Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous passing game fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles by punting the position is the real question.
In other words, What do we do with this position that is so vital to fantasy football success, yet so volatile?
It might be playwright William Shakespeare who put it best:
To sleep, perchance to dream—ay, there’s the rub:
For in that sleep of predictive outcomes for sleeper TEs, what dreams may come.
Prince Hamlet’s soliloquy ponders the very same question that we fantasy managers do: should we go all in on an elite TE or load up elsewhere and take a few shots on a later-round sleeper later on? The decision is truly life or death for fantasy football managers, as it has the potential – more than most other strategic draft-day decisions – to kill your prospects for the 2021 season.
The Fantasy Football Conundrum
Now, we’re not here to argue who the top tight end talents are. Consensus is pretty spot on that Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and George Kittle will all have phenomenal seasons, barring injury. And some, including me, would at least include Kyle Pitts in the conversation when deciding whether or not to select an early TE.
But, if I don’t land any of these guys, I’m going to punt hard on the position. For me, this means taking a tight end in the double digit rounds – and probably taking two of them.
But there is risk inherent in trying to hit on a sleeper at the position. That risk is allocating a second roster spot to a TE who could take a few weeks to display his true value, thereby costing you depth at running back and wide receiver, which we all know is essential for championship contention.
Part of the reason for the sea-change in philosophy from a bygone era of TE punters to early-TE drafters is that the position has become all but unpredictable. As we have seen time and time again, volume is a tricky thing to forecast for tight ends as their usage is predicated on fragile game plans and fickle gamescripts. To put it plainly, most tight ends in the league don’t see enough looks in the passing game to consistently produce usable fantasy weeks.
So, it truly becomes an early-or-not-at-all dichotomy. It’s black or white. You either get a top guy or rummage through the leftovers late.
A Tale of Two Tight Ends
If I’m grabbing two TEs at the back end of the draft this season, you better believe I’m looking to snag the value that currently exists within New England’s new and uncertain tight end situation.
But is it to be Jonnu Smith or Hunter Henry who gets the most looks in 2021? Now that is a question.
The smart money so far is on Smith, an athletic freak and stand-out performer in his short time in the league. Though the production hasn’t quite been there due to low usage rates and minor injuries, the potential is clear to many, including Bill Belichick.
The Patriot’s head coach openly praised Smith last season, something he rarely does, claiming “(He’s) great after the catch, probably the best in the league. I mean, I can’t imagine anyone better than him after the catch.”
To me, that sounds like a coach who is interested in building an offense around the first piece the Patriots secured during free agency this offseason. With a four-year, $50 million contract, the money seems to agree with the narrative while Smith’s eight TDs from a year ago further fuel the discussion of his potential in his new offense.
But one wrench in this potential plot is former Los Angeles Charger Hunter Henry. Henry earned his own hefty contract from New England days after the Smith signing. He’s been incredibly productive over his short career, settling in around 50-60 receptions per year and having secured eight TDs of his own back in 2016 working alongside future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates. Henry has proven he can share the spotlight and star on his own in a featured role at the tight end position.
Who will the Patriots look to the most?
I’m willing to bet that the answer is both of them.
Jonnu Smith profiles as a much better route runner and receiving threat as he has proven to be a tremendously athletic big-body when put out in space. He’s the clear move tight end in McDaniels’ scheme, who can lineup all over the field. Additionally, he can work at all levels, making a living on screens and underneath routes to utilize his YAC ability while running down the seams every so often to challenge safeties deep.
Henry, on the other hand, is the in-line blocker. While Smith should focus on route concepts and formation variability, Henry is likely to integrate with the offensive line on blocking schemes while also becoming a nice checkdown weapon and underneath option for quarterbacks Cam Newton and heir-apparent Mac Jones.
If we integrate these players into a former McDaniels scheme, Henry could play the role of Rob Gronkowski while Smith will play Aaron Hernandez. When both Gronk and Hernandez were relatively healthy in 2011, they finished 1st and 3rd at the position in fantasy football scoring. While this version of Gronk/Hernandez lacks the GOAT QB Tom Brady throwing them the ball, and the supreme talent those players had, there’s still a chance that both can return Top-10 numbers in 2021.
Further, considering the new faces atop the Patriots WR depth chart and the largely unproven returning wideouts, it’s easy to envision Smith and Henry becoming the offense’s top two targets. To be honest, this is probably the smartest move for the team and the best way for them to move the chains when they’re not running the football. Plus the run-heavy, two tight end formations can make any defense susceptible to the play-action passing game, creating open looks for pass catchers and large windows for Newton or Jones to complete passes and gain confidence.
With the upside they hold at a volatile position, I’m willing to die on the New England TE hill and select either Smith or Henry if they fall to me late in drafts. Plus, when I grab Kelce or Waller early, I’ve been able to secure Henry late as an excellent insurance option that can support the loss of my top-tier guy if he goes down with injury.
If I have a choice, I prefer the upside that Smith brings to my team. He can easily become the top option in the passing game and garner 100+ targets. Plus, with the creativity McDaniels brings to his offensive schemes, the Pats will find a way for Jonnu to touch the ball often, each and every game.
But don’t sleep on Henry, either. He’s sure to be a top red zone passing game option and could see a ton of targets in his own right. And, due to his blocking ability, he’s guaranteed to be on the field a lot – which is all we really want in a tight end flier.
As the Bard himself admits:
There are more things in Heaven and Earth […] than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Whether or not your philosophy is to grab a sure thing at the top of drafts or wait until the last few rounds, grab one of the Patriot tight ends regardless. You’ll reap the benefits of the value dip due to uncertainty, and you’ll also be more likely to stay alive deep into your fantasy football playoffs.
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Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.