The NFL Draft has come and gone. With that, we begin to transition from dynasty rookie draft season to fantasy football redraft season.
After months of researching and drafting only rookies, it can be a struggle to see the bigger picture and decide where the rookie class fits into the redraft ADP. To help with this, I have done some research to look back and see what rounds and positions produced the most top 12 finishes as rookies for fantasy football.
We will be taking a look at the 2023 Fantasy Pros 1QB ADP (The Risk) and comparing it to the hit rate for that position and draft capital (The Reward).
The Top 12 Candidates
This will consist of nine groups of various positions and draft capital.
These will be the most expensive rookies, but also this group is realistically the only ones capable of producing high-end fantasy football numbers in their rookie season.
These nine groups are the only ones who have produced a top-12 finish in the past ten seasons.
1. 1st Round Running Backs
Risk: Bijan Robinson ATL (ADP- 10th overall), Jahmyr Gibbs DET (ADP- 43rd overall)
Reward: 41.7% hit rate
Robinson and Gibbs are the only two players that fit into our first group. Both secured early first-round NFL Draft capital. That gives them the highest likelihood of a top 12 finish by a significant margin.
Bijan will require a late first-round pick to chase the hit rate, but Gibbs gives you a similar upside at a three-round discount.
Best Option: Jahmyr Gibbs. Simply put, the discount on Gibbs makes him a better value than Bijan even though his upside is not as high. If Gibbs is still available in the 4th round of your draft, scoop him up.
2. 1st Round Tight Ends
Risk: Dalton Kincaid BUF (ADP- 141 overall)
Reward: 22.2% hit rate
Dalton Kincaid is the only player to fit into this category. He was the only tight end that crept into the first round.
Believe it or not, first-round tight ends are the second most likely group of rookies to provide a top-12 season. This could be in large part to the fact that the threshold for a top 12 tight end season is a fairly low bar to pass.
Kincaid goes to a high-flying Buffalo offense and should be used exclusively as a move tight end, while Knox will serve as the blocking tight end.
Best Option: Dalton Kincaid is a potentially valuable draft pick in the 2023 redraft leagues.
He is going off the board as the 16th tight end. Kincaid could be a great value even if he only manages a top 12 finish and no better.
While I don’t suggest relying on him solely, I would advocate drafting him in the middle rounds and drafting a veteran tight end late as insurance.
Kincaid is a great target in the 11th round of redraft league drafts.
3. 3rd Round Running Backs
Risk: Kendre Miller NO (ADP- 145 overall), Tyjae Spears TEN (ADP- 163 overall), Devon Achane MIA (ADP- 112 overall), Tank Bigsby JAC (ADP- 165 overall)
Reward: 12.5% hit rate
There are plenty of options in this group. Realistically, three of the four should be considered for your 2023 seasonal leagues.
Spears has some serious injury concerns and is stuck behind Derrick Henry. Barring a Henry injury, we will disregard him and consider him nothing more than a handcuff this season.
Bigsby does not project to be the bell cow back in Jacksonville. Instead, he will likely be used as a complementary piece, making him little more than a backup option and not one that can be relied on.
The two most interesting options by far are Miller and Achane. Achane is going 30 picks earlier due to a juicy Miami landing spot, but he also has to compete with Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert for touches. His 2023 projections are a total wildcard.
Miller comes into New Orleans as the third option on the depth chart. Veterans Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams are both projected to start over him.
Kamara will likely face a significant suspension and Williams is more of a plodder who vultures touchdowns.
Best Option: Miller is the player to target in this group. He is significantly cheaper than Achane and realistically has the same chances of starting as a rookie.
Take the 30-pick discount and hope things break right for him. A solid dart throw option in the 12th round of redraft leagues.
4. 2nd Round Running Backs
Risk: Zach Charbonnet SEA (ADP- 105 overall)
Reward: 11.1% hit rate
You may have noticed that second-round running backs rank lower on the hit rate list than third-round running backs. There’s a reason for that.
Typically, round three running backs find their way to better landing spots than the round two backs. That’s the case here.
The only round-two running back in the 2023 NFL Draft is Seattle’s Zach Charbonnet, and this landing spot is terrible for him.
Charbonnet is likely to be used as a backup to Walker as he is by far the most inferior of the two. He is not likely to add to the hit rate for this group, as his chances of being a top-12 running back this season are negligible.
Best Option: With Charbonnet going in the 8th round of redraft league drafts, the best option is to fade him completely.
Unless Ken Walker goes down to injury or we have reason to believe that he has taken over as the starter his chances of being fantasy relevant aren’t great.
Even if he wins the starting job he is likely to share regardless.
5. 1st Round Quarterback
Risk: Bryce Young CAR (ADP- 151 overall), CJ Stroud HOU (ADP- 161), Anthony Richardson IND (ADP- 129 overall)
Reward: 10.0% hit rate
We have a trio of top-five picks in this category. Honestly, I was surprised this group didn’t rank higher.
Despite being selected in the first round, the hit rate is still 1 in 10 for these quarterbacks. Although when you narrow the perimeters from the first round to top ten picks, the success rate is more like 50/50.
Young and Stroud are the safest of the options and are going cheaper than Richardson despite being drafted above him. This is likely because Richardson’s rushing ability gives him a much higher ceiling.
