The TE position is the toughest to hit on in all of fantasy football. Too many players are TD dependent which makes it hard to predict. Yesterday I did an in depth look at my TEs 24-35 – with some outside options as well. This week I look into the next two tiers.
I found this group the toughest to rank. There is a lot of potential, but so many question marks as well. I’ll tell you what I believe you should be doing with this tier on your fantasy football dynasty rosters. I hope you enjoy reading and let me know what you think, you can find me at @DynastyHoser on Twitter.
Tier 4 – Upside, But Uncertain
Ertz, Thomas, Tonyan, Hooper and Everett could be every-week starters this year, but age and inconsistency come into play which moves them down. McBride and Jordan are the young guns in this tier who could rise as the season moves on.
25. Austin Hooper (Tennessee Titans) 61-38-345-3
Hooper is one of the very few tight ends who was a top target and led his team in red zone targets. However, despite having fifteen red zone targets, he only converted on three. Despite all those targets he only caught 62% of them and had a 6.6% drop rate.
Hooper has been a huge disappointment in fantasy football since making the move to the Browns. In the 2020 season he was on a better pace, but missed three games resulting in back-to-back finishes outside the top-20.
I believed with the amount of money committed to Hooper, he was a lock to stay with the Browns. However, the Browns released him. Will he find enough targets in the Titans run-first offense? Nothing from the last two years makes me excited to roster Hooper. Yet there is a chance at 27, he can turn things around again and become a safe starter.
Back in 2019, he finished as the fantasy football TE6 despite only playing 13 games. That year he averaged 11.9 points per game, Maybe he can get back to that on a new team. Hey, Beckham turned things around once he was away from Mayfield!
With A.J. Brown out of town I moved Hooper up into this tier. He has a chance to fight for second on this team in targets. Robert Woods is coming off a late season injury and Burks is a rookie.
24. Robert Tonyan (Green Bay Packers) 29-18-204-2
Tonyan was the surprise of 2020, where he came out of nowhere and averaged 9.4 points per game as the TE3 in fantasy football. However, this was the result of being on the receiving end of eleven Aaron Rodgers TD passes.
We all expected regression from Tonyan this year, but what we saw in the first seven games before injuries was more than regression. Before his injury in Week 8, he was the TE21 and only averaged five points per game.
He is an undrafted free agent on his second team. I think he had his one grand season tied to one of the best QBs to ever play. He only signed a one year deal, but with the current pass-catching group for the Packers he could come close to a repeat of 2020. Unless of course those Waller to the Packers rumours come true. The only reason he is this high is because he is tied to Rodgers.
23. Logan Thomas (Washington Commanders) 25-18-196-3
Despite being injured for the majority of the year, Thomas was productive when on the field. He averaged 8.9 fantasy points per game. That was the same pace as last year when he finished as the TE6.
One concerning issue with Thomas though, he averaged 6.9 targets per game in 2020, but only 4.1 this past year. He just happened to score 3 TDs in his five healthy games. Carson Wentz is an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke, but can he learn to check it down to his safe options?
Thomas is signed for another three years, but could be cut next offseason to save 5.25 million in cap space, or in 2024 when the savings would be 6.5 million.
If you are contending the next couple years, Thomas is probably worth holding onto. He will be 31 when the season begins. His trade value isn’t enough to make it worth getting rid of him. If you are looking to trade him, you are better off waiting and hoping he is having a decent season so you can ship him off for a second round pick before the playoffs.
Right now as a contender in need of a TE, a mid third could land you Thomas. I don’t know if I totally buy into him being an upside play. However, Greg Olsen had two productive years inside his thirties in Ron Rivera’s system, so he could be a safe option.
22. Zach Ertz (Arizona Cardinals) 112-74-763-5
It’s hard to get excited about a tight end who is on the wrong side of 30 whose name isn’t Kelce or Gronkowski. However, Ertz showed he can still get the job done. After being acquired by the Cardinals before Week 7, Ertz finished the year averaging 9.6 points per game. That was good for fourth overall among tight ends to finish the season.
Besides his down year in 2020, Ertz has hung around the top-5 averaging over 10 points per game since 2016. Signing back with the Cardinals was great for his fantasy football upside.
