Story Time
‘Twas the day of one of many drafts for myself this off-season. More specifically, I was in a fantasy football dynasty startup and traded up to select Cam Akers in the second round. I am a huge believer in his talent, as is his coaching staff.
Fast forward to the next day (yes it is a slow draft), and my 9th-round pick is creeping up. With only one person ahead of me in the draft, I sit in my office at a work meeting patiently waiting for my turn to go. I have so many options to choose from. My go-to would have been Damien Harris. I love the opportunity he has this year and his goal line work skyrockets when Mac Jones inevitably takes over as the starting QB.
I work in sales, so obviously this is a sales meeting with my team and my superiors. It’s 10:25 PM and my group chat starts lighting up alongside my twitter feed. I decide to see what the commotion is about only for my jaw to drop in front of my clueless colleagues.
The room is filled with a bunch of sports fans so I do not mind sharing the terrible news of Cam Akers being out for the season and I am met with a bunch of sighs of despair. My pick finally gets to me and Darrell Henderson is still on the board. I guess the guy with the 9.05 in my fantasy football draft wasn’t paying attention to the news. I scoop Henderson up with my pick to secure the Ram’s RB room.
Outlook
With Akers out, Darrell Henderson looks to capitalize on his newfound opportunity. At 23 years old, Henderson looks to solidify himself into the NFL world with a full season at his fingertips. Adam Schefter tweeted that the Rams are not looking to sign any free agent running backs because they believe in the running back room.
Rams don't have any immediate plans to pursue a free-agent running back. They believe in Darrell Henderson, like last year's undrafted free agent RB Xavier Jones and also drafted RB Jake Funk in the seventh round this year. For now, they're standing pat, but could revisit later. https://t.co/kkIVXrySFq
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 20, 2021
Henderson is the clear-cut starter, and the guy you want to own in fantasy football. Guys like Xavier Jones and Jake Funk are there to back him up. I believe the Rams will eventually sign or trade for someone to backup Henderson, but Henderson has just been handed the keys to the car when it comes to the bulk of rushes this year.
Before getting into what I project Henderson to do this season, I have a few predictions as to who the Rams may bring in prior to the start of the regular season, and how each individual would affect Henderson’s value.
Free Agent Acquisitions
Adrian Peterson is a free agent at the top of this list for a multitude of reasons. Peterson may not have the same athletic ability he once carried, but his leadership skills and awareness could lead to a great one-two punch with Henderson.
I would still expect Henderson to handle most of the carries; but with potential injury concerns, Peterson could be the perfect spell-back when Henderson needs a breather. Also, the Rams are in win now mode. Meaning they are competing for a championship and AP wants every part of that.
The next player has been a backup for the majority of his career, but is still young and has some juice left in him. This player is Ito Smith. Smith was a serviceable tailback when Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were both dealing with injuries in Atlanta.
Smith averages 3.9 yards per carry for his career, so having him spell Henderson could help keep drives alive and allow the latter to finish it off near the goal line. I don’t see Henderson taking much of a hit if Smith signs with the Rams because I believe he will only get 4-8 carries a game compared to 15-20 for Henderson.
Last of the free agents that would fit well with the Rams is LeSean ‘Shady” McCoy. After being almost non-existent last year with Tampa Bay, Shady is looking for a team to possibly win a third straight Super Bowl with. Coming to the Rams, McCoy could be used in a similar role to his Kansas City days in 2019; being able to take 6-10 carries a game with the potential of game-changing plays due to his awareness. It could really lift up this backfield after a brutal injury to the depth chart. I do not see Shady making a huge impact on Henderson’s outcome, but I will say that McCoy still has the ability to make a big play once in a while.
Trade Targets
A couple trade targets to look out for if the Rams get desperate after seeing Henderson work through camp:
James Robinson – The Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The Jags could possibly look to unload Robinson to another team in need. Adding Robinson would disrupt the Rams RB room and could be an even split in carries between him and Henderson; or whoever has the hot hand takes the game away.
Phillip Lindsay – The Texans signed Lindsay to a one-year deal, and have a plethora of running backs. They are in a rebuild, so they could look to add a pick to next year’s draft with a trade. Adding Lindsay would not make as much of an impact as Robinson, but could take the ball away from Henderson on certain drives or games.
Marlon Mack – The Colts re-signed Mack to a one-year deal. He is coming off of the same injury Cam Akers just sustained. Mack was a 1,000 yard rusher in 2019, but has obviously lost a step due to injury. Would see him more as a spell-back with the opportunity to take upwards of 12 carries a game if needed.
Hindsight is 2020
Darrell Henderson averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year. He played in less than 50% of snaps in 13 out of 15 games he played. At some point, every Ram’s running back got hurt. When Henderson was ‘the guy’ in the first half of the season, he had over 10 carries in five out of eight games (he played only 6% of snaps Week 1).
While still having under 50% of snaps played, Henderson was still a good fantasy football option for three weeks early in your season. Henderson was then hit with a slew of injuries in the second half of the season, derailing any potential for that year.
If you take out Week 1 and Week 8 due to injuries, Henderson had a 46% snap percentage in the first half of the seasonand – and still put up big numbers in half those weeks. Two of those weeks included a 19 point game against Buffalo and a 21.8 point game against WFT.
With the limited work, Darrell Henderson was still a play-maker on the field while contributing to the passing attack as well. Extrapolate the stats from Weeks 2-7, to a 17-game pace (averaging his 46% snap share) and you get: 238 rushes, 1,147 yards and eight touchdowns with 36 receptions for 368 yards, and three touchdowns.
Projections
With an expected increase in his workload, Henderson is looking to take over this backfield and be the bell-cow Akers was meant to be. After the first three weeks of the 2021 season, the Rams schedule gives optimism to myself and many others.
You could almost expect Henderson to take up to two-thirds of the running back work if the Rams do not bring anyone in. If they do bring someone in, I still project him to take about half of the rushing share on this team.
After getting some stock of Henderson myself I am really optimistic about his 2021 output. Dealing with the Cam Akers injury is a huge blow, but at least it happened before most of your drafts have begun. Look for Henderson in the fourth round of your drafts to be a top-20 running back in fantasy football this year.
Darrell Henderson 2021 season projections: 244 rushes, 1,074 yards and 7 TDs with 42 receptions for 411 yards and three TDs.
