Fantasy Football: Three QB Camp Battles Primed to Make or Break Your Team

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions. Don’t worry. We’ve all been there. Watch one more episode on Netflix or call it a night. Finally, get that six-pack you’ve been talking about for months or that six-pack in the fridge you’ve been thirsting on for hours; Or DJ Moore or Robby Anderson.

These “little” choices can tie you in knots; and in the fantasy football world, these little choices make all the difference. NFL training camps are right around the corner, which means the choices these teams make on the depth chart are going to impact your fantasy football season.

Don’t sweat it; We’ve got you covered. Considering the implications these decisions will have on skill players across the fantasy landscape, here are three quarterback camp battles primed to make or break your fantasy football team.

 

1. Cam Newton v. Mac Jones

These two quarterbacks couldn’t be any more different. On one side, you have the former league MVP, dual-threat, and seasoned veteran in Cam Newton. On the other side, you have the rookie that’s less than mobile but very accurate in Mac Jones (74% completion percentage at Alabama).

Cam Newton

It almost goes without saying, but with Cam Newton at quarterback it severely impacts the volume at wide receiver; which is a shame when you consider the additions the New England Patriots made at WR in Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor. 

Last year in the games in which Cam Newton started, 106 of his 242 completions went to someone other than a WR; A rate of just over 43%. For further comparison, let’s take a look at Cam Newton’s best season in 2015; The season he won the league MVP.

Newton started in all 16 games and completed 296 passes. In those games, 146 of his 296 completions went to someone other than a WR; A rate of just over 49%. Not only that, but 94 of those 296 completions went to a TE (31%).

Mac Jones

With Jones being a rookie, it’s undefined exactly what his target distribution will look like. If I had to place my bet, New England won’t be willing to entertain the thought until long after fantasy draft season is over. It’s likely Jones will have to wait to get his chance, but anything can happen from now until the season starts.

When you consider the investment the Patriots also made in tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, it would seem the Patriots are preemptively looking to play to Newton’s tendencies which don’t bode well for the fantasy football prospects of the New England WRs. 

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2. Drew Lock vs. Teddy Bridgewater

In terms of physical talent, both of these quarterbacks seem to be different. However, I’d argue both quarterbacks are at a career crossroads. In Teddy Bridgewater’s case, he’s never been able to find a steady home since leaving the Minnesota Vikings. Being in Denver, he’s now on his 3rd team in the last four seasons.

Drew Lock in an uncertain territory after the Broncos were rumored to be in the mix to acquire Aaron Rodgers. With the offensive firepower at this team’s disposal, you can’t help but feel the winner of this camp battle will leave fantasy football owners of the Broncos skill players feeling unfulfilled.

Drew Lock

With Drew Lock, it has always been about his efficiency and being able to maximize his arm talent. According to the EPA/CPOE metric, Lock ranked 30th out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 320 snaps in 2020. Last year also saw Lock dip below a 60% completion percentage, just 5.8 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt (AY/A), and a QBR of just 48.8; Certainly uninspiring for a Broncos team looking to supplement their formidable defense. 

Lock’s struggles open the door for Teddy Bridgewater. In contrast, Bridgewater ranked 15th in the same EPA/CPOE parameter, posted a completion percentage of almost 70% (69.1), 7.2 AY/A, a QBR of 64.2.

While it would seem like a no brainer to hope Bridgewater wins this job for fantasy football interests, it should be noted that Lock had higher intended air yards per attempt (IAY/PA) than Bridgewater (8.8 versus 7.1). It’s testament to the rhetoric that Bridgewater would rather play it safe than drive the ball deep into his playmaker’s hands.

In what I believe is truly a case of damned if you do, damned if you don’t: I’d be damned if I’m not hoping for Drew Lock to win this battle, and help the fantasy owners of Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Jerry Jeudy. 

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3. Taysom Hill vs. Jameis Winston

This is probably the case where depending on who starts, you may find a happy medium, and it’s all because of how certain leagues classify Taysom Hill. Not only is Hill a wild card on the field, but in fantasy football leagues as well.

While most leagues designate Hill as a quarterback, some identify him as a wide receiver or tight end. If the latter is true in your league, having both Jameis Winston and Hill could be more than beneficial if Winston is named the starter.

However, if Hill is named the outright starter, then it would be fair to have concerns about how that would impact the Saints’ pass-catchers. Albeit increased from his normal volume, Hill didn’t inspire much confidence in his passing output in the games he started last year.

Taysom Hill

Hill started four games last year in Drew Brees’ absence. In that span, he posted a mere 208.5 passing yards per game (YPG) and 7.3 yards per attempt (YPA). It should also be noted that once Hill was named the starter, Alvin Kamara saw a sharp decline in passes thrown his way. In the games before Drew Brees’ injury, Kamara was averaging 8.8 targets per game and after Brees was injured, just 4.

Jameis Winston

While in contrast, to put it lightly, Winston as a passer has been anything but meager; even with a multitude of turnovers.. However, Winston is a fighter that will take a lot of damage, but will risk it all to inflict some damage of his own.

Hill has had a tremendously small sample size as a full-time starter in comparison to Winston but here are the numbers: From 2015-2019, Winston averaged 274.1 YPG and nearly half a yard more per pass with 7.75 YPA, with Winston posting 319.3 YPG and 8.2YPA in his final season in Tampa. 

Like I said before, if fantasy football leagues (and the Saints for that matter) see Taysom Hill as much more than a quarterback, then look forward to having your cake and eating it too; with a possibility of having Winston as a high risk/high reward passer and Hill as a dynamic flex option. Otherwise, you may see a vastly different Saints passing attack than what we’ve seen over the last few years. 

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