His price is around a late 2nd, which has risen since he re-signed. Before he re-signed he could have been had for a a third and fourth rounder. With the new price I’d rather go and take the chance on Engram or Njoku.
21. Gerald Everett (Las Angeles Chargers) 63-48-478-4
After signing with the Seahawks last offseason, many fantasy football managers were very excited. However, Everett disappointed with only averaging 6.5 fantasy points per game and finishing as the TE20.
He never got the volume to ever be a consistent contributor. Only twice did he ever get more than 5 targets in a game. Surprisingly though, despite only having 63 targets, he was third on the team. The other disappointing stat; he only had seven red zone targets on the year.
Landing with the Chargers on a two year deal is great for Everett. This landing spot makes him a potential top-12 option. Jared Cook, the statue, finished as the TE15 last year. This offense will be able to support multiple targets, but without injuries Everett will be at best 4th in the pecking order.
Everett is a very athletic tight end so he is worth a stash. He will be 28 when the season begins, so he is no spring chicken, but is young enough to still invest in fantasy football dynasty leagues. I wanted to move him up more, but at best I’d move him ahead of Thomas and Ertz. However, I think their target share is more dependable because we’ve already seen it.
20. Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals)
McBride was the consensus number one TE in this year’s rookie class. The Cardinals are a good landing spot long term, but it will be two to three years before we see anything worthwhile out of him as he learns behind Zach Ertz.
He put up over 1,100 receiving yards on 90 receptions his SR year with Colorado State. With that production he took home the John Mackey award for the Nations Best TE. I wouldn’t reach for him in rookie drafts, a late second round pick if he can sit on your taxi for two years.
Alright, everyone is allowed a mulligan right? My initial reaction was to have McBride down at 29. I maybe let my redraft brain kick in a bit too much. After some reflection, I moved him up to this tier. His draft capital and youth should push him above these older vets in dynasty.
I am still low on him compared to DynastyPros and KTC who have him up at TE14. I just can’t get too excited yet about a guy who will sit behind or share the role for a few years. Maybe the Hopkins suspension pushes him into the lineup sooner.
19. Brevin Jordan (Houston Texans) 28-20-178-3
He didn’t see the field much this year, but in Week 8 he finished as a top-3 tight end with 3 catches, 41 yards and his first TD.
He is the only tight end under contract next year for the Texans. For a team starving for pass-catchers, Jordan could find himself a favorite target of whoever is playing QB next year. He turned his six red zone targets, third on the Texans this year, into 3 TDs
Watch for him to use his athleticism to beat linebackers, and his size to mismatch against safeties. Screens and swing passes are areas he excelled with in college.
Do yourself a favour and go grab him now; a late 3rd to get a deal done. He very well could be second on this team in targets next year and has already shown his ability to find the end zone. The only thing keeping him lower on this list is the offense he is tied to.
Tier 3 – TD or Bust Group
With the exception of Fant and Engram, who have other question marks, this group will rely on TDs for production. I believe any one of these guys could slip into the top-10 on any given year, but each week’s production will depend on whether they score a TD. If I have TEs in this range I’d like to have more than one so I can play matchups
18. Hunter Henry (New England Patriots) 76-56-630-9
The Patriots made a big splash last offseason paying both Jonnu Smith (4 years) and then Hunter Henry (3 years). Henry was clearly the better option this past year, as he was second on the team in targets and third in receiving yards. Much like Dawson Knox, most of Henry’s fantasy football success came in the red zone. He led the Patriots in red zone targets with 18, which was 26.09% of their targets. Henry converted on half of those attempts; leading the Patriots in receiving TDs with 9.
There are a few question marks surrounding Henry. If the touchdowns regress, will there be enough receptions and yardage to make him a consistent fantasy football option? Is there enough targets to go around if Jonnu Smith becomes more involved? What happens if they actually address the WR room? All these questions surrounding Henry have kept his value low.
He is a good buy right now, as he can be had for a late second or a third and fourth round pick. Although I do have my concerns, we have seen the tight end position continually produce in New England, even when they had multiple options. Look for him to continue to put up consistent top twelve numbers and provide you a safe floor.
