With three Thanksgiving games this Thursday, I had a tough time staying up to watch all the games. To be completely honest, I failed. Let’s just say I am thankful for the NFL Gamepass and full game replays. Although no teams are on bye, this is still shaping up to be one of the most difficult fantasy football deep dive sleeper selections of the season.
Now that Turkey Day is in the rearview mirror, it’s time shake off that tryptophan and get down to business. It’s time to turn a keen eye toward Sunday to understand who is being slept on; who plans to have a lot on their plate and clean up their leftovers this weekend.
But before we take a look ahead and dream of what can be, let’s take a look back at last week.
Week 11 Review
Marcus Mariota, QB – Last week’s QB14 had a golden opportunity to light up the Bears, but Chicago has been much better against the pass than the run this season. Even still, that’s more a product of their losing record and being behind in games than anything else.
But Fields and the Bears O had been rolling, so this could have shaped up to be a shootout. Instead, another low passing volume day, a Kyle Pitts injury and a Bears D that has stepped up some contributed to just an average outing for Mariota. In the end, the Bears controlled the time of possession while, despite the win, the Falcons were just 2 for 9 on 3rd downs. That level of inefficiency is not what Mariota needs to be successful in fantasy football; especially when he only throws 20 passes. L.
- projected: 210/2/1 passing; 6/40/1 rushing
- actual: 131/1/0 passing; 13/25/1 rushing
Elijah Mitchell, RB – Mitchell continued his strong showing in the San Francisco backfield; but it didn’t matter for fantasy football, since he didn’t find the end zone. Finishing as the RB36, it was nearly every other 9er that had a day. Aiyuk and Kittle had 2 TDs each, Deebo found the end zone, and CMC ate up 14 opportunities on the ground and was highly efficient, even though he did not hit pay dirt. Given everyone else’s success, this was just an unlucky spot for those who started Mitchell. He’ll need to be efficient with his limited looks on the ground – and he was – but it didn’t result in a great day. Another L at RB this week.
- projected: 12/60/1 rushing; 2/15/0 receiving
- actual: 9/59/0 rushing; 0/0/0 receiving
Michael Gallup, WR – Gallup surprisingly didn’t have many looks in Week 11, but that was likely due to a 40-3 blowout win over the Vikings. Though Dallas boasts a very good D, it was still surprising that one of the league’s top offenses couldn’t muster much against them and keep it competitive. But CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz were equally ineffective as Tony Pollard took the game over, both on the ground and through the air. His 2 receiving TDs and 189 total yards left little else for Cowboys skill players; yet Zeke still managed to close it out with 2 rushing TDs of his own. Gallup saw more looks this week in a win against the Giants on Thanksgiving, but that doesn’t help managers who started him last week.
- projected: 5/65/1
- actual: 3/41/0
Gerald Everett, TE – Whelp, though it was a risk, Everett ended up failing to suit up; and the receivers soaked up everything else anyway to leave little for backup TE options on the Chargers. In fact, only one TE even recorded a catch for Los Angeles; someone named Stone Smartt… who I and many others have never heard of. So even projecting Smartt’s stats on Everett does nothing for this pick. There’s not much left to say about this one other than this was another big miss.
- projected: 5/50/1
- actual (Smartt): 1/6/0
After four Ls last week, I’m hungry for some production on my picks this week. But before we discuss who’s set to carve up the competition in Week 12, let’s get some business out of the way…
Here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
Now it’s time to find those magical side dishes that are bound to make your mouth water in Week 12. Let’s have a look..
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 12
QB: Taylor Heinicke, Washington Commanders
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB21
I could gamble on Fields playing this week, or even go back to the well with Mariota. Instead, I’ll try to see if Heinicke can replicate what Fields did last week against Mariota’s Falcons – finishing as the QB7 on the week.
Heinicke has burned me before, and hasn’t helped fantasy football managers for the past two weeks; but a date with the Atlanta D should help. The unit has given up the 9th most fantasy points on the season to QBs and the 4th most to WRs. Washington has plenty of talented wideouts to take advantage and help Heinicke make the most of his day, while his receiving backs and TEs should also find room to roam. Should he make the most of his opportunity and continue to make plays with his legs, he should be in for a nice outing in this one.
