The 2021 draft class was loaded with quarterbacks, with the first three picks being Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance. Additionally, Justin Fields went at No. 11 and Mac Jones at No. 15. With so many talented quarterbacks being selected early in the draft, it is our job as fantasy football managers to navigate through the weeds to determine which one will be the best option. Luckily for you, I have the answer.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Although maybe a bit obvious, I think the clear answer is Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback and number one overall pick, Trevor Lawrence. Although recent reports suggest otherwise, Lawrence is the clear-cut starter for the Jaguars in Week 1.
The only other rookie quarterback we can confidently say the same for is New York Jets rookie, Zach Wilson. It is still unknown whether or not Lance, Fields, and Jones will be the Week 1 starter for their respective teams. This alone sways my interest in Lawrence from the start. I want to draft a quarterback who I know will be out there putting up fantasy football points.
So why Lawrence over Wilson? Easy. Not only is Lawrence the better talent, but he is surrounded by a superior supporting cast. Catching the ball from him is veteran wide receiver Marvin Jones, breakout candidate Laviska Shenault, and another solid option in DJ Chark. In addition to these pass catchers, the Jaguars have 2020’s fantasy football darling James Robinson and newly drafted rookie Travis Etienne. The combination of these two backs will greatly take some of the pressure off Lawrence and this Jacksonville passing game.
Vegas Knows
Lawrence being a better player, coupled with being in a better situation than Wilson, is backed by some of the prop lines set by DraftKings Sportsbook. The line for passing touchdowns for Lawrence and Wilson is 25.5 and 21.5, respectively. Both are at -115. The line for passing yards for these two quarterbacks is 4,050.5 for Lawrence and 3,800.5 for Wilson. Again, both are set at -115. While these lines are not the end all be all, they are a pretty good indicator of what is expected from the two.
QB1 Upside
According to Fantasy Pros Consensus Rankings, Lawrence is the 14th ranked quarterback. He is going behind guys like Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford. Realistically, I could see him outperforming Burrow. Coming back from a torn ACL, Burrow may play it safe and try to get the ball out quickly. In addition, Lawrence has the ability to run with the ball. This could provide additional fantasy football points to potentially outscore Stafford, who has not had a rushing touchdown since 2016.
Typically being drafted around the 12th round as a QB2, I would be more than comfortable waiting to take him there as my main quarterback. Being able to wait on a quarterback while loading up on stud positional players is key. You will get the advantage of rostering superior wide receivers and running backs, while still having a solid quarterback who I can see finishing in the top-12.
While all five of these first-round quarterbacks had college success, none were as consistent and dominate all three years like Lawrence. Consistently putting up over 3,100 yards per season and totaling 90 passing touchdowns at Clemson, Lawrence is the greater talent. His ability to rush is backed by his 943 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. The known day one starter, surrounded by offensive weapons, Lawrence is the quarterback to target this year in fantasy football.