17. Albert Okwuegbunam (Denver Broncos) 40-33-330-2
Albert O is a big, strong, fast tight end. He also has a real QB throwing him the ball after the Broncos made a move for Russell Wilson. However, this still doesn’t change the fact that there are just too many mouths to feed in the Broncos offense to get too excited. Do I think he could climb this list, yes, but right now I can’t put him any higher.
Russell Wilson doesn’t exactly have a great history of targeting his tight ends. He made Will Dissley fantasy relevant for a few weeks back in 2019. With Okuegbunam size (6’6) and speed (4.49 40 time) he can be a red zone nightmare! His value skyrocketed after Fant was traded. If it reaches where Fant was, I’d sell out. There’s just too many mouths to feed.
16. Evan Engram (Jacksonville Jaguars) 73-46-408-3
I am excited for the change of scenery. After a great rookie season where he averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game, it has been injuries and overall poor team play that has brought his value down. He only suited up for 17 games between 2018-2019 seasons. In both those years he averaged 9.4 and 10.9 points per game when healthy. Showing us that he is capable of a whole lot more than what he has produced the last two years.
Although he has been healthy the past two seasons, he’s played in a mess of an offense! Scoring chances have been scarce and the playcalling has been iffy. He led the Giants in targets with 109 in 2020, but only produced 1 TD after tying for the team lead in red zone targets with 14. This past year the team only looked his way in the red zone 6 times, and he was able to capitalize twice.
The talent is there. I believe with the Jags he has a chance to be heavily targeted. The Jaguars brought in Christian Kirk and Zay Jones at the WR position, and although they paid them good money, they are not target monsters. Doug Pederson has a history of using the tight end; Ertz had four top six finishes in fantasy football in his five full years with Pederson.
His price is on the rise since he signed; currently around an early third. Whereas before the signing he could have been had for a late 3rd. He will only be turning 28 as the season starts. I might be by myself on this, but I believe Engram can still be a consistent fantasy football tight end moving forward.
15. Noah Fant (Seattle Seahawks) 90-68-670-4
I hope you sold Fant earlier this offseason when there was hope of a QB coming to town. Although Russell Wilson was traded to the Broncos, Fant went the other way, which resulted in his fantasy football stock plummeting.
Fant has been second on his team in targets the last three seasons. He has also led the team in red zone targets the past two seasons. The argument can be made that he has played with some terrible QBs. The bottom line is he’s had chances and hasn’t produced much for fantasy yet. 7.8 and 7.9 points per game the last two seasons is not what most dynasty drafters had in mind with Fant.
In the games that Jerry Jeudy was not in the lineup, Fant averaged 6.8 targets. When Jeudy played, Fant’s targets went down to 4.2 per game. That is a big difference! Now he is going to a team with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett eating up targets.
I thought with a QB upgrade Fant could move up a tier, but it’s hard to get excited with the uncertainty around who the Seahawks QB will be. Do they trade up and get a QB from the draft? They can’t honestly be okay tanking a year with Drew Lock?
Fant will not turn 25 until part way through the year, so he has plenty of time to still “breakout”. I believe the talent is there, but there are just too many mouths to feed. And that’s without adding in the uncertainty at the QB position. If you have him, I guess you hold if you can and hope the Seahawks bring in a capable QB. His age helps him hold his spot inside the top-20 for now. He’s been average with poor QB play, so if there is a major dip in his value I’d consider buying.
The Seahawks picked up his fifth year option, meaning it will be two years before he hits the free agent market. They also signed back Will Dissly, he will get his snaps as well.
14. Mike Gesicki (Miami Dolphins) 112-73-780-2
The only thing that kept Gesicki from finishing higher on the year was his lack of touchdowns. On 15 red zone targets, which was second on the team, he was only able to bring in 2 TDs on the season. This was down from last year when he converted on 5 of his 19 red zone targets, leading the team. His targets per game have risen each year, jumping up by a full target a game this year to 6.6.
This past year he averaged 7.6 fantasy points per game, which was down from 8.9 in 2020. Not something we want to see from a tight end who was second on his team in targets. His 112 targets were second on the team by a lot; but injuries kept Will Fuller out most of the year and sidelined Parker for seven.
