We only have two days until the regular season kickoffs off on Thursday night. So as we look forward to this upcoming season, I wanted to give you a weekly look at the list of five players to avoid for fantasy football. Unfortunately, I do not see them living up to their projections. So for the predictions, I will be using the Half-PPR scoring projections on ESPN. I will run through the starting positions on your roster and pick a player to fade at each one of the five starting spots.
So without further ado, let us dive in.
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick – Projected QB13 vs Chargers
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been an improved player in his last few years in the league; cutting down on negative plays he was known for earlier in his career. While it may not seem like a tough defense based on the numbers last year, the Chargers defense was battered by injuries. A healthy defense lead by Bosa and Derwin James is not a squad I would like my quarterback to face off in Week 1. Particularly one that that a new signal-caller and an unproven offensive line to protect that quarterback. I would recommend not starting Fitzpatrick in week one.
RB: David Montgomery – Projected RB10 @ Rams
David Montgomery is an easy fade this week, as this matchup is troubling concerning Chicago for numerous reasons:
- The Rams’ defense was exceptional last year. They stifled opposing running backs to the tune of 14.9 PPG, best for 3rd in the NFL.
- When you consider, the Bears will be trailing throughout this game, meaning Montgomery has to secure his role as the passing down back in this offense. There is a nonzero chance Monty sees the same position he did last year.
- The implied point total has the Bears with only 18.5 points. Suppose that removes the touchdown upside in week one. Then, at the current cost, you are best looking elsewhere from the running back position.
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster – Projected WR35 @ Buffalo
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a season-long fade for me this year. Going up against the Bills is not a great way to start the season, as Buffalo finished the year as the 5th best fantasy football defense against WR in 2020. JuJu will likely see Taron Johnson this week, which could be an issue for him in week one.
Johnson allowed only .26 fantasy points per snap last year, ranking him 9th in the league last year. Add in that rookie Najee Harris is expected to be a focal point of the team, so those points will need to come from somewhere. I expect JuJu to be the one who suffers most because of it, particularly in this matchup. I’m benching JuJu if I have other options available.
TE: TJ Hockenson – Projected TE5 vs 49ers
There was no better defense against tight ends than the 49ers last year. This matchup for T.J. Hockenson will be his most demanding game of the season, given how good San Fransisco was against tight ends. Maybe he will catch some garbage points at the end of the game after it is no longer in doubt. But that is a bet I would not make if I have another quality option this week. Hockenson will give you a floor, as I cannot see the upside in this matchup. Although you likely do not have a better option at the tight end position, you will need to lower the expectations for what you expect from Hockenson in Week 1.
Flex: Josh Jacobs – Flex33 vs Ravens
This one seems pretty obvious. The team will be in a negative game script throughout. I do not want a running back who is the grinder and not the pass-catching option in this game. Jacobs could likely be schemed out of this game at the midway point. Jacobs is unable to provide value sufficient to your starting fantasy football lineup.
Fade Jacobs this week, as the Ravens defense will be a problem, particularly for the Raiders offensive line. The implied point total for the Raiders is 23.5. If one side of the offense exceeds, it will be the passing game and not the running game in Week 1. You likely have better starting flex options in your roster on week one.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.