The allure of obtaining the breakout WR2 in the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City offense is tempting for fantasy football players. However, is that allure only a myth?
Mecole Hardman has been a consistent candidate for the Kansas City WR2 breakout narrative. Every preseason, it seems Mecole Hardman is on the sleeper list. This year he loses competition as Sammy Watkins joined the Baltimore Ravens.
Hardman did see an increased role in terms of targets from 2019 to 2020, but the production was nearly identical. In 2020 Hardman saw 62 targets, turning them into 41 receptions, 560 yards, and four TDs. In 2019, Hardman attracted 41 targets and grabbed 26 catches for 538 yards and six TDs.
Target Distribution
Kansas City Chiefs quarterbacks attempted 558 passes in 2019, and 611 passes in 2020. In 2020, 45% of those targets went to the combination of Trevis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, while in 2019 that percentage sat at 40%. The remaining targets are divided amongst all other pass-catching options including running backs, a plethora of wide receivers, etc.
In 2019, Sammy Watkins had 90 targets; but any fantasy football player with Watkins that year will confirm he was unusable for most weeks (outside of Week 1). Watkins has been the only wide receiver not named Tyreek Hill to have more than 65 targets in the past two years. The case could be made that Kelce is actually the WR1 on the team, and Hill the WR2. In 2020, the only two skill offensive players to play more than 80% of snaps were Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
If you look one more year prior in 2018, Kelce (150 targets) and Hill (135 targets) had 51% of the 564 targets. So the trend is strong historically.
Clyde-Edwards Helaire (CEH) Impact
Last year, the Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire 32nd overall. CEH had a consistent role in the offense leading to an RB22 finish (Half-PPR) in 13 games. What is remarkable is that he finished that high mainly on his yardage output; as he only had five total touchdowns (four rushing) in 2020.
Positive touchdown progression is ensured for CEH barring injury. The Chiefs have upgraded their offensive line hopefully allowing for better short-yardage performance. In 2020, the combination of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and CEH scored 62% of all the Chiefs’ touchdowns. Since CEH is likely to score more in 2021. For a Chiefs WR2 to have any fantasy football relevance, Kelce or Hill would have to lose touchdowns. This is an unlikely scenario as both of them see an 80% snap rate.
2021 Kansas City Chief WR2 Fantasy Football Outlook
So in summary, 62% of touchdowns and ~55% of the targets go to either Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, or the running backs. That leaves the remaining touchdowns and targets for everyone else in that Kansas City offense. Based on historical data and trends, the likely ceiling for the WR2 in Kansas is 2019 Sammy Watkins; when Watkins drew 90 targets but the touchdowns will be capped in the single digits.
Mecole Hardman could potentially put it all together and separate himself as the clear WR2 from Demarcus Robinson and Bryon Pringle. That scenario would likely have Hardman finish 2021 with somewhere between 65 to 90 targets, turning them into 45-65 receptions, 550-800 yards, and 3-5 touchdowns.
According to 4for4, Mecole Hardman’s ADP sits at 121. Why not take a chance at Michael Pittman (ADP 117) who could lead the Colts in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns? Or Marquez Callaway (ADP 137) who could lead the Saints wide receivers until Michael Thomas is back in the lineup. Drafting the Kansas City WR2 gets you a very low WR3 with many dud-performing weeks. Draft players with more upside who have a clear path to WR2 finish instead.