With the trade for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle going into his second year, I would expect Gesicki’s targets to come way down. There is some excitement surrounding the Dolphins with Mike McDaniel. The former 49ers offensive coordinator is coming into town as the new head coach, but there might be too many mouths to feed.
If I can get an early to mid second for him I’d be willing to move on. I’d also flip him for cheaper options like Evan Engram; or dare I say David Njoku plus.
13. Dawson Knox (Buffalo Bills) 71-49-587-9
Knox averaged just under 10 fantasy points per game at 9.3. He hurt fantasy football managers when it mattered the most – during the fantasy playoffs. With only 13.9 points total over the three weeks he let you down big time. Can Knox build on this season or was this a fluky TD dependent season?
There are a number of indicators working in Knox’s favor as a potential, consistent fantasy producer. Knox has become more involved in the offense each year, with his average targets per game increasing. Not only is his target share on the rise, his red zone targets are as well. He jumped from 9% of the team’s red zone targets in his first two years to being second on the team this past year with 18.03%.
The Bills traded up to select Knox in the third round of the 2019 draft. They are an offense with a stud QB with no signs of slowing down anytime soon. Knox’s targets won’t likely go up with the signing of Crowder and Gabe Davis emerging towards the end of the year; but he was productive this past year.
Is there a chance his touchdown production decreases, yes. Is there a chance he leaves as a free agent after his contract is up next season, maybe. I think the rewards outweigh the risks of selling out now. Tight end’s are so hard to find and Knox might be one of the next upcoming ones you will want to have a piece of. The O.J. Howard signing is a bit of a nuisance, but the chemistry between Know and Allen is already there.
12. Irv Smith Jr. (Minnesota Vikings) 0-0-0-0
Anyone else excited to see Smith Jr. finally get a chance to shine? He has either shared time with Kyle Rudolph or been injured. I want to believe that Smith Jr. can put up better numbers than Tyler Conklin did this year. Smith suffered a meniscus injury that required surgery before the season began. Conklin filled in well for the injured Irv. Smith Jr.. He finished the year with 61 receptions, nearly 600 yards and 3 TDs.
However, we can be encouraged that Conklin was second on the team in red zone targets this year. And in 2020, Smith only had two less red zone targets than second place Adam Thielen. That year Smith also scored five TDs. If Conklin’s season is any indication of the target share that Smith could see next year, I’d be buying at his price. Smith is currently priced between a late 2nd and early 3rd.
If Irv Smith can come back healthy and lock into the same target share – hopefully better – he will easily be a top-12 fantasy football tight end next year and years to come. Smith is athletic enough to get down the field and make plays if he is given a larger role. I believe he is a great buy at his current price of a late second round rookie pick.
11. Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers) 79-60-497-7
A very productive rookie season from Pat Freiermuth. He was second on the team in red zone targets with 18 and was able to turn that into 7 TDs on the year. In a very crowded offense he was able to finish 4th on the team in targets.
One stat that is discouraging is he only averaged 8.3 yards per reception. One big factor in this would be the offense that was created around Ben Roethlisberger’s inability to throw downfield. However, Freiermuth also isn’t an athletic freak like Kyle Pitts, he is more of a traditional tight end.
This means two things, he is going to be blocking more than we want, 47% of plays this past year. Also, he doesn’t have the break away speed – running 4.77 40-yard dash – to get away from defenders. Therefore a lot of his plays will result in a catch and tackle; we just hope that’s more often in the end zone! He has sticky hands, catching 76% of his targets!
There is a lot of excitement surrounding Freiermuth and his value shows. Some sites have him as the bridge between the consensus top-6 and the rest, which puts him above Goedert. That is a mistake! He will never be more than the 3rd or 4th target on his team, and will rely on TDs to produce. We don’t know who the QB will be for the Steelers, his value isn’t high enough to sell, but if someone shows interest, I wouldn’t hesitate.
Next article I finish off the list and give you my last two tiers. Yes, there might be two names that surprise you, but find out why I have them there when it is released!
Sheldon Hand
Sheldon Hand is an elementary school teacher. He started writing in 2019, and started working with The League Winners in 2021. He has been playing fantasy football for fifteen years, got into dynasty seven years ago and have become a bit obsessed.