Fantasy Football – Thursday Night Boom and Bust – Week 4
Well, Week 3 did not go how I expected. Fantasy Football, all football really, can be humbling. I live the Tom Brady way. Humble in victory, accountability in defeat. If I switched my boom or bust I would have helped all of you fine people. That’s on me. I felt Robby Anderson would go off. I was wrong. Brandin Cooks should’ve been a bust with rookie QB Davis Mills. That was wrong as well.
Fantasy Football is a humbling game. I am humbled often. What I will promise is that I dive into the data and let the data be my guide. In this case, I went counter to the data. That won’t happen again.
Accountability Time
Every week I will give my take on which players will boom and which players will bust you up for Thursday and Monday Night games. Be sure to follow us for all your player management and to get a breakdown on how you can win your league.
Last Thursday Night I picked Robby Anderson to boom and Brandin Cooks to bust for your fantasy football team. That was a resounding bust. Brandin Cooks proved to be quarterback proof and Anderson proved to be a clear second fiddle to DJ Moore. I thought that narrative would switch last Thursday. I was wrong.
In my reflection, I’ve decided to change up my weekly Thursday Night Boom or Bust a little. Going forward I will give a guide of players to boom and players to bust. I believe this is more useful information. Anyone can say to play CMC, although if I picked him to bust I would have been more useful this past week. Damn injuries. The point is, even if I say CMC is going to bust, likely your fantasy football team doesn’t have other options. So the information becomes useless.
Format Change for the Win!
Rather than pick a flex type of player to boom or bust I will give a breakdown of all playmakers and my thoughts on how they will perform in the game. This will be a better guide. All DFS numbers are based on Draft Kings information, and I will steer your team towards or away from certain players. This should also validate the studs that must be started.
My belief is in life we should always grow. Change is necessary for growth and it’s my strong belief this guide will be much more useful. I can then also help my gambling friends where I believe they should place their money. My articles are meant to help others win, no more, no less. So without further ado, let’s jump into Week 4 and get back into winning your league.
Onward and upward!
Players to Boom
Joe Mixon (DFS – $16,500) 💰 💰 💰
I believe this is Joe Mixon’s true breakout game. I could see the Bengals giving Mixon a lot of run on a short week. Mixon has been good, but not great for fantasy football. I believe he will be a Top-5 RB in Week 4. Fire him up with glee.
Ja’Marr Chase (DFS – $10,200) 💰💰
Chase is on fire. He wants to beat Justin Jefferson’s rookie records. These dudes are competitive. The Jags can be beat everywhere on the field. Chase is held out of the zone but he gets five grabs for 80 plus yards.
Tyler Boyd (DFS – $7,400) 💰 💰
Tyler Boyd leads Bengals receivers in target share at 27%. He is getting volume but unlike Chase, Boyd hasn’t found the end zone much. I say he finds it again on Thursday.
Joe Burrow (DFS – $11,600) 💰 💰 💰
Can’t have three offensive weapons boom and not have the QB thrown in there. I believe it’s Mixon day, but Burrow will still be a solid boom play with around 200 yards and two touchdowns.
Marvin Jones (DFS – $8,600) 💰
Marvin Jones is the steady veteran. Everyone wanted to see Shenault take the next step but Jones is the target leader and the highest fantasy scorer of the Jags trio. Fire up old reliable, and take all the points you can get from the struggling Jaguars offense.
Cincinatti Defense (DFS – $5,600) 💰
The Bengals defense was bad last year. They spent some money to improve their front four and through three games it has paid off. They are 8th in total yards given up. This is a solid defense getting better. Trevor Lawrence leads the league in turnovers. A couple of picks, maybe a fumble, and a defensive tud are in play.
Players to Bust
Trevor Lawrence (DFS – $15,600) 💣
The aforementioned turnover king of the NFL is playing a tough defense on the road. The Jaguars should be passing often. The Jaguar’s offensive line is doing Trevor Lawrence no favors, but he’s not seeing the field, holding the ball to long, and throwing too many picks. He’s a pass for me.
James Robinson (DFS – $14,100) 💣 💣
I love James Robinson. I am a JRob truther. It probably has to do with the fact he’s the only guy from my alma mater (Illinois State) I can cheer for. Coming off his first big game with 134 total yards, six catches, and a touchdown, folks may be excited to fire up JRob. The Bengals 8th ranked rush defense is legit and I think this game goes sideways in a hurry. JRob falls back down to Earth this Thursday night.
Laviska Shenault (DFS – $9,900)💣 💣
Love the talent, hate the usage. Laviska Shenault was an offseason darling of the fantasy football community. He is big, fast, strong, and a monster after the catch. So far this season, he hasn’t made much noise. Shenault has the third-highest target share on the team with only 17.5%. He has yet to reach double-digit fantasy points and his average depth of target (aDOT) is the 4th lowest of all wide receivers at only 4.3. For a guy the coaching staff mentioned they “could build an offense around”, so far the results have been poor.
DJ Chark (DFS – $7,200) 💣
I love DJ Chark. He is a hero of mine for speaking up about mental health issues. He is the complete opposite of Shenault through three games. His aDOT is 9th best in the league at 15.59. Problem is, he is touchdown-dependent; although he is second in target share behind Marvin Jones. I love the talent. I think he will make some other team very happy next year but I don’t see much action for Chark on Thursday evening.
Jax Defense (DFS – $4,500) 💣 💣 💣
They are bad. Not much more to say. They are 4th worst in total yards given up and 5th worst in points scored against. They are on the road against a potent offense that is starting to gel. Just stay away.
That wraps up Thursday’s Boom or Bust! I hope you win some money, win your leagues, party, have a good time. Football is the best. I can’t believe we are entering Week 4 and October is right around the corner. Enjoy it all and best of luck winning your league!
For my gambling friends out there, I like the Bengals with the seven points. Thursday Night games are always tricky, but the Jaguars have a struggling rookie QB on the road, and are playing against a potent offense too. I’m taking the points until something changes.
Final Score: Bengals 27 – Jags 17