Richardson has arguably the best landing spot of the three and easily the best-supporting cast. It’s easy to see why he is the first draft of the three.
Best Option: This is a dual answer. In 1QB leagues where backups are readily available on the waiver wire, you simply swing for the fences and draft Richardson in the 10th round.
If he hits you consider it found money. If he misses, then you drop him for a waiver wire replacement.
The answer for superflex is a bit more complicated. There are fewer options on the waiver wire in superflex; therefore, you can’t simply shoot for the upside.
In superflex leagues, I would draft whoever you prefer out of Young and Stroud (I prefer Young) in the 12th round and not risk a potentially massive bust in Richardson.
6. 1st Round Wide Receivers
Risk: Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA (ADP- 88 overall), Quentin Johnston LAC (ADP- 120 overall), Zay Flowers BAL (ADP- 123 overall), Jordan Addison MIN (ADP- 98 overall)
Reward: 7.1% hit rate
As we’ve seen in the past, there is no guarantee with first-round receivers. First-round receivers are just as likely to be a bust as they are to be a stud.
The odds of them being a top 12 receiver for your fantasy football team are even slimmer. Roughly 1 out of every 13 receivers produces as a WR1 in their rookie season.
In 2023 we have four options to choose from. Smith-Njigba is easily the most talented of the four but landed in arguably the worst landing spot. He along with Quentin Johnston both landed on teams with two talented veteran receivers above them on the depth chart.
The two receivers with a chance to move up the depth chart are Flowers and Addison, although Addison’s landing spot is by far the most preferable of the group.
Best Option: Addison is easily the best option. While he isn’t the most talented of the bunch, he is still plenty capable of producing. He projects to have the largest role of the four as a rookie.
He should form a solid 1-2 punch with Justin Jefferson and is a great pick in the 8th round.
7. 4th Round Quarterback
Risk: Jake Haener NO (ADP- Undrafted), Stetson Bennett LAR (ADP- Undrafted), Aidan O’Connell LV (ADP- Undrafted)
Reward: 5.6% hit rate
Welcome to the land of Hail Marys. This group appears on the list solely because of Dak Prescott. No other quarterback outside of the first-round picks has been a QB1 as a rookie in fantasy football.
Haener, Bennett and O’Connell are all going to be backup quarterbacks going into the 2023 season. As such, none of them should be on the radar in fantasy football redraft leagues.
Barring a catastrophic injury to the starter, none of these three are going to be fantasy relevant.
Best Option: There are no good options here. If you are in the deepest of leagues and need to choose one, Bennett is probably the best option; as Matthew Stafford is always battling injury.
Avoid all of them outside of the deepest leagues.
8. 5th Round Running Backs
Risk: Israel Abanikanda NYJ (ADP- 186 overall), Chase Brown CIN (ADP- 172 overall), Eric Gray NYG (ADP- 269 overall), Evan Hull IND (ADP- 300 overall)
Reward: 2.9% hit rate
For a group of players that are incapable of finishing inside the top 12 as rookies, the love for late-round rookie running backs in fantasy football has gotten out of control.
Despite having one top 12 finish over the last ten years, the round-five running backs are all being drafted.
Abanikanda seemed to have the most talent before a disastrous landing spot killed his stock. Chase Brown seemed to have the profile to be a third-down back, but he quickly lost upside with a terrible showing at the Senior Bowl.
Gray and Hull are both going at the end of drafts and are nothing more than injury handcuffs for Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor.
Best Option: Day-three running backs such as Isaih Pacheco, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier have made late-round running backs the common trend, but they just aren’t a worthwhile bet to make.
The odds of any of these players carrying your team are so slim it’s scary.
Abanikanda is likely the best option of the four. He is not only the most talented, but if Breece Hall is not healthy to start the season, he could be thrust into an impromptu starters role.
He should be available in the last round of redraft leagues should you feel the need to throw a dart at him.
9. 2nd Round Wide Receivers
Risk: Jonathan Mingo CAR (ADP- 179 overall), Jayden Reed GB (ADP- 240 overall), Rashee Rice KC (ADP- 166 overall), Marvin Mims DEN (ADP- 215 overall)
Reward: 2.0% hit rate
This might be my favorite group of late-round dart throws. While the hit rate for top 12 finishes is insanely low for rookie receivers drafted outside of the first round, there have still been many productive ones.
Mingo and Rice are the most expensive by a large margin. Of those two, I vastly prefer Mingo based on the potential opportunity to be the WR1 in Carolina.
Mims and Reed are much cheaper. Both have some heavy target competition, although the competition that Reed faces is far less accomplished.
All four receivers have solid size and speed. All are talented enough to produce. It will simply be a matter of who gets the opportunity to play and takes advantage of it.
Best Option: If you’re looking for a potential home run swing then Mingo is your guy. He could easily beat out DJ Chark and Adam Thielen for the WR1 job.
He is the only one of these four with the scenario to be a potential WR1 as a rookie. Mingo is a solid 14th-round home run swing.
If a solid base hit is what you need, Jayden Reed is cheaper and much more likely to be the WR2 on his team. Reed can be had in the final round of fantasy football drafts and is worth a flier.
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