It’s important to be flexible this time of year. Teams and roles are solidified; fantasy football and reality playoffs are around the corner and you need to focus on winning the chip. That means that you may need to make some last-minute deals before trade deadlines pass. Or, if they already have, consider moving on from bench mainstays and mixing it up on the waiver wire.
Whatever moves need to be made, just know that remaining stagnant is akin to fantasy death. Missing out on a late-season wire add can be a backbreaking affair, as the playoff deep sleeper can slip right through your grasp.
Hopefully I can help you navigate those players that should be in your starting lineups week-to-week; helping to avoid any stall on your way to a championship. As we know, this game we love can often come down to luck of the draw in the waning moments of the year. Make sure you end up in good standing; sitting at the top of the heap on your, er, throne as a champion by employing some irregular tactics.
Before we dive deep into this week’s sleepers, let’s have a look at the positional choices I made last week and assess how they look now in retrospect.
Week 12 Review
Taylor Heinicke, QB – I swore off Heinicke a few weeks ago, but he suckered me back in so I got what I deserved. Taylor finished as just the QB24; attempting just 23 passes as his Commanders barely managed a W against the Falcons and their terrible D. A 60% completion percentage and 2 TDs is what we want out of our streaming QBs. 137 total yards, however, will never get it done in fantasy football at the position. There’s not much left to say here. Fool me once, shame on… shame on you. Fool me twice… well, er… you can’t get fooled again. L.
- projected: 250/2/0 passing; 5/20/0 rushing
- actual: 138/2/1 passing; 1/-1/0 rushing
Jerick McKinnon, RB – I was pretty clear that I didn’t expect much volume on the ground for McKinnon. But he didn’t have any volume there – at all. No rushing attempts meant he’d have to make it up through the air. Given he had 6 targets, his 3 receptions for 26 yards and no TDs was especially disappointing. Just a 34% snap share while Ronald Jones logged his first meaningful work on the season was the proverbial nail in the coffin for my hopes of his fantasy relevance. His hamstring is likely to keep him out this week, but his baffling usage should keep him out of your lineups going forward. Maybe it’ll be Melvin Gordon now. Who knows? L again.
- projected: 5/20/0 rushing; 5/50/1 receiving
- actual: 0/0/0 rushing; 3/26/0 receiving
Nico Collins, WR – It was a smash spot for the Texans clear 1B receiving option; but a healthier-than-advertised Brandin Cooks, a new starting QB in Kyle Allen and his lowest yards per target on the season mean that Collins didn’t come through as he should have for fantasy football managers this past weekend. Miami got out to a 30-0 lead by halftime, so the garbage time was fruitful for Collins. Unfortunately, however, he failed to find the end zone and managed just 44 yards. Kyle Allen is targeting Nico, and that’s a good thing. What might not help his case in future weeks is the fact that Allen is not pushing the ball down field. Let’s see if that changes. Either way, it’s another disappointing L for me.
- projected: 5/55/1
- actual: 6/44/0
Mike Gesicki, TE – Inexplicably, Gesicki only managed to record a solitary target and no other stats; as the Houston Texans somehow corralled him while giving up 30 points by the half. Durham Smythe ended up the preferred option, recording 2 receptions and a touchdown, vulturing any and all Miami TE stats in the process. Hill and Waddle were just fine; but this game was more about the Dolphins defense and their 2 scores, sewing up a 5-game winning streak after just two quarters. Gesicki and most of the other offensive weapons weren’t needed much in the second half, so this is yet another bad look for my picks last week.
- projected: 4/50/1
- actual: 0/0/0
Well, that was horrifying. Here’s to bending over backward in an effort to make up for my earlier bad decisions and redeem myself this week.
But first, here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
Okay, we’re finally ready to get to the good stuff. Let’s find out which deep sleepers will help you find your footing and take your team to the promised land this week – by any means necessary.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 13
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB14
As soon as I saw that Jimmy G would be an option for me, I pounced on the chance to pick him. I mean, not only does he face a Miami defense that can be exposed through the air, but he’s also got plenty of weapons around him to help improve his chances of extreme production.
