A Coin Flip
The tight end position is two sides of the same coin. The elite targets Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and rising sophomore Kyle Pitts are debonair picks to solidify the position for your squad. As a result of injury, elite talents George Kittle and Darren Waller have fallen in ADP. After the top five, the water is murky. Notable mid-tier tight ends with high upside, but are inconsistent, include TJ Hockenson and Dalton Schultz. If you pass on the “1%” at the tight end position your search for the best value starts in the latter half of your draft. One player to keep an eye out for is Chicago Bears’ tight end, Cole Kmet.
Top Tier Upside
Cole Kmet is coming into his junior year and seemingly had his worst days behind him. Here is a list of changes that benefit Kmet’s upside as a fantasy player:
- The head coaching change from Matt Nagy to Matt Eberflus.
- Jimmy Graham has not re-signed with the Bears, so Kmet has the position to himself.
- Allen Robinson signed with the Rams, leaving behind 66 targets (151 targets in 2020).
- Justin Fields enters year two with plenty of room to improve.
Kmet hauled in a 17% target share with 93 targets. With the changes put into place, Kmet has an exceptional opportunity to receive over 100 targets in 2022. With this in mind, six tight ends received 100 or more targets in 2021. All six were in the top 10 at the position, and five of them ended in the top six. According to Sleeper ADP, Cole Kmet is being drafted as the TE15. If history holds true to recent performances, Kmet is a smash to break into the top 10 this upcoming season.
Not All Change is Good
Just because a bad team made changes, does not mean they will all be good. There is a world where change will backfire and leave the Bears with empty desires. A coaching change was made, but Matt Eberflus is a former defensive coordinator. Luke Getsy is the new offensive coordinator for the Bears, who is formerly Aaron Rodgers’ quarterback coach. If there is anyone I want to develop my young quarterback, it’s him. Say a prayer in hopes Eberflus leaves all offensive calls to Getsy.
The Bears have big plans for Cole Kmet pic.twitter.com/ci2c76r37J
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) May 9, 2022
Allen Robinson and Jimmy Graham leave behind 89 targets, as well as plenty of red zone opportunities. Graham scored 11 times over the last two years, taking away plenty of end zone work from Kmet. With two primary targets gone, only Kmet and Darnell Mooney remain. Mooney is sure to be double teamed, alongside Kmet who I’m sure will see safety coverage over the top. Defenses can fixate on these two guys and leave Fields to look elsewhere for action. It’s up to Fields and the staff to get the ball to their best players.
Speaking of Justin Fields, he was lousy in his rookie season. The Bears did not put the pieces in place for him to succeed, nonetheless he did not overcome such hardships outside of sporadic flashes. If Fields cannot take a leap in his sophomore year, Kmet’s only hope is to plunge into the end zone for several scores.
“Wide Receiver Two”
Darnell Mooney is the clear-cut primary target in this offense. The Bears did not add substantial depth to the position, having the most mediocre wide receiver signings this off-season, which include:
Cole Kmet w/ Justin Fields for a full game:
22% target share (9 games)
Cole Kmet otherwise last year:
16% target share (8 games)
Like Kmet plenty this season with an improved Fields. He should easily repeat as Chicago’s “WR2” and devour intermediate targets
— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) June 18, 2022
It’s safe to say none of these players will transcend Kmet in the targets category. Another name to mention is third round pick Velus Jones Jr, 25 year old wide receiver out of Tennessee. Jones Jr was the only wide receiver Chicago drafted. Notable wide-out, David Bell, was still available, but it is too early to tell who will be the better player. Over and above all, Cole Kmet is the definitive number two target in this new offense. Tight ends are a young quarterbacks safety blanket, and with a focus on developing young talent the Bears should be getting the ball to Kmet. I’m projecting an increase in target share to about 20%.
Draft with Confidence
Thomas Christopher, the founder of The League Winners, recently discussed his 2022 Tight End Busts. Some names not apart of his list, but you should also be weary of are Albert O. and Irv Smith. They are the TE16 and 17 respectively in ADP and have injury concerns of their own. Be confident in your draft process and do your due diligence. If you don’t get your hands on the famous Travis Kelce, or the new blood Kyle Pitts, take your leave and pick Kmet while you drive into the sunset.
