Every year, a multitude of undrafted sleepers emerge as incredible assets within fantasy football leagues. While many consider predicting the initial waiver claims of the season a guessing game, I believe it to be more strategic then ever. In this analysis, we will examine players from various positions who are likely to outperform their low average draft positions (ADP). For each player, I’ll provide a brief nugget of information, along with their ADP across several platforms – including our esteemed partners Sleeper and Underdog. And here’s a little bonus: use the code FFLW when signing up, and they’ll match your initial deposit, up to $100!
My criteria for an “undrafted player” are players with an ADP surpassing 150 in any of the platforms used for this analysis. Draft pick 150 was determined due to the nature of standard roster construction. Excluding D/ST and kickers, lineups house seven starters and average five to seven bench spots. With a total of ~13 roster spots, the average ADP where players begin to go undrafted is pick 143 (between 10 and 12 team leagues).
QB Sam Howell – Washington Commanders
Sam Howell has recently seen high praise from Commanders’ Head Coach Ron Rivera. Rivera revealed in an interview with Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated he wished he would have known Sam Howell was better, sooner: “‘You can ask [my wife] Stephanie, all we f—ing talked about was the quarterback, what the quarterback did, who he was,” Rivera said. “I kept saying, ‘F—, if I would have known this, I would have played him sooner.'”
#Commanders coach Ron Rivera admitted that he wasn't aware of how good Sam Howell was throughout the 2022 season, or he would've started him sooner, via @AlbertBreer
Rivera recalled talking to his wife: "All we f—ing talked about was the quarterback, I kept saying, f–k, if I… pic.twitter.com/L9gP8Hmqrb
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 28, 2023
Howell is backed by a thrilling ensemble, highlighted by emerging second-year wide receiver Jahan Dotson. The combination of Dotson and experienced wideout Terry McLaurin promises an intriguing dual threat within Eric Bieniemy’s offensive scheme. Sam Howell is looking to take a second year jump, and the cost to get in on it is next to nothing. Here are his ADPs across the most popular platforms:
- Sleeper – 232
- Yahoo – 166.6
- Underdog – 166.6
- ESPN – 169.3
RB Sean Tucker – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sean Tucker was a consensus top-five running back prospect in this class, but fell down NFL boards due to a heart condition. After going undrafted, Tucker was signed to the depleted Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield. He passed his physical shortly after and started rising the depth chart during the preseason.
It’s no wonder Tucker was a top running back prospect, as he rushed for over 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns in back-to-back seasons at Syracuse. He made a mark in the college landscape, and should continue to prove his worth while battling Rachaad White for touches in the first team offense. Check out our very own Brandon Haye’s Sleeper Picks Write Up where he also covers why Sean Tucker is a steal late in drafts. Tucker is an excellent sleeper pick can be acquired post-draft on waivers. Or, you can snag him at the end near these ADPs:
- Sleeper – N/A
- Yahoo – N/A
- Underdog – 212.3
- ESPN – 170.1
WR Marvin Mims Jr – Denver Broncos
The polarizing Denver Broncos offense is heading into the 2023 season looking to turn around a league worst 16.9 points per game. It’s not off to a great start, with multiple injuries happening to the wide receiver room. Tim Patrick is done for the season with an Achilles tear and KJ Hamler was waived after being diagnosed with a heart condition. Jerry Jeudy is also out with a long term hamstring injury. This leaves veteran Courtland Sutton and 2nd round rookie pick Marvin Mims Jr to step up.
Mims was Sean Payton’s first draft choice as the Broncos’ head coach, and he even traded up for him. He’s an explosive downfield threat who succeeds similarly against man coverage, like draft-mates Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception details Mims similarly to former pros TY Hilton and John Brown, who were once locked into fantasy football lineups.
Marvin Mims is going to open the season as a starter for Denver after a rocky offseason for that position group. There's a chance if he develops, he ends it established as the best WR on the roster.
Some #ReceptionPerception positive Indicators on Mims…
– 72.2% success rate… pic.twitter.com/VEmb6BdZQB
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 28, 2023
As far as undrafted sleepers go, Mims is a becoming a favorite target of many. Here is where you can find Mims in your fantasy football drafts today:
- Sleeper – 184.6
- Yahoo – 129.8
- Underdog – 126.4
- ESPN – 170.2
TE Trey McBride – Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride is the former second round pick for the Arizona Cardinals. McBride has been the consensus backup tight end for this team, although that changed when teammate Zach Ertz injured his knee late in 2022. McBride immediately stepped into the starting role week 11 to catch four of four targets. Although the starter, McBride continued to see chump change until the Week 17 game against the Falcons. McBride emerged into the spotlight to see 10 targets on the day. He capitalized on his large market share, turning his piece of the pie into seven catches and a touchdown.
Giving Trey McBride an every-down role should be an absolute no-brainer for #Cardinals. Zach Ertz:
* Tore his ACL 10 months ago
* Is in age-33 season
* Has no real place on a rebuilding/tanking team
* Would only stunt Trey McBride's development for future seasons https://t.co/BW4eowCdZw— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 31, 2023
With Ertz unsure if he will be ready to start the season, McBride is one of the few undrafted sleepers who could return league-winning potential. He’s as close to undrafted as you can get on this list, with two platforms not even populating his ADP field. You can grab him at your own leisure, but take your time on this one. This is where you’ll find him:
- Sleeper – N/A
- Yahoo – N/A
- Underdog – 214.6
- ESPN – 170.2
