A pitfall to many fantasy football aspirations, general consensus can cause more harm than good.
Have your fantasy football leaguemates made fun of you for being high on a player they didn’t like? Did you pick a player too early because consensus rankings told you that he’d be elite? Have you lowered your ranking on a player that turned out to be elite becuase everyone told you he’d be bad?
Everyone says to stick to your process until it leads to results that go against their own. Time and time again, consensus tends to be a charade used by hindsight heroes; and more often than not, it’s wrong.
Now that’s not to say that it’s always wrong. Some times a player can be too good to be overlooked. Andrew Luck, Kyler Murray, Ezekiel Elliot, and DK Metcalf are some of the hype machines to pan out in recent memory. Those few moments of being correct don’t negate how often consensus can be wrong, however.
The easiest example is the most recent, and that’s of the 2020 draft class. In rookie, position, and overall rankings you’ll see plenty of big swings on players that turned out to be a strikeout. An immediate example is of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Since Patrick Mahomes has taken over as the starting quarterback of the Chiefs, the team hasn’t had a Top-10 RB in fantasy football. Even Kareem Hunt (who’s leaps and bounds better than CEH) only managed to finish as the RB11 in PPR formats a year after his breakout rookie campaign. With Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, there was never going to be a reason why CEH would instantly become the most dominating factor. Yet everywhere you went you were being told otherwise.
Helaire ended up being the consensus #1 overall selection in rookie drafts. ESPN’s Louis Reddick famously took him with the first overall pick in his fantasy football draft. Even the ‘big brains’ at PFF had him ranked fifth overall (and the RB5), ahead of Hill, Kelce, and Mahomes. CEH would finish the season as the RB19 in PPR formats.
From that same draft class, Chase Claypool was collectively passed over on despite landing in a terrific spot for him in Pittsburgh; a place known for being able to support multiple players in fantasy football.
Rotoballer had Claypool as the 27th-best rookie behind players like Antonio Gandy-Golden, Darrynton Evans, and Bryan Edwards. PFF had him outside of their Top-200 overall rankings as the WR85. He finished as a WR2 (24th in PPR and 16th in standard formats) with over 100 targets; and his usage is only expected to grow going forward.
This is only covering the rookies, too. When looking at overall consensus, the misses become much more lopsided (as do the rookies themselves as shown here by The Cut FFB’s Christian Williams). You may think this is an isolated incident. No way the vast majority – including the experts – could be wrong so often. But looking at previous years shows that the consensus is hardly correct.
2019 had players like N’Keal Harry, Hakeem Butler, Miles Boykin, and Kelvin Harmon ahead of Terry McLaurin and Diontae Johnson; while Daniel Jones took a back seat to Will Grier, Ryan Finley, and Jarrett Stidham. 2018 saw equally egregious rankings for incoming rookies; as multiple sites had Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, and Royce Freeman as consensus Top-7 overall rookies.
The point I’m getting at is that consensus can be wrong, and is so, often. No one expected Drew Brees to become a Top-5 fantasy football quarterback for a majority of his career when he was still with the Chargers and anyone who says they did is lying.
This time of the year it’s popular for slander to take place against those who have differing opinions on consensus players. Saying that Justin Fields is your QB1 could get you ridiculed in many places; when the fact is that there’s a decent possibility it could end up happening. Remember, many thought that Sam Darnold was the QB1 in the 2018 class. This year, he just finished putting up one of the worst seasons by a quarterback in recent memory.
Everyone is wrong at some point. It’s okay if your views aren’t completely lined up with the consensus thought; and if they do I’d ask for you to look over your information again. As long as your process is thoroughly thought out, you don’t owe anyone an explanation or have to conform to beliefs that don’t fit your own. Stay true to yourself, and don’t fall for the consensus charade.
