Which members of the 2022 NFL Draft class will see their fantasy value sink or swim going forward?
We now have a year’s worth of NFL tape from the 2022 draft class. It brought us the highs of Garrett Wilson, and the lows of Isaiah Spiller. As we near the 2023 NFL Draft, I wanted to look at last year’s class and project the potential of the most fantasy-relevant players going forward. After all, how else can you succeed in fantasy football without trying to correctly project the future of its players. In this segment, we’ll be looking at the quarterbacks.
None of the quarterbacks from the ’22 class started the entire season, so I’ll be steering away from more advanced statistics – for now. With that said, let’s get into it.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers – Swim
Honestly, it’s hard to come away inspired from Pickett’s rookie season. The raw data wasn’t impressive, as Pickett threw 7 TDs to 9 INT – with 3 rushing touchdowns – in 13 games. Pickett threw for 2404 yards, only cracking 300 passing yards once despite having six games with 30 or more attempts. He was also 33rd in Y/A in 2022 with 6.2, only ahead of Kyler Murray.
With all that being said, why do I have him swimming instead of sinking for fantasy football purposes?
The Steelers organization knows how to build around its players the right way. They’ve made it a point to add along the offensive line this offseason, a weakness the team had in 2022. Isaac Seumalo should slide into a starting guard spot, while Nate Herbig and Le’Raven Clark should provide solid depth. On top of that, it’s likely the Steelers add another OL in the draft this year.
They also have an excellent set of skill position players on their roster. Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens give Pickett a plethora of options. Unless we see a Mason Rudolph-Earl Thomas incident, I’m expecting Pickett to continue to improve going forward, having the chance to be the next cornerstone quarterback for the Steelers.
NFL Network @KyleBrandt talks about if Kenny Pickett will join the elite QB conversation #steelers #kennypickett pic.twitter.com/r6qIEccFvo
— matthew luciow (@Luciow1992) April 11, 2023
I don’t expect Pickett to blow anyone away as a QB for fantasy football. In fact, I think he’ll be a better NFL QB than fantasy QB. With that said, I see Pickett as a mid-QB2 who could find himself as a low-end QB1 depending on the offense.
Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans – Sink
After being hyped up as a potential first round pick, Willis slipped all the way to the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. As we get closer to the 2023 NFL Draft, there’s already rumblings that the Titans aren’t as impressed with Willis as they once were. It didn’t help that when given the chance to play, Willis posted one of the lowest EPA’s of all quarterbacks.
The team still has yet to release Ryan Tannehill as well. All in all, things aren’t looking good for Willis.
I don’t expect Willis to start, nor to be relevant in fantasy football. If you’re a fantasy manager with Willis on your team, the best bet is to get what you can for him now.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons – Floating
When I imagined myself writing this article, I didn’t think Ridder would find himself outside of the ‘sink’ section. Ridder didn’t start a game last season until Week 14, and only managed to throw two touchdowns in four games. With that said, Ridder did put up an impressive performance against the Bucs in Week 18. He threw both of his touchdowns in that game, passing for 224 yards. Nothing overly impressive, but Ridder has shown to play mistake-free football early in his career.
This offseason, the Falcons were a favorite to target Lamar Jackson. That is, until the team announced they had no interest in Jackson and were committing to Ridder. The team did however sign former Washington QB Taylor Heinicke. If Ridder can survive the draft without the team taking a quarterback, all signs point to go for the second-year QB.
If Ridder can continue to play mistake-free football, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him as the Falcons starter for the forseeable future. Ridder doesn’t need to be Patrick Mahomes to have fantasy football relevance. If he can be Ryan Tannehill in an Arthur Smith offense (who coached Tannehill as OC of the Titans), Riddell will stay in the QB2 territory going forward with a QB1 ceiling.
With that said, nothing about Ridder should be guaranteed after this season unless he puts up an other-worldly performance. Because of that uncertainty, he’s a ‘floating’ for me.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders – Swim
I listed Howell as a fantasy football winner after the results of NFL free agency, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him here.
Howell’s only competition right now is Jacoby Brissett. I’m not sleeping on Brissett, but I’m holding firm in my belief that Howell is the true QB1 of the 2022 draft class.
Analysts point to Howell’s rushing prowess in 2021 as a reason to be excited, but it’s his fluidity as a player that should be priased as an elite trait – especially at the quarterback position.
The offense ran by UNC before 2021 was a completely difference offense than what the team was forced to run in Howell’s final collegiate season. Howell became the UNC starter as a True Freshman and was a top QB prospect until 2021; a plethora of his teammates leave for the NFL and the UNC offense had Howell to running for his life on more than one occasion. Despite that, Howell still produced at an incredible level. Unfortunately, his lower passing numbers in 2021 were seen as a knock on his performance, instead of being a victim of circumstance.
Howell’s Week 18 game against the Dallas Cowboys showed he has potential.
I think Howell should comfortably be a QB2. With Eric Bieniemy at OC and weapons in Washington, he could find himself as a top-end quarterback. Count me as one of his believers going forward.
This is a high, high quality throw from Sam Howell. Wow pic.twitter.com/5XPdaFYsIX
— Ethan Cadeaux (@Ethan_Cadeaux) January 8, 2023
