I treat my fantasy football rosters as if they were my children: I give them plenty of necessary attention. I correct mistakes with a caring but firm demeanor; and I straight up drop those that don’t play ball off at the nearest exit and don’t look back.
Of course, that’s not actually how I treat my children – I focus all of my attention on fantasy football, after all – but it is a stark reminder that we all care a little bit too much about this made up math game for sports nerds. If you don’t think you care a little too much, consider how you’ve found yourself reading this article in the first place.
But that’s neither here nor there. The point is, you need deep sleepers for your crucial Week 14 matchups, and I’m here to help. We need to identify the stinkers from the superstars, so let’s do just that.
But first, let’s have a look at how things went down last week.
Week 13 Review
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB – Well, damn. Another sleeper pick and another injury. Given that Brock “Who?” Purdy played well in Jimmy G’s stead, it’s clear this was set up to be a nice spot for the Handsome One. Instead, he broke his foot and will have surgery that will knock him out for the rest of the fantasy football season; if not the rest of the reality season as well. It’s a tough break (pun intended) for the 49ers, who were surging on O behind elite defensive performances all season. Now, they’ll have to do it with a lesser QB behind center – for the 2nd time already this season. Yuck.
- projected: 260/2/0 passing; 5/20/0 rushing
- actual (JG + Purdy): 266/2/1 passing; 1/-4/0 rushing
Jaylen Warren, RB – Writing this on a Friday when most of the fantasy football community assumed Najee Harris would sit this one out; Warren was the clear cut choice to lead the backfield. Of course, he wasn’t that clear cut given he sat the week prior while Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland soaked up all the work. Warren had 3 touches in this one while Snell was the clear cut backup option to Harris. And, if it’s not clear cut enough for you already, you’re clear to cut Warren as long as Najee is healthy enough to play. L.
- projected: 10/50/1 rushing; 2/20/0 receiving
- actual: 1/5/0 rushing; 2/14/0 receiving
Nico Collins, WR – I went back to the well with Nico and it was damn near dry by the time I arrived. I mean, I arrived last week for his high-volume, low-fantasy-output performance. The water was less than fine. Now, against a pretty horrific Browns secondary with a pretty horrific Kyle Allen still calling the shots for the Texans, Collins was even worse; though at least he got in the end zone to help save the day if you started him in fantasy football. This is still not what you wanted out of him in PPR leagues. 12.5 points is fine, but we’re looking for a little more impact. I’ll give myself a ‘push’ on this one though.
- projected: 6/50/1
- actual: 3/35/1
Juwan Johnson, TE – Johnson was my 3rd of 4 picks last week that were impacted by injury. But unlike Jimmy G (injured in-game) and Jaylen Warren (Najee surprisingly healthy), Johnson actually was hurt and inactive after his ankle caused him to miss practice all last week. Instead, it was Taysom Hill who caught a TD and Adam Trautman who filled in. The duo combined for a 4/63/1 line that would’ve looked nice on Johnson. However, that’s not exactly how things work in reality or fantasy. It’s just another L to add on to the pile. Fantastic.
- projected: 4/45/1
- actual (Taysom + Trautman): 4/63/1
Another tough week it was. I’m just trying not to faceplant once again in Week 14. Let’s get into it.
But just before we do, here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
Alright. It is finally time. If you’re still awake, join me as we attempt to figure out just what needs to be done to avoid the uncomfortable position losing standing in your league or missing the playoffs altogether.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 14
QB: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB14
Watson looked miserable in his first action in two seasons last week. While that is easily explained away by game speed and timing issues (as the QB himself noted), it’s still concerning to see just how bad he was. Throwing for 131 yards and 0 touchdowns against the Texans is inexcusable, unless you have Watson’s excuse.
