To start the offseason I was high on Chase Edmonds. He had a fairly productive 2020 for a pass-catching back in a committee. When Kenyan Drake signed with the Raiders I started to move Edmonds up my fantasy football rankings.
About a month into free agency, the Cardinals signed James Conner. Conner received a one-year, $1.75M fully guaranteed contract. This contract is not huge money by any means, but it is enough to assume that he will be involved. Even then, I was not out on Edmonds. Conner and Edmonds produce in different ways, so I think they can offer value for your fantasy football rosters.
Positives in 2020
Even though Edmonds was listed as the starter a couple times in 2020, he was able to have a top-30 finish in most fantasy football scoring formats. This was largely due to his efficient running style, explosive plays, and involvement in the passing game.
In 2020, Edmonds had a career high in attempts and rushing yards. With the increase in touches, Edmonds was able to be very efficient, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. This ranked 6th among qualified running backs. Not only is he efficient, but he has explosive ability. Last season just over 5% of his rushing attempts were over 15 yards, which was 15th in the league. If he can maintain that rate with an increased workload, managers with Edmonds will be happy.
Most of Edmonds’ value comes in the passing game. in 2020, Edmonds more than doubled his previous season high for targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns; all while having his 2nd-highest catch rate of his career. All but one of his five touchdowns came in the passing game.
Negatives in 2020
Edmonds only had three rushing attempts within the 10 yard line, and one rush within the five yard line. He was not able to convert any of these carries into touchdowns. These are the most valuable carries on the field and Edmonds is not getting them, capping his fantasy value. He can get touchdowns on breakaway plays, but they are much harder to predict than red zone touchdowns.
Chase Edmonds has 217 career carries in the NFL.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) August 17, 2021
Of those 217, only one came inside the opponent's 6 yard line.
On the other hand, James Conner had 10 attempts from within the five yard line and converted half of them into touchdowns. In addition to James Conner’s red zone usage, the Cardinals will rely on Kyler Murray in the red zone. He was able to score six times on 14 rushes from inside the 10 yard line last season.
2021 Expectations
Chase Edmonds should be the primary back for the Cardinals between the 20’s. With an increase in attempts, there is greater opportunity for him to have breakaway plays. I do expect an increase in this for the 2021 season. But with Conner and Murray in the picture, Edmond’s red zone usage could be just as low as previous years. The lack of predictable touchdowns is a concern for me.
If you play in PPR or Half-PPR leagues, Edmonds’ usage in the passing game is a plus. James Conner has had seasons where he’s been reliable in the passing game, but Edmonds should get the majority of that work. If you do not play in PPR or Half-PPR leagues you need to make sure to lower Edmonds down your rankings slightly.
One concern in the passing game for Edmonds is the involvement of rookie Rondale Moore. Moore’s usage so far this preseason has been electric. But with a low aDOT, some of those passes that would have gone to Edmonds, are likely to go to Moore.
Fantasy Football Draft Investment
Overall, I am excited about Chase Edmonds fantasy football outlook for 2021. Unfortunately, I am finding it very difficult to draft him at his current ADP. According to Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and their ADP, Edmonds is the RB27 and the 62nd overall player in Half-PPR leagues. This is one of the few times that the ranking and ADP match up perfectly.
If you look into the numbers a little more, teams drafting from the 11th or 12th spot will typically get the opportunity to draft Edmonds in the 6th round. In the majority of leagues, if you want to draft Edmonds you will have to use a 5th round pick. This is too big of an investment for me considering his lack of expected red zone usage.
If Edmonds falls to the 6th or 7th round he is worth the investment. But don’t reach for Edmonds in your fantasy football drafts.
