As the NFL regular season ends and we look back to see what we got wrong and right, it becomes painfully obvious that the hardest players to project for fantasy football were the rookies. More specifically the Day 3 rookies. Even more specifically, the Day 3 rookie running backs.
There were so many variables to factor in. The Day 1 and 2 running backs have better draft capital and are therefore guaranteed more of a role on their team. But for the Day 3 running backs it’s the Wild West out there. The Day 3 running backs seen a little bit of everything: some hits, some misses, and some who never took the field.
The two latter categories who were misses or never saw the field are easy to deal with moving into the fantasy football offseason – drop them. If they were Day 3 picks and they did nothing in their rookie year, they can be safely left on waivers and added in the unlikely event they even do anything of value. But what do we do with the Day 3 running backs that have gained value?
The list of Day 3 running backs that still have notable value at the end of the 2022 season is a short one. According to PlayerProfiler there are 15 Day 3 running backs who are still ranked inside the top 75 at the position. Here is a look at that list with their rank and current lifetime value as well as their draft capital.
Diamonds in the Rough?
That’s a pretty short list. The remaining Day 3 running backs hold little to no fantasy football value. As such, they should be left comfortably on the waiver wire. They are nothing more than roster cloggers.
Determining what to do with the 15 running backs above is the interesting part. Through their rookie year all of them have gained value and can now return various levels of return on investment.
The Dirty Dozen
I group the above list into two parts. The “Dirty Dozen”, which consists of the bottom 12 running backs. These guys were all likely waiver wire adds for your fantasy football team. While they have some value, they are likely more valuable to you as depth than they are as trade pieces. For that reason, I am holding onto those 12 players unless someone is really willing to over pay for them.
The Three Stars
The top three of Pierce, Pacheco and Allgeier are a much trickier case than the remaining dozen. All three at times have looked like potential breakout stars for their team. All three have looked to take over their backfield and all three have shot into the top 36 in running back rankings.
This is going to sound contrarian and even a bit crazy, but for that exact reason… I am looking to sell high on all three.
Most fantasy football managers are going to read that and assume I am crazy. Why would I find gold and look to sell instead of holding onto it and building around it? The answer for me is simple: these three players simply faced insanely long odds of being relevant as Day 3 picks. The odds of them repeating that performance is so miniscule I would rather cash out now and collect my profit.
I was curious as to what the likelihood is of any Day 3 running backs being useful, and what the chances were that they could repeat that useful performance. My study below will outline the data I collected and analyzed that led me to my ultimate conclusion to sell Pierce, Pacheco and Allgeier now before the floor falls out. Don’t believe me….. say hello to Elijah Mitchell and James Robinson.
The Day 3 RB Study
Since 2010 there have been 182 running backs taken on Day 3 of the NFL Draft – all 182 of those were included in this study. Furthermore, I included 28 running backs that were undrafted free agents (UDFA’s) that registered at least one relevant season as an NFL running back. Obviously I could not include every undrafted running back as there would be thousands that provided no useful statistics.
Between the 182 Day3 running backs and the 28 undrafted running backs I analyzed a total of 210 running backs that accumulated stats over a total of 760 NFL seasons. Let’s take a look at those players and seasons.
The RB1 Seasons
* A RB1 season is where the player finished between RB1 and RB12, which in 2022 was a Pts/Game of between 16 and 21 pts. *
Of the 760 season included, only 24 of them finished as RB1 in Full PPR scoring.
24 Top 12 finishes out of 760 seasons. That means if you drafted a Day 3 running back you had a 3.15% chance of them registering a single top 12 finish at some point in their career.
Only four of those Day 3 running backs ever accomplished the feat more than once. Lamar Miller and Devonta Freeman were top 12 running backs twice; while Austin Ekeler has accomplished the feat three times with Aaron Jones managing 4 top 12 seasons.
