Since the 2018 season the Baltimore Ravens have led the league in rushing attempts and given fantasy football managers plenty to be excited about. With Lamar Jackson and company, they’ve led the league in all but one season. That season was last year, and it was due to losing their two primary running backs prior to their first game.
Entering training camp it looked like J.K. Dobbins would be in line for a big workload. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn ACL in a preseason practice. This opened the door for backup Gus Edwards to step up into that lead back role. This was short lived though. Just a couple days before the Ravens first game Edwards tore his ACL in practice.
This offseason the Ravens were in on several free agent RBs leading to speculation that Dobbins and Edwards could be behind in their recovery schedule. But ultimately, the Ravens did not invest much at the position. With the recovery timeline still unknown this backfield has the potential to be a great value in fantasy football.
J.K Dobbins (RB21, Overall 41)
As a three year starter for The Ohio State Buckeyes, J.K. Dobbins never disappointed. As a true freshman, Dobbins rushed for 1403 yards, and 7 touchdowns; with an additional 135 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. In his next two seasons Dobbins rushed for over 3000 yards and 31 touchdowns, with an additional 503 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns.
His college performance led the Ravens to draft 55th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. But with that draft capital he still had to earn touches. It took until Week 8 for him to have double digit rushing attempts; where he had 15 for 113 yards. He followed that up with a couple down games, but only fell below double digit carries one more time. He ended the season with six straight games with touchdowns. Even with a late start to the season, Dobbins rushed for 805 yards and 9 touchdowns.
Efficiency
Not only has Dobbins shown flashes of productivity, but he has also been one of the most efficient RBs in the league. Dobbins averaged 6.1 yards per touch, which ranked 3rd according to PlayerProfiler. But I prefer to look at the True Yards per Carry Metric which takes away the breakaway plays. Dobbins averaged 5.4 yards per carry according to that metric which was good for 1st in the league.
Injury Concerns
We did not get to see Dobbins in 2021 due to his ACL tear during preseason. With over 12 months of recovery time, there are reasons to be optimistic about him being ready for Week 1. But that is still not a guarantee and fantasy football managers need to be ready for the possibility he gets placed on the PUP and misses at least the first four weeks.
Dobbins update pic.twitter.com/oruZb1miqR
— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) June 21, 2022
If this is to happen, Dobbin’s ADP will drop several rounds and he will offer even more value to fantasy football managers. Obviously we are hoping for Dobbins to be ready by Week 1, so we get a full season of why we should be high productivity.
Gus Edwards (RB55, Overall 183)
In his first three seasons on the Ravens, Edwards was never given the opportunity to be a workhorse back. With a healthy J.K. Dobbins, Edwards again, will be stuck in a timeshare.
But on one of the most run heavy offenses in the league that really is not that bad. In his first three seasons Edwards averaged 138 carries for 717 yards. Unfortunately he only has 10 touchdowns over that span.
Like Dobbins, Edwards has been an incredibly efficient runner while on the field. He has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry each season. Even more impressive is the fact that at least half of Edwards yardage has come after first contact.
Highest percentage of carries with at least 2 yards after contact in 2020 (PFF, min. 100 carries)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 7, 2021
1. Chris Carson (77%) 👀
2. Gus Edwards (75%) 👀
3. Austin Ekeler (74%) 👀
Haven't pulled out the triple eyeball combo since 'nam. Great day to be great.
Edwards is currently going extremely late and sometimes undrafted in fantasy football startups. If you draft early before training camp and took Dobbins, I am using my last pick on Edwards no matter what. If you didn’t draft Dobbins, Edwards is an even better pick there. And if Dobbins has a setback, Edwards could be cleared he will be the lead back for the start of the season – and you didn’t have to lose a starter to get there.
Conclusions
The Ravens did bring in some competition through free agency and the draft. This felt like more of an insurance move in the instance either of these guys could not get back to full strength quick enough. With over a year of recovery time before the start of the season, both Dobbins and Edwards should be ready to start the season. They both should get plenty of work and have proven not only production, but efficiency in different parts of the game.
I am expecting this lead back role to go back to Dobbins as soon as he is ready to go. He will definitely be sharing the load with Gus Edwards and even more importantly, Lamar Jackson. But he has done that before and performed well in just a limited time.
I am happy to draft Dobbins and Edwards at their current ADPs. I think both could be in line for a workload that allows them to outproduce the players being drafted around them.
