Fantasy Football – QB & WR Impact of Aaron Rodgers trade

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Now that Aaron Rodgers is on the move, what is the fantasy football outlook for the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers? 

The trade fantasy football – and NFL fans – have been waiting for has finally happened. Aaron Rodgers is heading to the New York Jets. The trade is not technically official yet, as Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst stated in his press conference Monday. But in the eyes of the public, once Adam Schefter tweets about it, we assume it is a done deal. We can also assume that the biggest reason this trade took so long to go down is that both organizations really had no leverage.

For the Packers, their 39-year-old quarterback had stated on the Pat McAfee show that he went into the darkness 90% retired and returned to the light with the intention to play for the Jets. They also owed him more than double the Oakland A’s payroll. The heir-apparent wanted to be traded if Rodgers was still around. They needed a deal done before the draft to gain draft capital for this season. 

For the Jets, they have the longest active playoff drought in the league. They’ve botched consecutive quarterback picks in the top 3 of the draft. They are out of QB options without a trade and according to the CBS FFT Podcast; Rodgers could step in and throw 351 uninterrupted interceptions to begin his Jets career and still have a better TD to INT ratio than the combined Jets starters since 2008. Most importantly for the Jets, they have a young, talented roster with explosive weapons on offense that desperately needs a competent QB. 

In the end, did the Jets overpay? Probably. But like we say in the fantasy football community – sometimes you have to go get your guy.

While we are on the subject, let’s take a look at how this trade affects us in our world of fantasy football. I am focusing only on the 2023 season for this article. Before I dive into the players, I want to lay out what the quarterback market is going to look like for redraft leagues. 

When we get a grasp of what ADP will look like before long, there should be eight names at the top of the quarterback landscape that I view in two tiers. Your top tier consists of three players – Mahomes, Hurts and Allen. The second tier brings you five names- Fields, Burrow, Herbert, Jackson and Lawrence. You can nitpick the orders and even break up the second tier, but this will more than likely be your top eight at the position when your fantasy draft arrives.

Following this, there is a giant clump of quarterbacks that fill a third tier. You can make a case between eight and 15 names in this tier. Every set of rankings you will look at will shuffle the order, but this will be your low-end QB1 options through the majority of your QB2 options. I expect that you will see Aaron Rodgers towards the top of this cluster while finding Jordan Love’s name somewhere in the middle. 

Now that we have established that, let’s dive into the players. 

JETS

Aaron Rodgers

Why not start off with the most polarizing name? The four-time MVP will reunite with his offensive coordinator – Nathaniel Hackett – who worked with Rodgers when he won his last two MVP awards. Rodgers also has regained something that was around for those last two awards but was missing last year – an alpha WR1 in Garrett Wilson. 

I would imagine the new-look Jets offense will be closer with their pass/run splits to what the Packers looked like from 2019-2021. That was when Rodgers averaged 542 pass attempts in those seasons versus the 627 that the Jets attempted last year.

With my first run of projections, I did not want to stray too far from what his averages were over the three years paired with Hackett in Green Bay. I kept his yards per attempt and touchdown rate lower than that three-year average and came away with his 2023 projections at 4,200 yards, 36 TDs and 8 INTs. That would put Rodgers at 21.86 fantasy points per game. In a six-point per passing TD league, he would have finished just ahead of Tua at QB7 in points per game (minimum of 12 games played). 

These initial projections put Rodgers higher than I will have him ranked. If the ADP follows that, he could end up being a nice value when your fantasy football draft rolls around. 

Garrett Wilson 

In the words of Cris Collinsworth – now here’s a guy that just had his fantasy value skyrocket. Garrett Wilson showed he can be a fantasy football stud with the likes of Mike White and Joe Flacco. As long as the guy throwing him the football did not share the same last name, he was a must-start option. Wilson finished the season with 83 receptions on 147 targets, 1103 yards and 4 TDs. It is no surprise that I have him exceeding those numbers with a new signal caller. 

We know that Rodgers is not afraid to concentrate targets to his best WR. In this first round of projections, I have Wilson at a 27% target share. One thing that also stood out to me was the 4 TDs. The TD rate last season from the quarterback position in New York was 2.4%. Meanwhile, Rodgers doubled that last season in a down year. 

I came away with Wilson at 106 receptions on 156 targets, 1,327 yards and 8 TDs. That puts him at 17.05 fantasy points per game and would make him WR8 in PPR with a minimum of 12 games played last season (he’s WR9 if you add in Cooper Kupp’s 9 games played). 

Packers

Jordan Love 

We have yet to see the full Matt LaFleur offense in Green Bay. Now, there is no one in the way to stop it. We do not know how heavy of a rush attack that will be, or how much LaFleur will let Love sling the ball around. As I said at the top of this article, Love will be in a log-jam of quarterbacks in fantasy football rankings and ADP. I imagine most will have him as a mid-QB2. I do think he will surprise people this year with his performance, especially if Christian Watson stays healthy and the Packers add a weapon early in the NFL draft. For now, it is too early for me to run projections on this offense just yet; but I have a feeling I will be one of the higher guys on Love this season 

Christian Watson 

We have seen the Love-Watson connection briefly in the fourth quarter in Week 12 against the Eagles that included a 63-yard house call by Watson. I am not going to sit here and do the joke where you take the stats from one half (78 yards and 1 TD) and multiply them over the course of the season (2,652 yards and 34 TDs) just for some absurd stat line. 

What I will say is that Watson is an athletic freak. He could easily position himself as a WR1 in fantasy football as long as he stays on the field. I view him kind of like Mike Williams for the Chargers. Every week you play him knowing that he has the chance to for 120 yards and 2 TDs; but you also know he will toss in a couple two-catch duds throughout the season. Watson is someone I will be actively looking to draft next fall. 

Romeo Doubs 

The preseason darling of fantasy football last year, Romeo Doubs had a bit of an up and down year. He found the endzone in three games last season and finished at WR12, WR23 and WR19 in those games (depending on format). For where his expectations were during rookie drafts last summer, I would say Doubs posted three more top-24 performances than what was expected of him. 

Doubs did benefit from early season injuries suffered by Christian Watson. That should help build his case for being drafted in redraft leagues this season. If Watson misses any time in 2023, Doubs will be the hot waiver-wire add, if he is not already rostered. 

I see Doubs’ ADP around the 8th or 9th round in redraft – if the Packers do not add any receiving weapons in the draft. If the Packers do draft a WR or TE with a high pick (fingers crossed they do), then Doubs will drop into the double-digit rounds. He will be someone you will want to stash throughout the preseason if your league typically drafts early. 

In the end, Thursday night will most likely determine the Packers WR’s fantasy football value. If they select a WR (JSN please!) or TE (honestly hurts me to think about) then the Packers offense could have some built-up hype this offseason. If the front office passes on a first round pass-catcher, then the players listed above could end up being nice values when your fantasy draft rolls around. 

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