I don’t sleep during the NFL season. As a transplanted New Yorker now living in Amsterdam, sleep has become foreign to me; restless in a foreign country where American football is largely a foreign concept. Throughout the offseason (often in the wee hours of the European evening), I’ve been pouring over data and narratives, editing articles and writing a fair amount of my own. And, of course, I’ve been taking part in far too many fantasy football drafts. When the West Coast is just getting in from a hard day at work, I’ve been consuming content during a hard day’s night of fantasy football preparation.
I’ve been workin’ like a dog when I should have been sleepin’ like a log this summer, so it’s only fitting that I’ll be writing about fantasy sleepers this fall.
Each week, I’ll provide you with the names of one player at each position that is set to crush expectations over the weekend. And I’ll try to insert some analysis along the way. But first, a few ground rules:
- I’m defining a sleeper as someone ranked outside of the QB15, RB30, WR40 and TE10 for a given week based on the weekly Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100. These are the players we have questions about, and they’re likely the ones stashed on your bench or even still available on the waiver wire.
- In order for a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish within the top-60 players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup, and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- Along the way, I’ll keep track of my hit rate and refine my process so that I’m accountable to my losses and work to maximize my wins to help you maximize yours.
So, now that we’ve got business out of the way, let’s dive in.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 1
QB: Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB19
If liking Sam Darnold against his former club in a Week 1 showdown at home is wrong, I don’t wanna be right. Sure, Darnold’s seen more ghosts than that kid from The Sixth Sense, but he should be fully recuperated now that he’s escaped former head coach Adam Gase. Even though his offensive line is guaranteed to be just as terrible as the Jet unit from a year ago, Matt Rhule and Joe Brady are sure to put him in a better position to succeed.
That better position is on full display against a scheme-dependant and talent-depleted Jets defense, who is likely to be more phantom than fierce in 2021, despite Salah and company’s best efforts.
Prediction: 260 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT; 4 rushes, 25 yards = 28.9 points
RB: Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB33
I’m incredibly high on Raheem Mostert this season, and in Week 1 against a weak Lions D. I fully expect him to go off in his first action of the season. Given the likelihood of a positive gamescript due to the second-largest Vegas spread of the weekend and a PFF ninth-ranked offensive line headed into 2021, Trey Sermon is also a near lock to smash his RB33 ranking.
I’m fully expecting Sermon to be busy in the fourth quarter in mop-up duty as well as mix in throughout the game. A little passing game work won’t hurt either.
Prediction: 13 carries, 63 yards; 2 receptions, 11 yards; 1 total TD = 15.4 points
WR: Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR51
I don’t think Russell Gage will dominate this season, as Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts are sure to be target monsters at their respective positions, but situation matters in fantasy football. In week 1, Gage could find room in the passing attack that will need to keep up with the Eagles offense in what could become a shootout.
Gage is no stranger to 7+ target games. He saw eight of them in 2020. In those games, he averaged over 17 PPR points. Against a middle-of-the-road D according to PFF, Gage should be able to find some soft spots and hit seven targets yet again, helping him well exceed his ECR.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 64 yards, 1 td = 18.4 points
TE: Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE13
I get it. Jonnu Smith is on a new team with increased competition for targets at the position. There is also an incredible amount of newness and uncertainty to the pieces in the offense. In short, we don’t know what’s going to happen. But that’s also why Jonnu is ranked so low. In Week 1, you can capitalize on his ranking and start him knowing that Miami’s defense might not know what to do with all these new weapons.
With Jakobi Meyers likely beating Xavien Howard regularly again (check that Week 15 tape from last season if you don’t believe me), Jonnu should see some open looks in the middle as Brian Flores compensates. With the schemed touches and play action passes headed his way, Smith is good for a top-8 fantasy football finish with the upside for much more.
Prediction: 5 catches, 58 yards; 1 rushes, 6 yards; 1 total TD = 17.4 points
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.