 Pass Yards, 29 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 101 Rushing Yards, 0 Rushing TDs. 298.42 Fantasy Points.
Russell Wilson: 4,030 Pass Yards, 30 Pass TDs, 10 INTs, 220 Rushing Yards, 2 Rushing TDs. 295.2 Fantasy Points.
Kirk Cousins: 4,155 Pass Yards, 30 Pass TDs, 6 INTs, 101 Rushing Yards, 0.7 Rushing TDs. 288.5 Fantasy Points.
Tier 4
There are a few quarterbacks in tier 4 that I am hyper-targeting across all my fantasy football redraft leagues. First is Trey Lance. With the recent Jimmy G backup signing, there has been a lot of Trey Lance FUD filling my Twitter feed. The bottom line is the 49ers gave up way too much, and have given Lance all first-team reps in camp. He is their starter and Jimmy G wouldn’t have taken a $20+ Million pay-cut unless he knew he was playing the backup role. Lance has elite running upside, get him late in as many fantasy football drafts as you can.
Tua saw a massive offensive upgrade and has running upside; I expect him to perform better than last season.
Fields saw plenty of flashes, but he was limited by injuries and coaching last season. Fields being fully healthy with a new coach and another year of training camp makes him a breakout candidate in year two.
Rounding out this tier is Lawrence, Ryan, and Mac Jones. The only one here with rushing upside is Lawrence, but his surrounding skill players are serviceable at best. Matt Ryan and Mac Jones won’t do anything to surprise you but should be consistent late-round options in case you find yourself missing out on QBs earlier in the draft.
Projected Stat Lines
Trey Lance: 2,361 Pass Yards, 20 Pass TDs, 9 INTs, 733 Rushing Yards, 4.4 Rushing TDs. 266.94 Fantasy Points.
Tua Tagovailoa: 3,6998 Pass Yards, 24 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 168 Rushing Yards, 3.8 Rushing TDs. 255.52 Fantasy Points.
Justin Fields: 3,393 Pass Yards, 13 Pass TDs, 18 INTs, 762 Rushing Yards, 3.6 Rushing TDs. 249.52 Fantasy Points.
Trevor Lawrence: 4,218 Pass Yards, 17 Pass TDs, 20 INTs, 387 Rushing Yards, 2.3 Rushing TDs. 249.22 Fantasy Points.
Matt Ryan: 4,205 Pass Yards, 21 Pass TDs, 13 INTs, 87 Rushing Yards, 1.1 Rushing TDs. 241.5 Fantasy Points.
Mac Jones: 3,978 Pass Yards, 23 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 135 Rushing Yards, 0 Rushing TDs. 236.62 Fantasy Points.
Tier 5
In the last tier we have the best of the scraps. I expected Winston’s projections to be higher, but he is due for some TD-Rate regression. This makes sense when you consider he had a game last year where he threw five touchdowns on under twenty passes.
Tannehill fell off a cliff last year but does have rushing upside and could be worth a late flier if you are desperate.
Zach Wilson is someone I originally wanted to target late, but after a rough preseason showing and injuring himself, he falls back into irrelevancy in 1QB fantasy football leagues.
Davis Mills could break these projections if he makes the jump that many expect him to.
The addition of Laviska Shenault in Carolina gives a slight boost to Baker, but overall, I wouldn’t expect anything great fantasy-wise from him. You can apply the same logic to Goff.
Projected Stat Lines:
Jameis Winston: 3,452 Pass Yards, 22 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 245 Rushing Yards, 1.1 Rushing TDs. 229.18 Fantasy Points.
Ryan Tannehill: 3,009 Pass Yards, 17 Pass TDs, 11 INTs, 218 Rushing Yards, 5.6 Rushing TDs. 221.76 Fantasy Points.
Zach Wilson: 3,200 Pass Yards, 14 Pass TDs, 15 INTs, 254 Rushing Yards, 5.5 Rushing TDs. 212.4 Fantasy Points.
Carson Wentz: 2,792 Pass Yards, 21 Pass TDs, 5 INTs, 168 Rushing Yards, 0.8 Rushing TDs. 207.28 Fantasy Points.
Baker Mayfield: 3,421 Pass Yards, 17 Pass TDs, 9 INTs, 138 Rushing Yards, 1.1 Rushing TDs. 207.24 Fantasy Points.
Jared Goff: 3,677 Pass Yards, 18 Pass TDs, 12 INTs, 83 Rushing Yards, 0 Rushing TDs. 203.38 Fantasy Points.
Davis Mills: 3,589 Pass Yards, 19 Pass TDs, 11 INTs, 48 Rushing Yards, 0 Rushing TDs. 202.26 Fantasy Points.
Redraft QB Strategy
When Should I Draft a Quarterback?
When I am in a fantasy football redraft I tend to avoid the early round quarterbacks. Year after year fantasy managers take QBs like Mahomes in the early rounds, just for him to average 1.4 more PPG than a player like Dak Prescott who you can get six rounds later. I tend to wait a few rounds after the initial QB run to target someone in Tiers 3 – 4.
Which Players Should I Target Late in Drafts?
Some players I think may smash through their projections and are worth targeting in later rounds are Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins.
Another strategy I like to employ when drafting late round QBs is to try and stack whenever possible. By stacking our QB with a TE or WR from the same team, you are maximizing your weekly upside. When the WR catches passes, it is positive points for both your WR and QB who threw him the ball.
How Many QBs Should I Roster?
Simple answer, one. Unless your fantasy football league’s benches are egregiously deep, avoid rostering a second QB. You have much higher upside by rostering players that can be used in the FLEX spot instead. In most one-quarterback leagues there are plenty of streaming options on the waiver wire for when your starting QB is on a bye week or if they happen to get injured during the season.
