Fantasy Football Redraft: Early Draft Pick Strategy

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Breaking down the early draft pick strategy for fantasy football leagues.

One week, folks. That’s all we’ve got until the NFL season begins. After an offseason of players changing teams, the NFL draft, and countless social media discussions, we have finally reached that time where you can put your money where your mouth is. It’s draft day, baby! I don’t know about you, but for me, there is no more fun day in fantasy football than being on the clock and selecting the players to guide you. That’s why we are going to dive into this early draft pick strategy!

I am giving the fantasy managers fortunate enough to draw an early pick this season (1.01-1.04) the goods you can take to the bank; breaking down the first ten rounds and recommending the player in the ADP range I prefer. We may even stray a pick or two outside of it that we will call our wildcard pick. So strap in, folks. It will be a rollercoaster that you can choose to ride to the championship or watch your league mates take that ride to the top. Let’s hope you prefer the former. 

Caveat: I am a bold drafter who does not play for floor in fantasy football. If the floor game is for you, you might be in the wrong spot. For those of you who love to chase “upside,” do not let others shame you for swinging big, as you have arrived at the right place. Upside wins championships, and we love winning. That’s what we are going to do. I will be using FantasyPros 1QB PPR ADP with ESPN Fantasy Football roster settings.

Round 1 

Candidates: Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Ja’Marr Chase, Austin Ekeler

The wide receiver is all the rage in fantasy football, and you would expect Justin Jefferson to be the pick. WRONG! As much as I love Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, I am chasing a legendary season with the first pick. If you love floor, WR is the play here, but we are not a fan of chasing floor at the 1.01 (which is why I was so against Jonathon Taylor last season). I want a player who will give me a more significant edge in their position, and his name is Christian McCaffrey.

 

Wildcard: The pick is too easy. It is Mr. Steal Yo Girl Travis Kelce! He provides the most significant advantage in fantasy football. If you want a genuine edge, reach for Kelce. Building around a tight end may seem terrifying, but it’s a glorious experience.

Round 2

Candidates: Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, Jalen Hurts, Jaylen Waddle

Talk about the upside. Both quarterbacks offer what few other fantasy players can and would be my selection here. Meanwhile, JT’s contract situation and a mobile rookie QB who will not check down to the running back evaporates the upside case. He is a higher floor than a ceiling player in 2023. Jaylen Waddle is unlikely to be a top 5 wide receiver in fantasy. He can only do so much without high-end volume, no matter how efficient he is.

Wildcard: Amon-Ra St. Brown or Garrett Wilson. These two wide receivers will smash this season. Attached to one of the best offenses in the NFL with minimal competition for targets, they are the darkhorse contenders for the WR1 in fantasy football this season. If either falls into your lap, thank the rest of the league for the gift and enjoy the elite fantasy production.

Round 3

Candidates: Chris Olave, Devonta Smith, Najee Harris, Mark Andrews

As great as the wide receivers are, if everyone in this group hits this season, Mark Andrews will have the most consequential impact on wins and losses. The Baltimore Ravens have discussed opening up the offense; with new coordinator Todd Monken, Andrews should ball out. Andrews is the play if you cannot get Travis Kelce in round 1.

Wildcard: Jahymr Gibbs. I understand people’s concern with a rookie running back, but his skill set is built for PPR leagues. Every running back drafted as high as Gibbs in the past decade has finished RB11 or higher at the end of the season. The floor is extremely high, and the ceiling case is a league-winning running back in round 3.

Round 4

Candidates: Justin Fields, T.J. Hockenson, Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders

This is not a spot I like to be in. We have two of my fades this season in T.J. Hockeson and Miles Sanders available. If you have a quarterback already, Dameon Pierce is the pick. He was in the top 6 in opportunity share among running backs last season and is once again deployed as a true bellcow in the Texans’ offense. If his receiving role increases this season, he could find his way inside the top 12 fantasy running backs.

Wildcard: Keenan Allen going off the board at WR19 is money in the bank. I understand the age concerns, but Allen has the potential to earn 150+ targets in one of the best offenses in the league. I’m riding with Allen until the wheels fall off.

