Four weeks of fantasy football is now in the books. We now have a decent sample size of statistics to go on when it comes to individual performances.
League Winners owner Thomas Christopher was kind enough to allow me to gather some of my Dynasty Lounge Slack group members to complete this re-drafting round one mock draft.
The round one re-do will be in the form of a 1QB league type with PPR scoring and no tight end premium points applied. To help us better understand the changes that we may see, let’s look at Sleeper’s last ADP data in this format from September 7th before the season started.
- 1.01 Christian Mccaffrey
- 1.02 Dalvin Cook
- 1.03 Alvin Kamara
- 1.04 Derrick Henry
- 1.05 Ezekiel Elliot
- 1.06 Nick Chubb
- 1.07 Saquon Barkley
- 1.08 Jonathan Taylor
- 1.09 Tyreek Hill
- 1.10 Davante Adams
- 1.11 Travis Kelce
- 1.12 Aaron Jones
Ok now that we have some information to compare, lets dive right in with the redrafting round one mock and see how it unfolds!
1.01 Derrick Henry (Tom Helles)
Let the King reign! CMC was going at this spot in most drafts, but you can’t ignore what Derrick Henry has done up to this point. He’s been given a full workload this year, going over 100 yards in three out of four games, including a monster 182-yard three-touchdown performance in Week 2. What’s setting him apart is his efficiency in the passing game, collecting 14 receptions on 15 targets through four weeks.
1.02 Ezekiel Elliott (Jeremy Shulman)
I considered Christian McCaffrey here, but I love Zeke’s elite offense. His workload split keeps him fresh, and he still gets goal-line opportunity. Aside from a down week one against Tampa, Ezekiel Elliott has been exceptional. I’ll take the current RB3 over the already-injured McCaffrey.
1.03 Austin Ekeler (Matthew Morris)
Sitting at 1.03, the options were plentiful. It was tempting to grab Christian McCaffrey here and walk away smiling. However, I am genuinely concerned that this hamstring injury will linger throughout the season – even if he comes back ‘healthy’.
With that being said, Austin Ekeler was the obvious choice for me here. Following a surprising Week 1 with zero targets, Ekeler has caught 18/20 targets for 141 yards and two touchdowns in the last three games. Tack on a 50/283/2 statline on the ground, and Ekeler is a PPR gem. Before the season, one of the biggest concerns with Ekeler was how much work he would see in the red zone. So far, his red zone stats have been very promising. Ekeler catches upward of 70% of the running back red zone opportunity for the Chargers offense. Ekeler is the fantasy football RB2 thus far. The Chargers offense is just getting started.
1.04 Travis Kelce (Pruthvish Patel)
Travis Kelce is the safest pick in the first round. He is the de-facto WR 1A to Tyreek Hill in the NFL’s most explosive offensive. Kelce is set to eclipse 120+ targets for the fifth consecutive season. Kelce’s median target is at 7.5 per game and is the TE1 in fantasy football with 73.2 total points. Those points would make him WR9 so far in 2021 as well. His 18.3 PPG is second to only to Rob Gronkowski’s 19.5. Kelce gives a weekly advantage at the scariest position, with the highest weekly floor and the least risk.
1.05 Aaron Jones (Matt Alquiza)
He’s a little inconsistent, but Aaron Jones’ ceiling is as high as anyone elses. With my first-round pick, I want to draft a guy that can win me weeks and Jones is that guy. The offseason narrative was that AJ Dillion would steal touches from Jones, but that hasn’t been the case through four weeks. Jones’ ceiling is sky high and he has an outside shot at finishing as the overall RB1. Aaron Jones is an easy choice at the 1.05 in this exercise.
1.06 Christian McCaffrey (Zach Haugen)
Christian McCaffrey was the clear 1.02 to me in this exercise. I get it. The injuries feel like they are starting to pile up. Despite getting injured in the first half of one of his games and having only one touchdown on 68 touches, he is still the RB3 in fantasy football PPG. When healthy, he is the best fantasy asset since LaDainian Tomlinson.
1.07 Saquon Barkley (Kevin Richards)
I was between Najee and Saquon here. I couldn’t turn down the opportunity to grab a top-three running back in the seventh slot. We all know health has played into the reason for his slide. That question mark is enough for some not to roll the dice on him. As expected, he started a little slow coming off the injury.
Now through four weeks, he has turned in back-to-back 20+ point performances. He’s seen at least 13 carries each week for the last three weeks and a total of 13 targets in the last two games. The icing on the cake was his performance this past week against a stingy New Orleans defense. I hope people bought Saquon Barkley when they had their chance. A healthy Saquon Barkley will help people take home some hardware.
1.08 Tyreek Hill (Keith James)
With Saquon Barkley sniped one spot before my pick, it was hard to pass up the most dominating receiver in football. Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are simply the best knock-out punch in the NFL. In any week, Hill can win you a matchup all by himself. It was tempting to go Najee Harris, especially with the number of targets he is getting; but I look for league winners, and Tyreek Hill looks like a player that will win your leagues this year.
1.09 Najee Harris (Hunter Greene)
Najee Harris seems to be the only part of the Steelers offense that can provide the fantasy value we have associated with that team over the years. Harris is a true bell cow, and has 26 receptions for 178 yards over his first four NFL games. Najee Harris may have been going to in the 2nd round of fantasy football drafts a month ago, but I want the PPR machine here at the 1.09 for the purpose of this exercise.
1.10 Dalvin Cook (Damien Nash)
Snaps, targets, and rush share percentage aren’t a concern with the consensus RB2 during the preseason, Dalvin Cook. The concern is his physical running style, and lack of Derrick Henry’s injury resistant superpowers. Everyone knows he is one of the best running backs in the league when healthy. Cook is an actual bell-cow running back and one of the few players that can win you a week by himself.
1.11 Alvin Kamara (Joe O’Leary)
Seeing Cook and Alvin Kamara slide to the tail end of the first round compared to where they went a few weeks ago, looks a little off. I’m happy grabbing value on Kamara here at the 1.11. He’s off to a slow start through four games coming in at RB14.
The receiving work is a bit of a concern, sans Drew Brees. Kamara has just ten receptions on the year and is coming off a game where he wasn’t targeted out of the backfield. I’m not going to panic just yet, and try to stay the course. Despite the lack of receiving work, Kamara is seeing a ton of rushing volume with 20+ carries in three of four games. I’m expecting the touchdowns and receptions to come. He’s still an elite running back for fantasy football and the only weapon the Saints have on offense.
1.12 D’Andre Swift (Matt Cooper)
This may come as a surprise to some, given where D’Andre Swift was being drafted just four weeks ago (ADP 37). Swift is currently the RB7 in fantasy football through four weeks. He has seen the 2nd most targets among running backs. I think his talent can take that usage and turn it into fantasy goodness, as he’s currently 2nd in the entire NFL in YAC. I’m thrilled to take Swift here and still get an elite WR on the wrap-around.
