I am exhausted; as usual. Between the start of the NFL season, my son’s 8th birthday and a full week of reality and fantasy football work, it’s been a hard to find time to catch 40 winks. But there’s just too much data and tape to pour through after our first meaning football games in six months.
Yet, as a general disclaimer, tired or not, it is crucial not to overreact to all of the hot takes that come along with Week 1 action. Too many fades or claims staked on players can be dangerous business; just like the image to this week’s piece suggests. Roger?
Be cautious. Be smart. And don’t fall into traps that are easily avoidable.
Now that that’s said, it’s my business to find the diamonds in the rough that fly in the face of consensus experts. While that is incredibly difficult, it’s worth looking at which industry fades can turn on the afterburners. To climb the ranks to help you fly high in your league’s standings week after week.
So, without further ado, let’s see how I fared with my Week 1 calls below. Spoiler alert: turbulence ahead.
Week 1 Review
Kirk Cousins, QB – Captain Kirk was the fantasy football QB12 last week after being ranked QB14. His two TDs were a slight disappointment given how effective their offense seemed to be; but the Packers had difficulty putting up points in this one. That led to a dialed back passing attack in the 2nd half. Though Cousins went 8 for 11 in that span, he threw 0 TDs. Given his stats, if he throws one more TD he’s the QB6. But alas, he earns me the L in Week 1.
- Projected: 280/3/1 passing, 15 yards rushing
- Actual: 277/2/0 passing, 0 yards rushing
Melvin Gordon, RB – Gordon was the RB36 by consensus ranking ahead of Week 1. However, a goal line fumble assured he would end the week even worse than that projection. Had Gordon held on to the ball and punched it in, he would’ve been the week’s RB21. Instead, he was the RB47. Like Cousins, I nailed his usage, but got nailed for the lack of a TD. L #2.
- Projected: 10/56/1 rushing, 2/15/0 receiving
- Actual: 2/58/0 rushing, 2/14/0 receiving
Rondale Moore, WR – Though it was possible at the time of publishing, I still bet on Rondale to play in Week 1. Instead, it was Greg Dortch who took his place in the lineup. So, though this is another L.
We’ll have a look at Dortch’s line for comparison’s sake. The usage was nice as Dortch saw 9 targets; but his abilities just could not turn that into a score. Dortch ended the week as the fantasy football WR30. That’s a near-win, but we have the wrong guy. Had Rondale been in there, I’m confident we’d be looking at a W. But, well, here we are. L again.
- Projected (Moore): 6/45/1 receiving
- Actual (Dortch): 7/63/0 receiving
Albert Okwuegbunam, TE – Albert O was arguably the biggest L I’ll take this week; since Cousins and Gordon were near misses given situation and, had Moore played, things could have gone very differently assuming Dortch’s usage. The issue with Okwuegbunam, unfortunately, were the constant rotation of TEs for Denver. Despite earning 6 targets, he lost out on 5 additional TE targets to three other TEs; Andrew Beck (3), Eric Tomlinson (1) and Eric Saubert (1). If this rotation continues, it won’t matter that he was the 3rd highest targeted player on the week; especially if he can’t find the end zone.
- Projected: 5/50/1 receiving
- Actual: 5/33/0 receiving
Well, I’m hitting nicely on the usage, but the TDs were elusive in Week 1. We know that it is fairly difficult to predict TDs anyway, but it is kind of what needs to happen to uncover those consensus outliers. So, well, rock – me – hard place. I’ll keep hammering away at these fantasy football sleepers though; knowing that the outcomes are close and based on fairly decent process.
As always, before I dive into Week 2, here’s a reminder of how we’re defining fantasy football sleepers and wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
Okay, we’ve done it. Week 1 is in the books. On to Week 2.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 2
QB: Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB15
Like some in the fantasy football community, I was super high on Lance coming into the season. His rare combination of arm strength and rushing prowess, though still raw, was enough to force the 49ers to trade up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select him 3rd overall. But now, after one week in monsoon conditions, some are willing to call him a bust; confirming their priors when some couldn’t even perform simple actions like eating popcorn while taking in the game.
This week, despite some expected rain, I’m looking for Lance to be what truthers believe he is: a big-play machine with plenty of weapons around him; running a scheme that should help him and his teammates routinely find open space all over the field. Against a Seattle team that is headed for a let-down after a huge win over their former QB, I’m expecting Trey and company to make waves (that hopefully literally won’t make their way on to the field).
For me, Lance is a good bet to find the end zone multiple times. Coupled with his rushing stats – especially now that RB1 Elijah Mitchell is lost for multiple weeks – he has the upside to finish as top-5 at the position this week.
Prediction: 200 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 12 rushes, 75 yards, 1 TD = 23.5 points
RB: Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB35
As mentioned above, Gordon’s Week 1 woud’ve been a lot less disappointing had he not fumbled on the goal line. After losing to the lowly Seahawks on the road, the entire Broncos team should be out for blood at home in Week 2; as they host another surprising non-week 1 loser in the Texans.
This week, we’ll run it back with Gordon. He should again soak up plenty of opportunity, especially in the second half. The Broncos D should give Davis Mills and the rest of the Texans offense fits, leading to a run-heavy script for Gordon and runningmate Javonte Williams. In short, there should be more than enough opportunity once again in the Denver backfield to go around in this one.
Like last week, I expect Gordon to parlay his double-digit touches into an efficient outing. Unlike last week, I expect him to punch it into the end zone as the Broncos rout their opponent.
Prediction: 11 carries, 65 yards; 2 receptions, 20 yards; 1 TD = 16.5 points
WR: Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR63
Peoples-Jones was tied for sixth in overall targets in Week 1. He was the beneficiary of 11 looks from interim QB Jacoby Brissett. To put it another way, DPJ saw as many targets last week as Justin Jefferson; and two more than Stefon Diggs. That is elite opportunity for the late-round fantasy football dart throw WR.
Now, Amari Cooper is potentially dealing with a minor injury. It appears as though the stars are aligning for Peoples-Jones. The Jets were pretty stingy in terms of allowing receptions in Week 1, but they did allow WR2 Devin Duvernay to catch 2 TDs last week; while Rashod Bateman also snuck behind them for a score. Even in what is likely to become a rush-heavy script, DPJ has TD and volume upside this week.
Peoples-Jones could very well find the end zone this week or earn a number of targets. Especially if the Jets are focused on the running game.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD = 17.0 points
TE: Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE21
Thomas is somehow how all-the-way back after a horrific neck injury; running routes and earning targets. The only problem is that everyone earned targets and produced for the Commanders offense in Week 1. Against the lowly Jags, QB Carson Wentz went nuclear and finished as the fantasy football QB3 on the week.
Despite the offensive onslaught in Week 1, Thomas only caught 3 balls for 45 scoreless yards. Next to the production of Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson, this line looks incredibly light. However, a Week 2 date with the Detroit Lions is just what the doctor ordered for Thomas. The Lions are a small step up from the Jags D and should at least maybe cover a WR or two.
In this one, Thomas should provide a checkdown option and midfield threat who can score while the other weapons are drawing attention.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 45 yards, 1 TD = 15.5 points
Here’s hoping your Sundays are filed with excitement and your Mondays are restful. Just be wary of where you catch your Zs; and together, maybe we can avoid the dangerous Ls in week 2.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.