Round 5

Candidates: George Kittle, DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins, Darren Waller

Darren Waller is the last of the tight ends I am fully confident in starting. He has the upside of George Kittle without having to block, and has zero target competition. The only way Waller does not beat his ADP is if he were to suffer an injury. He will be a focal point of the offense in 2023.

Wildcard: Christian Watson was one of the bigger fantasy surprises for me as a rookie. He is a terror with the ball in his hands and the WR1 in that offense. I’m not worried about Aaron Rodgers leaving; the player is just too talented of a weapon for me to fade.

Round 6

Candidates: Javonte Williams, Tyler Lockett, Isiah Pacheco, D’Andre Swift

Javonte Williams has faded into oblivion this offseason, and I do not understand it. Javonte has cleared every hurdle regarding his injury recovery and looks exactly like the player we saw before he his ACL tear. Yet, he is somehow going off the board as the RB27. Fun fact: Sean Payton has had a top-20 RB in fantasy football in 14 of his 15 seasons as a head coach. It’s simple, draft Javonte.

Wildcard:  Drake London put up a ridiculous 29% Target Share as a rookie last season. If you are willing to chase upside, no player offers more. The fade is situation-based, not due to the talent. If London were on a team with a good quarterback, he would have an ADP similar to Garrett Wilson. I get the concerns, but the talent will leave you drooling.

Round 7

Candidates: James Cook, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Deshaun Watson

It’s time to select my ride or die in James Cook; a player we have heard a drumbeat for all preseason. Add in the fact Buffalo is deploying him as a three-down back who can do it all. He is your seemingly last chance to get a running back who offers the potential to find his way into the RB1 range. Go and draft James Cook. He is a lock to beat his ADP this season.

Wildcard: Diontae Johnson. I have no clue why a wide receiver who has averaged 153 targets in the last three years is even available in the 7th round. The value is absurd, and he’s a player I am scooping up everywhere in drafts. 

Round 8

Candidates: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Tucker, Khalil Herbert, Aaron Rodgers

Why is a kicker going in round 8? I have some questions for those individuals. The pick is JSN here, as the injury has knocked his value down, so we are getting a nice discount on a player who should be a monster in fantasy football for the second half of the season. The Seahawk’s offense will be lights out, and JSN will be a big part of why.

Wildcard: Jordan Addison. What’s not to like? The Vikings upgraded their WR2 spot with the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner. He will get plenty of free looks playing alongside the best wide receiver in the NFL, with a quarterback capable of supporting multiple fantasy wide receivers. WR38 is a bargain.

Round 9

Odell Beckham, Jamaal Williams, Philadelphia DST, Michael Thomas

Drafting a defense in round 9 is nonsensical. The position is highly unpredictable from year to year, so do not go down that path. I am willing to give Michael Thomas one last chance, as MT had one of the best starts to a career we have ever seen. Thomas ranks 4th all-time in yards per game with 83.8 (minimum 500 receptions). With a quarterback upgrade and one of the easiest fantasy schedules, I again choose MT.

Wildcard: Antonio Gibson has that allure in round 9. Few players offer a wider range of outcomes than he does this season. I’m willing to invest at RB43 prices. It won’t hurt you if he doesn’t hit, but the risk is worth the reward.

Round 10

Candidates: Daniel Jones, New York Jets DST, Geno Smith, Quentin Johnston

If you need a quarterback, Geno Smith is a guy I’m riding once again. He was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in 2022, capable of throwing up monster numbers to possibly the best WR core in the league. I’m all in on Smith and the Seahawks offense in 2023. If not Smith, take a flier on Quentin Johnston, the rookie WR in LA. He could play an impact role and be a difference-maker as he progresses throughout the season in a Justin Herbert offense.

Wildcard: Zay Flowers is one of my favorite rookies, with the potential to be the WR1 in Baltimore this season. He can play all over the field and is a true YAC specialist with the ball in his hands.

 

The goal of fantasy football should be to win championships, and I believe this squad will accomplish that goal for you in 2023. Be bold, and go after those players who are true difference makers this season. With this early draft pick strategy, your team could become a League Winner.

 

To learn more about our rankings in dynasty and redraft, check us out at www.theleaguewinners.com.

Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.

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