I like Heinicke to throw the ball all over the yard in this one, but that’s a relative statement as it’s still Taylor Heinicke. Nonetheless, he should have a pretty good afternoon.
Prediction: 250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 5 rushes, 20 yards = 20.0 points
RB: Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB40
McKinnon had a difficult outing in Week 11, but he still managed more work than fellow backfield-mate Clyde Edwards Helaire. Instead, Isiah Pacheco took over and managed 107 yards on 15 carries. But that’s not likely to happen again against the Rams this week.
While Pacheco is sure to get his, it’s sure not to amount to much. That’s because LA has ceded just the 26th most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. In fact, the only place the defense has been vulnerable is through the air on the outside. With Aaron Donald and Bobby Wagner making things difficult up the middle, Mahomes is bound to look outside more than usual with Kelce likely tied up. That should mean a few more opportunities for his wideouts and McKinnon with a game that looks a lot more like his 8 target outings from Weeks 9 and 10 as opposed to his 1 target day in Week 11.
Jet should get back to his high target volume ways this week. Though a score will be difficult, this offense has proven it can get it done, even against elite defensive units.
Prediction: 5 carries, 20 yards; 5 receptions, 50 yards; 1 total TD = 18.0 points
WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR45
Collins has been seeing targets since his two-game absence a few weeks ago, racking up 17 targets in Weeks 10 and 11. He turned that into 10 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. Now he’ll travel to Miami, an offense that is certain to put up points against a lackluster Texans defense.
The Texans are the worst run defense in the league. In fact, they’re so bad that teams are poor passing the ball against them, largely because they don’t need to. With two former 49er backs and the former 49er OC, we know McDaniel isn’t afraid to run the ball into the ground. That means a scoring points and controlling the clock will force the Texans into passing the ball.
Even though Davis Mills has been so bad this season that he’s been benched, Lovie Smith and company still allowed him to chuck it 70 times over the past two weeks. With Kyle Allen now behind center, I expect the Texans to want to run the ball more, though I also expect it not to be possible. With Xavien Howard – now healthier after the bye – sure to blanket Brandin Cooks, give me Collins to once again soak up plenty of targets.
In a game the Texans are all-but-certain to be losing by double-digits at some point, I like Collins to have himself a game; especially in garbage-time, comeback mode – the mode we all love for fantasy football.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD = 16.5 points
TE: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE20
I can’t deal with yet another inactive Gerald Everett, otherwise he’s a smash if he plays against Arizona. And Foster Moreau is just out of reach at TE11. So I’ll go with Mike Gesicki, who is just as likely to post 3 tuddies against the Texans as he is to cede all his work to Miami’s two star wideouts.
Gesicki has largely been lost in the shuffle this season as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have dominated fantasy football and reality football. The stud WRs have broken the game, currently sitting as the fantasy PPR WR2 and WR6, respectively. As such, Gesicki’s production has been spotty; finishing as a top 8 TE 3 times, and outside the top 20 the other 7. While this doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, what should is the matchup against the Texans. They struggle against TEs despite not giving up much of anything in the passing game.
As mentioned above with Nico Collins, the Texans D is prone to the run, but the Dolphins promise to be in the red zone a ton in this one. While Lovie Smith has his hands full with Hill, Waddle and the backs, I’m betting that Gesicki sneaks past them all and into the end zone.
Though it’s no safe play, not much outside the top 12 at TE ever is. If I’m not chasing the points on Logan Thomas or banking on an Evan Engram bounce-back this week, give me Gesicki in a good spot at home.
Prediction: 4 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 15.0 points
That’s another deep sleeper week in the books. Here’s hoping your bellies are fat with stuffing and your starting lineups are stuffed with productivity, even if you have to plug in a few deeper plays this week.
Happy belated Thanksgiving to all… and to all a good Week 12!
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.