It’s that time of the year again! Fantasy football leagues are getting together for their annual summer draft. Around this time, your casual player will start getting their notes together on who and who not to draft – but for the rest of us fantasy football nerds, we never stopped our research.
Our lists of sleepers, busts, breakouts and must-haves are ever changing, but we all have those few guys that stand out to us among the freaks of nature.
The one position fantasy football managers are always trying to find a diamond in the rough in, is tight end. We all know the big three: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller. After those guys, who is really consistent enough to earn a spot in your starting lineup week in and week out?
There are not many options, but some names come to mind:
- Mark Andrews is the Ravens best pass-catcher (sorry Hollywood) and a favorite target for Lamar Jackson.
- Logan Thomas had the third-most targets among tight ends last year and should get better quarterback play this season
- Robert Tonyan was a touchdown machine, and given rave reviews thus far from head coach Matt LaFleur
- T.J. Hockenson excelled in an injury-ridden offense and won’t have many targets for competition
- Mike Gesicki had the most looks in the red zone for his team in 2020 and should see easier coverages.
What do all these players have in common? Their teams did not have a No. 2 wide receiver. Let’s take a look at some changes coming to these teams in the next season.
Baltimore Ravens
First, we have the Baltimore Ravens. They selected Rashod Bateman out of Minnesota in the first round of the NFL Draft to add to their receiving group. They also signed Sammy Watkins to a one-year deal. The team has suggested they want to pass the football more, but Mark Andrews may still be more touchdown-reliant in this newly founded offense.
Washington Football Team
The Washington Football Team had a very weird season; A Top-5 defense and a 7-9 record going into the playoffs. To make it an even more weird scenario, former college quarterback Logan Thomas converted to tight end and had an 18% target share right off the bat.
With Curtis Samuel signing a 3 year, $34 million contract and Antonio Gibson expected to take on a bigger workload, we can expect Logan Thomas to take a back seat to some of the action.
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers were very efficient last year. Robert Tonyan especially, catching 52 of 59 targets for 11 touchdowns in 2020. That’s a 21.2% touchdown rate! Negative regression is expected for that high of a touchdown rate, and with the Aaron Rodgers drama going on, no one can predict what will happen in Green Bay.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are another confusing team. They look fantastic on paper, but Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been able to show he can shake his recent struggles. Given the way that Brian Flores runs the team, I’m not sure Tua can keep more than two fantasy football players relevant.
I like Gesicki as a player and a stream candidate at the tight end position, but after adding Jaylen Waddle and signing Will Fuller I do not have Mike Gesicki in my Top-10 tight ends this year.
Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson is the anomaly here. The Lions had Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and D’Andre Swift as key targets in the offense last year. While most battled through injury, Hockenson played a nice role in the offense. Out of the five tight ends mentioned above, Hockenson is the only one I expect to stay; or even take a leap into stardom with being the new number one target on the team.
The Tight End I Want in Fantasy Football
Now, who is my fantasy football sleeper at the tight end position? He is from my favorite team in the Meadowlands. That’s right – Evan Engram!
Let’s start out with the numbers. Engram was fourth overall in targets at the tight end position. The volume is there; but out of his 109 targets, only 84 were deemed catchable. With 63 receptions on the year, this puts his true catch rate at 75% instead of a 57.8% catch rate. Looking back at his rookie year (which we all loved), Engram surprisingly had an even worse catch rate at 55.7%. The reason we all loved him then instead of now all comes down to touchdowns.
In 2020, Evan Engram finished the season with only two touchdowns; with one of them being a rushing touchdown. In his rookie year (2017), Engram scored six times total.
2020 was the worst year in the career of Evan Engram. He had career-lows in: yards per game, yards per target, yards per reception, and receptions per game. With all of this in mind, we tend to forget the years in-between. Engram was injured for a good portion of 2018 and half of 2019. Despite the injuries, he was projected to be a top talent at the position.