Garoppolo and the 9ers are currently enjoying a 4-game win streak. In an unrelated note, Christian McCaffrey played his first full complement of snaps for the 49ers four games ago. Now it is true that CMC is no longer 100% healthy, and the run game will further struggle now that Elijah Mitchell is done for the rest of the season. But I still like Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle and whoever they decide to put in the backfield to help Jimmy become the G he can sometimes be. Knowing that the Dolphins will be a much easier task than taking on the Saints as he did a week ago, I expect the whole offense to find its way into the end zone plenty in this one.
With ailing running backs, it’ll be next man up; but the Dolphins actually fare well against the run. Look for Kittle and the rest of the pass catchers to have big days, while Garoppolo gets things clicking once again.
Prediction: 260 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 4 rushes, 15 yards = 21.9 points
RB: Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB48
Warren sat out last week due to injury; but he’s been practicing throughout this week and should be ready to go in the absence of star RB Najee Harris, who is himself recovering from an abdomen issue. Despite Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland getting the run last week, it should be Warren who handles the load in this one.
The team’s preferred backup option to Harris in the early season, Warren has logged plenty of work already this season. He even finished as a backend RB2 in fantasy football in Week 10, posting 77 total yards. That was against a stout Saints front. This week, he’ll see the Falcons, who have given up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing backs on the season; and have actually been even worse than that number suggests. Warren is unlikely to carry the mail the entire way as Snell and McFarland impressed last week. Even still, he should find the end zone, even if it is behind a very poor O line.
Warren looks to get the first crack at RB duties, and has looked like he has some juice in earlier matchups this year. Assuming he’s over his injury, which by all accounts he is, I like him to find the end zone in this one.
Prediction: 10 carries, 50 yards; 2 receptions, 20 yards; 1 total TD = 16.0 points
WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR43
Collins had a very solid game in terms of volume last week. He even produced well, though he failed to score. That turned him into an average play at the position. Here, we’re looking for guys who can pop in your fantasy football lineups. So, let’s go right back to Nico.
This week he faces a terrible Browns D that will now be the beneficiaries of a very good Browns O with new signal caller Deshaun Watson finally taking the field.
The Browns have been fine with Jacoby Brissett at the helm; but with the all-too-poignant history of Watson and the Texans as the backdrop for this one, I fully expect the Browns O to go off and take every opportunity to destroy the Texans in Houston. What does that mean for Collins? Well, more garbage-time production, of course.
He’s in a great spot, with a terrible D of his own, to enter into a shootout. Given how bad the Cleveland defense as a whole has been this season, it should be reasonable to expect Collins to have another nice day – and also hit paydirt.
Cooks has been limited in practices all week with a calf injury. That should further cement Collins into your lineups. Don’t hesitate to plug him in if you need him.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 17 points
TE: Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE17
The Saints TE1 had a down day last week, especially as backup TE Adam Trautman saw plenty more run. While some may see this as a sign of things to come, I look at the imposing 49ers front and Trautman and see that he was needed on the field much more for his blocking ability.
While that may or may not be entirely accurate, what is true is that Johnson has proven his worth in the receiving game for the Saints this year. Tre’Quan Smith has been unreliable and Michael Thomas is done once again for the year. Only rookie Chris Olave can claim any sort of fantasy football relevance for New Orleans pass catchers. That is… except for Johnson.
Excluding last week’s shutout in San Francisco, Johnson has finished as the TE2, 8, 4 and 6 in four of the last five weeks. He’s also managed 5 TDs in that span. Andy Dalton looks to him frequently. That should be no different this week as the Saints go to Tampa and take on a group that has surprisingly allow TEs to run wild on them.
The Bucs have given up the 6th most fantasy points to TEs this season; and Johnson is the only weapon outside of Olave that has been a reliable receiver. With TB looking to take away AK and Olave, Johnson should be able to do work and even find the end zone yet again.
Prediction: 6 receptions, 50 yards, 1 TD = 17.0 points
Here’s hoping your push to the playoffs ends comes out the way you want it to. If not, well, try not to get all bent outta shape about it. Good luck in week 13!
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.