Here’s a breakdown of the RB1 Seasons by Day 3 running backs with round drafted included:
The RB2 Seasons
* A RB2 season is where the player finished between RB13 and RB24, which in 2022 was a Pts/Game of between 11 and 15 pts. *
Of the 760 season included, only 27 of them finished as RB2 in Full PPR scoring in fantasy football.
27 Top 24 finishes out of 760 seasons. That means if you drafted a Day 3 running back you had a 3.55% chance of them registering a finish between RB13 and RB24 at some point in their career.
Only six of those Day 3 running backs ever accomplished the feat more than once. Lamar Miller, Jordan Howard, Alfred Morris, Chris Carson and Marlon Mack all did so in two separate seasons; while Austin Ekeler managed to do so in three seasons.
Here’s a breakdown of the RB2 Seasons by Day 3 running backs with round drafted included:
The RB3 Seasons
* A RB3 season is where the player finished between RB25 and RB36, which in 2022 was a Pts/Game of between 7 and 11 pts. *
Of the 760 season included, only 47 of them finished as RB3 in Full PPR scoring.
47 Top 36 finishes out of 760 seasons. That means if you drafted a Day 3 running back you had a 6.18% chance of them registering a finish between RB24 and RB36 at some point in their career.
Only 13 of those Day 3 running backs ever accomplished the feat more than once. Bilal Powell, Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Devontae Booker, Tarik Cohen, Jamaal Williams, Chase Edmonds, Chris Thompson, Theo Riddick, Myles Gaskin, Raheem Mostert, Austin Ekeler and Jeff Wilson.
Here’s a breakdown of the RB3 Seasons by Day 3 running backs with round drafted included:
Study Conclusion
In my study, I learned that if I drafted a Day 3 running back, I had a 16.67% chance they would have a single RB1 season, a 22.22% chance they would have a single RB2 season and a 27.66% chance they would have a single RB3 season.
That’s what the upside is!
You had roughly a 1 in 4 chance that your Day 3 running back would ever be useful for your fantasy football team. If you managed to end up with Pierce, Pacheco or Allgeier – who are now valued as RB19, RB30 and RB34, respectively – sell them now; because Pierce finished as RB28 this season while Pacheco was RB37 and Allgeier was RB29.
All three finished as either RB2’s or RB3’s, and all three should be considered long shots to repeat that finish. It’s not impossible, but the return you could get for them now greatly outweighs the prospects of them being the next Austin Ekeler.
What Can You Get for Them?
Now that I’ve outlined the long odds these players face in repeating their 2022 performance and explained why I’m looking to sell them, I’m going to do a quick look at what players and 2023 rookie picks are in a similar value range as they are according to PlayerProfiler.
Dameon Pierce
- Player Valued one spot above of him: Miles Sanders
- Player Valued one spot below him: Alvin Kamara
- Equivalent 2023 Rookie Pick: Pick 1.03
This is an easy one for me. If I can trade Pierce for Sanders or Kamara I do it in a heartbeat, even with Kamara’s age. Forget the 1.03, I would love that…. But I would take any first-round rookie pick without blinking.
Isiah Pacheco
- Player Valued one spot above of him: Ezekiel Elliott
- Player Valued one spot below him: Antonio Gibson
- Equivalent 2023 Rookie Pick: Pick 2.02
Another easy one. Give me Zeke and Gibson 100% of the time, even with Elliott’s age. The rookie pick I would also take. I would be willing to take any second round rookie pick for Pacheco.
Tyler Allgeier
- Player Valued one spot above of him: Brian Robinson
- Player Valued one spot below him: D’Onta Foreman
- Equivalent 2023 Rookie Pick: Pick 2.10
This one is the toughest for me. Allgeier was on a number of my fantasy football championship squads and I have a soft spot for him. Having said that, I would take Brian Robinson over him pretty easily. D’Onta Foreman I’m not so high on and would probably prefer to keep Allgeier. The rookie pick I think I would also pass on and would just hope Allgeier is the next Ekeler. But again, that may be personal bias towards him.
