Intro
Fantasy football can be as much who you don’t draft, as who you draft. For instance, I drafted a lot of Michael Thomas last year. I had him in all three of my redraft leagues and three out of seven dynasty leagues. It goes without saying, I loved me some Michael Thomas. Big Mistake. Like Thomas last year, this article will show three players to avoid in the first round in redraft this year.
My Michael Thomas Mistake
The thought process was sound. Thomas was a guy coming off of a historical 2019, he was only 27 years old. Although the Drew Brees retirement party was clearly underway, Thomas’s floor seemed solid. It turns out I was wrong. I drafted Thomas at his ceiling. I both paid the price (redraft) and I am paying the price (dynasty).
Although I fully expect Michael Thomas to be decent after he recovers from his ankle surgery, he surely will not be in contention for overall WR1 any time soon, if ever again. This is a warning friends, don’t draft players at their ceiling. In other words, try not to chase history.
More often than not, when players have historic years, the fall is coming. So often fantasy football managers draft based on what was done in previous years. We are often blinded by what players will do in upcoming years. General Managers of all sports teams know: don’t pay for the past, pay for what players will do in the future.
Of course, GMs get it wrong all the time as well. Here are three players that are being drafted in the first round that will surely spoil your fantasy football championship dreams. I am not saying these are bad players. However, these are players whose first-round capital is too expensive for me.
Derrick Henry (ADP 3, RB3)
Most fantasy football drafts have Derrick Henry going in the top three. It’s usually: CMC, Dalvin Cook, Henry. He is going before Alvin Kamara, Travis Kelce, and Ezekiel Elliott. Henry very well may be an alien and smash the record books, but I don’t see it.
Henry was RB3 last year and he had over 2,000 yards rushing. With the majority of leagues and formats moving to PPR, Henry has to produce at such a high level to keep up with his ADP that I can not advise drafting him. If Henry were to fall to the end of round 1 or somewhere in round 2, by all means, scoop him up. But with age, over 1,000 NFL carries, and 378 carries in 2020 I advise to let him go and find another player in round 1.
Henry also scored 17 touchdowns, so to justify his ADP he would have to have another 2,000 yards and 17 tuddy season. I don’t see that happening. Henry has never had more than 19 receptions in a year (1.1 a game) so he is a nonfactor in the passing game. There are other players that won’t have to do as much to justify their draft capital and for that reason, Henry is a fade in 2021.
Saquon Barkley(ADP7, RB5)
I understand the fascination. Hell, I was obsessed with Barkley coming out of college. Most of our memories of, “The Quad Father” are of his rookie year when the hype matched the production. He was RB1 overall and looked like a true five-year stud.
But 2018 was a long time ago. The truth is there were cracks showing before Barkley’s devastating ACL tear in 2020. Barkley ended as RB10 in 2019 after missing three games. He had 100 fewer touches in ’19 than he did in ’18, including 39 fewer receptions.
Saquon Barkley is a generational talent. I know that term is thrown around a lot these days, but he is 6’2, 225lbs, and runs a sub 4.4 forty-yard dash. He catches the ball like a natural receiver and has a burst that is unmatched. Sadly, like many before, we may have seen the best of Saquon Barkley. He is pure boom or bust at this point. He could win teams a fantasy football championship or he could sink teams quicker than the iceberg that sunk the Titanic. That’s too much variance. Too much risk in the first round.
The word out of camp is Barkley is coming along nicely, but could still miss the first or second game of the year. I don’t believe Barkley will play all 17 games this season.
A Terrible Offense
Barkley’s offensive line is not good. His quarterback is not good. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants are once again one of the five worst offenses in the league. I like Kenny Golladay, but I don’t see him being a transformational receiver for Daniel Jones the way Stefon Diggs was for Josh Allen. This all hampers Barkley’s fantasy football outlook.
I see Barkley as an RB10-12 given the circumstances around him. If we look at Dalvin Cook, who was the last great talent that had a devastating ACL knee injury in his rookie year, we see he only played in 11 games the following year and was RB30. He then recovered nicely and became a top-three pick the last two years.
Barkley is now 24 years old and in his fourth season, may struggle with minor injuries in 2021 as his knee and his confidence heals. His variance is too high and I am finding other players around where he is drafted like Zeke, Nick Chubb, and Aaron Jones that have higher floors, and perhaps higher a ceiling. In many drafts, I pass on Barkley, get Zeke, and still end up with Aaron Jones. That is the path. Take a pass on Barkley this year and let someone else deal with the headache.
Patrick Mahomes (ADP12, QB1)
In fantasy football Super Flex (SF) leagues, Mahomes is the first pick. In dynasty leagues, Mahomes can still be your guy because you are getting a generational talent for the next 10-15 years. In redraft leagues however, I am out. Mahomes basically has to be QB1 to match his ADP. What guarantees do you absolutely know of in life? Very few.
I will always caution fantasy football players to wait on QB’s in 1QB leagues. Getting Mahomes is tempting because he can do things like no other. But drafting Mahomes in the first round will destroy your opportunity cost and leave you with a great player that has trouble anchoring your fantasy football team.
Hold Your Breath
I know it is difficult, but let Mahomes go to another team. You can still wait to draft a QB like Ryan Tannenhill in the 7th round (ADP94) while you load up at RB, WR, and TE.
Yes, Mahomes can possibly throw for another 5,000 and 50 touchdowns. He runs just enough to pick up 250 yards rushing (25 points) and another 2-3 touchdowns on the ground. But we all drafted Mahomes at his ceiling last year and he was QB4.
That’s still outstanding, and he had many weeks where he was the top QB. But to take him in the first round, or even the second round, is overpaying. That can cost you a premium RB, or Travis Kelce, who is still he best cheat code in fantasy football. Wait on your QB in 1QB leagues. Draft RB’s before they dry up, try to land a top three TE, and then build your wide receiver core.
I love Mahomes, and he’s one of my all-time favorite players already. But even if he does deliver, there are still other QB’s that will be great for your team. A Kelce and Tannenhill pairing is better than Mahomes and Fant in my world. So be like Elsa and let him go, your fantasy football team will thank you.