I’m expecting a little bit of a turnaround this weekend. Nothing crazy, but Watson will need to get better. I believe he begins to round back into form this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati just hasn’t been the same after losing corner Chidobe Awuzie to injury a month ago. While they’ve tightened up the ship lately with youth leading the way, they likely won’t know what to make of Watson in just his second game back from a long hiatus. Again, I’m not expecting the elite QB1 we know Watson to be to simply emerge from his cocoon, but he should take a step back toward his normal, excellent self. One passing TD and 1 on the ground should do just that against a Bengals team that should have no trouble putting up points on Cleveland.
Watson’s viability has much more to do with the fact that the Browns will need to score to keep up than Watson being ready or back to normal. Expect things to progress slowly; but Cleveland will have to throw in this one and Watson will experience plenty of pressure to make him move around.
Prediction: 230 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 6 rushes, 30 yards, 1 TD = 20.2 points
RB: Travis Homer, Seattle Seahawks
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB47
At the time of writing this piece, not much is known about the status of Kenneth Walker or DJ Dallas. While Homer has been 3rd in the pecking order traditionally, the involvement of Tony Jones Jr last week was surprising.
Homer is over his small injury and is back on the practice field this week. So far, neither Walker or Dallas can say the same. So, with six teams on bye and the Rams having played but “boasting” 2 backs outside the top 30 of ECR, give me the Hawks going full Homer in a home date with the Panthers. Carolina has given up the 9th most fantasy points to backs this season and is fairly stout in other areas. I like Homer to find room on the ground and through the air as a result.
Though the carry total may be a little high, Homer may indeed be the only dog in this one. Even if he isn’t, he’s got a good shot to head the committee as the alpha. If KW3 and DJD sit, Homer is a borderline must-start.
Prediction: 9 carries, 40 yards; 4 receptions, 35 yards; 1 total TD = 17.5 points
WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR50
I can’t believe I’m doing this again… but here we are. Collins is now somehow ranked as the ECR WR50 in a week where six teams are on bye. We need to end the disrespect. Or, rather, Nico himself needs to end it.
With Darius Slayton posting similar numbers over the past month (except for his yards per catch), he’s ranked as the WR30 against a stout Philly D. And here we are with Collins as the WR50. Now, the Texans are facing the Dallas D in Dallas and Diggs and company have been quite good; but the fact remains that Collins has earned the lion’s share of targets in this offense of late and Davis Mills is now back behind center. Certainly, the tumult on this Texans team and the rotation at QB is concerning, but Collins has produced through it all. And against the Cowboys, Houston will need to throw the ball a ton to keep up.
Dallas is going to score. Nico Collins will have ample opportunity to do so, as well.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
TE: Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE16
I’ll apply similar logic to Bellinger this week. Like Collins, he plays a stout defense that can shut pas-catchers down. And like Collins, the rankings aren’t necessarily in his favor when it comes to the amount of fantasy points their opponents cede to their respective positions. But this is once again a case of who-else-is-there? A case as old as time…
Anyway, Bellinger was thrust back into solid usage in his first game back last week, putting up a modest 5 for 24 line against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders happen to be the best at defending fantasy TEs in the entire league. With Bellinger now fully recovered from his freak orbital fracture, he should find much more room to roam in a home matchup against the Eagles.
Philly is stout pretty much everywhere on D, so it won’t be easy, but I still like Bellinger (along with Slayton) to put up some decent numbers in this one. Especially with Barkley hurting this week, the load will be further condensed to just a few guys.
I like Bellinger to see a fair share of work this week; even if his yards per catch remain low. All he’ll need is a trip to the end zone to recoup value this week, but his volume should be decent enough, too.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD = 15.0 points
At the lip of the playoffs, we’ve gotta have a nose for the guys that can open up eyes in Week 14. If you choose correctly, you could be headed to the top of the standings. And, if you listen closely, you can hear the sound of joyous fantasy football managers who have earned a berth.
Here’s hoping that’s you this week. What’s that smell? Smells like victory after you drop a crapload of points on your opponents’ faces this week. Good luck.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.