No quarterback has repeated as the fantasy football QB1 in the last decade. Does Russell Wilson have a chance to place as the overall QB1 in 2021? Let’s look at that possibility.
The Case Against Russell Wilson
During the second half of the 2020 season, Russell’s per-game output dropped to 17.86 points a game. Several pundits questioned the playcalling of Brian Schottenheimer, deeming it too predictable. The Seahawks offensive line and Pete Carroll’s commitment to establishing the run were a factor as well. With Pete Carroll’s reaffirmation to committing to the run this offseason, it seems destined Seattle is not willing to Let Russ Cook.
With a healthier Chris Carson, a bolstered offensive line, and the addition of Gerald Everett, it is likely Seahawks implement the Rams zone-blocking scheme. They also hired former Rams passing game coordinator, Shane Waldren.
According to the charts below, the Los Angeles Rams run-rate was higher across all situations than the Seattle Seahawks in 2020. With the renewed emphasis on the run, Wilson will likely see regression in his passing attempts from 558 in 2020.
Russell Wilson also lacks the significant rushing upside that Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson possess. The last time Wilson ran over 600 yards was in 2014. That year he had six rushing touchdowns. So if Russell’s passing attempts decline and he does not run as often as other QBs, Russell Wilson likely will not finish as the top QB in 2021.
The case for Russell Wilson
There is no one as consistent as Wilson, being a top-12 fantasy football quarterback every year since 2012. Russell Wilson himself finished as the overall QB1 in 2017. It is fair to assume Wilson has a good chance to place as the QB1 in 2021.
In 2020 through the first eight weeks of the season, Russell Wilson averaged 30.3 points a game which was leading the league. This was due to the fact that Russell Wilson had two dynamic wide receivers in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, and a defense that was still was horrendous against the pass. Russell and the offensive unit had to carry the team to wins.
The Seahawks added Gabe Jackson and rookie Stone Forsythe to the offensive line to aid in bolstering an underwhelming unit. These changes will allow the Seahawks to return to their explosive self, similar to the first half of the 2020 season. If the Seahawks want to win the NFC West, letting Russ cook is the only way to win.
Another reason for optimism is Chris Carson. Carson was instrumental to the first half success of 2020 for the Seahawks offense before his injury. Even upon his return, Carson never returned to his early-season form. With a full offseason of rehab, Carson will take the pressure off of Russell. Opposing defenses will have to respect the run more. The per-play efficiency should increase for the Seahawks yielding more explosive plays in 2021.
All signs point to Russell Wilson to again return another year within the top-12; however, with increased per-play efficiency, look out for Russell to return to his early 2020 form and challenge for the QB1 spot in fantasy football.
