I typically do not recommend drafting two RBs from the same team in fantasy football redraft format. But there are a couple exceptions this season. One of those teams having that exception is the Dallas Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard both have ADPs that make them very tempting targets in fantasy drafts.
The Dallas Cowboys currently have a 10.5 Win line according to Vegas (down from 12 in 2021). Sure they lost big names on both sides of the ball with Amari Cooper heading to Cleveland and Randy Gregory to Denver. But the team still has a pretty solid core of good players on both sides. That is why they are still they are still the 8th highest favorite to win the Super Bowl according to Vegas lines. They have a solid team in a conference that only got easier this season with a lot of big losses in free agency.
If the Cowboys are going to be as successful as Vegas thinks. They are going to have to score a lot of points. And I would be looking at Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to be major contributors this year.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB17, Overall 32)
Ezekiel Elliott may be one of the most underrated running backs in fantasy football this season. With a late 3rd draft pick you can get a player who has only missed the 1000 rushing yard mark twice in his first six seasons. He missed by less than 25 yards in each of those seasons. The first time he missed, he only played in 10 games and rushed for 983 yards, with an additional 269 through the air. The next time was in 2020 when he rushed for 979 yards with an additional 338 through the air.
Most Rushing Yards Since 2017:
1. Derrick Henry (6,307)
2. Ezekiel Elliott (5,755)
3. Dalvin Cook (4,820)
4. Nick Chubb (4,816)
5. Joe Mixon (4,565)The King still reigns 👑 pic.twitter.com/lrXT4znF6O
— NFL On Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) June 8, 2022
Elliott has been one of the most productive rushers since he joined the league in 2016. But lately he has not been very efficient. According to PlayerProfiler, Elliott ranked 39th in true yards per carry in 2021, with just 4.1 yards per carry. This stat does not take breakaway plays into account, which skews yards per carry upward.
He may not be the most efficient RB in the league, but he has a knack for finding the endzone. Throughout his career he has been in the top-10 in red zone rushing attempts in every season except for his rookie season. Zeke is getting the majority of the high value RB touches for the Cowboys and that is a big part of what we should be looking for.
Aside from his rushing success, Elliott has really turned into a decent receiving option for the Cowboys. Last season with Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard to compete with, Elliott commanded a 10% target share. This is not close to the highest among all RBs in the league. But in each of the last three seasons his target rate on the Cowboys has increased. I do think that this trend changes this season. Especially as the Cowboy’s start to utilize Tony Pollard more in the slot in 2021.
Tony Pollard (RB34, Overall 92)
Unlike Ezekiel Elliott, fantasy football managers do not need to invest a high pick to draft Pollard. Currently, Pollard is being drafted in the middle of the 8th round in Half-PPR leagues. This feels too low and should jump up as more leagues start to draft in July and August. But even with a small jump Pollard is likely to be a value.
When Pollard has been on the field he has always looked good, and the Cowboys coaching staff is noticing. Pollard has seen increases in rushing attempts, targets, and yards in each season. In addition to productivity he has been one of the most efficient running backs in the league. According to PlayerProfiler, Pollard ranked 5th in True Yards per Carry in 2021, with 5.1 yards per carry. As a rookie, Pollard finished 4th in the league in this metric.
Not only is Pollard efficient, but he has real breakaway play ability. In 2021, 8.5% of Pollards rushes were for over 15 yards which ranked 3rd in the league. However, he only scored a touchdown on one of those breakaway plays. If he can turn a couple more breakaway plays into touchdowns in 2022 fantasy managers are going to be rewarded.
Here is every explosive play by #Cowboys RB Tony Pollard during the 2021 season: pic.twitter.com/hvoBYS6kCr
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) May 26, 2022
Pollard has been just as good as a pass catcher. Last season he led the league in yards per route run at the RB position with 2.5 yards per route run. This number may be slightly skewed, because he only commanded 8.1% of the targets in Dallas. But this offseason, the Cowboys have already said that they plan to use Pollard more in the slot. With additional targets Pollard will carry standalone value and will become one of the most valuable RBs in the middle of your fantasy drafts.
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard exploring receiver role at OTAs: "I’m open to anything just being on the field"https://t.co/pea7TsjNkD pic.twitter.com/IZtLSfHVeh
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) June 12, 2022
Consensus
At their current ADP’s both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard should be targets in your fantasy football drafts. As Pollard continues to develop, Zeke will definitely be asked to share more of the workload. But he is unlikely to give up much of his redzone work to Pollard, and that is really where Zeke earns his greatest fantasy value. With a few more rushing attempts and more usage out of the slot, Pollard should continue to gain value as a fantasy RB. I do think that Zeke and Pollard could rise in ADP slightly, but I would be happy to use any 3rd round pick on Zeke and my 7th or 8th round pick on Pollard. And honestly I am gonna be very happy if I can get two of the best weapons on one of the highest projected teams for the 2022 NFL season.