The true ‘year that got away’ for Evan Engram was in 2018. Playing only 11 games, Engram had 64 targets with 45 receptions, equaling a 70.3% catch rate. Racking up 577 yards and three touchdowns, Engram was pulling for a great season. His 16 game pace was 93 targets, 65 receptions, 839 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
If that is how the season would have played out, Engram would have been the TE6, above Austin Hooper (who finished as the actual TE6 that year). Not to mention, this was all done on a 16% target share – compared to his 22% target share in 2020.
Now, let’s fast forward to 2019. Odell Bekcham is out of town, Saquon Barkley has a hurt ankle, and it is Daniel Jones’ rookie year. It’s Evan Engram’s time to take the next step towards stardom, right?
Sadly, we never saw it happen, as Engram missed half the season himself due to a foot injury. For what seemed to be his best analytical season, Engram finished eight games with 68 targets, 44 receptions, 467 yards, and 3 touchdowns. He also had a career low drop rate at 4.4%, compared to his career-high in 2020 (10.1%).
Engram was lined up as the number one target on an offense that just couldn’t catch any breaks. His 16 game pace in 2019 comes out to 136 targets, 88 receptions, 934 yards, and 6 touchdowns. With a great season like this, he would have landed at TE4 above Zach Ertz – remember that guy?
Evan Engram – The 2021 Bounce-back?
2020 was a mess of a season for the Giants’ offense; a sophomore slump for Daniel Jones alongside another slew of injuries to key players.
When targeting Evan Engram, Daniel Jones had a atrocious quarterback rating of 59.2. I don’t believe last year’s poor season was all the fault of Engram. The drops are definitely a cause for concern, but if Engram can stay on the field he is a threat to any defensive personnel – though his fantasy football ADP in drafts right now says otherwise.
Engram’s current ADP on Sleeper’s ADP list that came out on June 14th is pick 120.7, or round 10. In a recent 12-team PPR mock draft I did on the same website, Engram actually went at 11.11 as the TE17.
Notable players above Evan Engram in ADP right now include Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews, Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry, Irv Smith, Zach Ertz, Robert Tonyan, Logan Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, and Mike Gesicki.
I’ve already talked about a handful of these players, but most of them can be lumped into a tier of shoulder shrugs and blank faces when being drafted. All of these players have great talent and potential, while a couple are heading towards the end of their career. Let’s run through them all in a short fashion:
- Kyle Pitts – A rookie with no experience. Yes, he could become an all-time player, but we just don’t know yet.
- Mark Andrews – Has been Top-5 before, but multiple pass-catchers cloud his projections going forward.
- Noah Fant – Great raw talent, but has not proven it yet. Has multiple pass-catchers to compete with also and horrible QB play.
- T.J. Hockenson – Has been Top-5 and looks to be the number one target on the Lions.
- Dallas Goedert – A boom or bust fantasy football player who has only scratched the Top-10 once.
- Hunter Henry – Only one Top-10 season. He’s now on a worse team with a better player (Jonnu Smith) in front of him.
- Irv Smith – Has never had the opportunity and the head coach stated his usage will not change.
- Zach Ertz – Fantasy football gold in his prime, but on the back-end of his career and the trade block.
- Robert Tonyan – Product of an super efficient offense and no No. 2 receiver.
- Logan Thomas – Converted position player with the luck of the draw on opportunity.
- Rob Gronkowski – Not the same athlete from his Patriots days, touchdown dependent, at the end of his career.
- Mike Gesicki – Had a boom in red zone targets, multiple pass catchers added
The tight end position really puts it into perspective that outside the Top-3 players, there is not much consistency. Engram is one of the few guys who have posted a Top-5 season and continues to get the volume needed for a high level of play and excellent fantasy football numbers.
I have Engram getting an 18% target share in 2021. Kenny Golladay is in town and Saquon is back, but the next best player on the team is Evan Engram. And despite his down-2020, it’s hard to overlook a guy as talented as him. If he is on the field, he will be a target machine.
2021 Projections: 108 targets, 66 receptions, 816 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
As a reminder, there is an extra game this season, so look for a natural uptick in statistics. I see positive regression in Evan Engram’s future. As the TE7 in my rankings with potential to be a Top-5 player at his position, Engram is a steal in the double digit rounds of your fantasy football drafts this year.
