Is any team currently more difficult to predict than the Green Bay Packers? There’s nothing worse for fantasy football than uncertainty at the QB position, and trying to determine its effects on the rest of the offense is exhausting.
Plenty of teams still have an ambiguous hierarchy: Drew Lock vs. Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill vs. Jameis Winston, etc. But the Packers have by far the largest skill gap between QB options at this point in the offseason, and it puts all their WRs into fantasy purgatory.
So how should you feel about Davante Adams? Will Aaron Jones still find success? And who has the edge between Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling? I discussed the general Packers offense in my previous article, but today I want to talk about a potential sleeper pick for the 2021 season: rookie WR Amari Rodgers.
College Career
First, let’s get some background on the new A. Rodgers in town. Amari spent all four years of his college career with Clemson, and was an important piece of their playoff-caliber squads. He’s built more like a running back at 5’10”, 212 lbs, and the Tigers used him in both receiver and returner roles throughout his time with the team.
Amari’s last year with Clemson was by far his best, racking up 1,020 receiving yards and 7 TDs on 77 catches. He’s exceptionally strong, ranking in the 99th percentile in bench press reps and coming in tied for 7th in forced missed tackles among college WRs. A lack of speed seems to be his main concern but that hasn’t stopped him from finding success in catch and run situations, placing 2nd in YAC last season.
With a profile similar to WRs like Deebo Samuel or Laviska Shenault, Amari is a self-proclaimed “gadget guy” that can lineup in the slot, return kicks, and get the occasional rushing opportunity. He strikes me as a new version of Aaron Rodgers’ old friend Randall Cobb, and could end up just as successful if he manages to form a connection with whoever the Packers’ QB ends up being. Regardless, the Packers traded up to take Amari in the 3rd round of the draft so I would be surprised if he doesn’t see some action this season.
Packers Receivers
My belief that Amari has a chance at fantasy football relevance this year is mostly due to the unstable nature of the Packers’ WR group. Of course Davante Adams will be the #1 option and Robert Tonyan could become heavily used in goal line scenarios, but beyond that the team has no real WR2. Allen Lazard occasionally flashes potential but has never had a season with more than 500 yards or 3 TDs, despite playing with one of the greatest QBs of all time. Their other option is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, a fantastic deep threat but most likely nothing more.
Seeing as the Packers have used a slot-by-committee approach in recent years, Amari could end up being their dedicated slot WR in 2021. The departure of receiving RB Jamaal Williams could open up some jet sweep or screen opportunities for Amari as well. It’s a bit of a guessing game between Lazard, MVS, and Amari, but any piece of this offense holds some fantasy value.
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Vacated Targets
Finally, let’s break down the Packers’ target distribution from last season and see if it might have space for yet another mouth to feed. Aaron Rodgers threw roughly 33 passes per game last year, with the targets shaking down as follows:
- Adams: 10.6 targets per game
- Lazard: 4.6
- Jones: 4.5
- MVS: 3.9
- Tonyan: 3.7
- Williams: 2.5
- Other: 3.2
If Jordan Love is the starting QB this year, I don’t expect Adams to have his same enormous target share. That decrease combined with Williams’ vacated targets leaves a legitimate opening for Amari to get 3-5 targets per game, especially if Lazard or MVS ends up getting phased out. It might not happen at the start of the season, but Amari Rodgers has a serious chance at the Packers’ WR2 role. A player with that kind of upside would be well worth a flier pick in the later rounds of fantasy football drafts.
