Fantasy Football: Week 1 Thursday Night Football Boom-and-Bust

I’m so pumped. The NFL is here, and with that, fantasy football.

This offseason has taken at least a decade. It reminds me of the joke that I once spent a week one night in El Paso… Thank you, Seinfeld. For whatever reason, this NFL offseason seemed to drag longer than most, despite it being one of the craziest in NFL history.

There were big trades (Mathew Stafford, Sam Darnold, and Julio Jones), five teams grabbed their QB of the future (Jaguars, Jets, 49ers, Bears, and Patriots). There was talk of Russell Wilson being traded, Aaron Rodgers retiring, and DeShaun Watson being under criminal investigation. Wild times. All of it has led to this and I couldn’t be more excited to get the season started.

Every Monday and Thursday I’ll be naming a player who’ll boom, and one who’ll end up a bust.

It Begins

The Championship Bucs are hosting America’s Team (are they still?) the Dallas Cowboys. With Dak Prescott back under center and featuring the two best wide receiver groups in the NFL, there should be plenty of firepower. Oh, and America gets to watch the GOAT for a change in the NFL’s first game of the season.

Brady being one more year in Bruce Arians explosive offense is scary. Tom Brady threw for 40 touchdowns last year and he barely understood the offense, Brady’s words, not mine. Tom Brady is a God, no other way to put it. It’s incredible what he’s done.

It’s time to buckle up good people, and get ready for some action.

Player to Boom!

Ronald Jones, RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ronald Jones should be the lead back for the Bucs. I know ‘Playoff Lenny’ had a magnificent run to the Lombardi trophy, but Ronald Jones is the best pure runner on the team. He is not a three-down back due to his receiving insufficiencies and pass protection, but this is a player that can truck a linebacker and take it to the house at any time.  

Ronald Jones should be in line for 12-15 touches; which isn’t a lot, but he will make them count. Going up against a poor Dallas run defense (finished 31st in rushing yards given up in 2020), RoJo should have room to work and plenty of goal line opportunities.

With an implied total of 30 points, I see Jones reaching the end zone as Tampa gets rowdy for their Super Bowl celebration. Get Jones in your fantasy football lineup as a solid RB2 or in the flex. He will boom for your squad.  

Prediction: Ronald Jones, 15 rushes, 82 yards, 1 touchdown

Player to Bust

Ezekiel Elliott, RB – Dallas Cowboys

Look, I understand fantasy football managers don’t have the luxury of benching Ezekiel Elliott. I have Zeke in many leagues and I can’t bench him; but I am worried about Zeke in this contest. The fact of the matter is that Zeke is in the back nine of his career. He has tailed off in points per touch every year since his rookie year. But the fact remains he is the clear-cut RB1 on an explosive offense. He will be fine throughout the year. But on the road, playing against the Buc’s number one rush defense from a season ago, and playing without Zach Martin (COVID-19), Zeke is going to struggle.  

These are the type of games when I like to reach for upside in my flex spot. When I believe my RB1 or WR1 has a tough matchup, I try to find the flex player I believe can breakout and do damage. I believe expectations should be tempered with Zeke’s output. He is the goal-line back, so he may find the end zone. But in DFS where Zeke is priced at $6,700, that is too rich for my blood. Fade Zeke in DFS and play him with low expectations in all other formats. Zeke should be a top-7 RB throughout the year, but in this game I am wary of his output. He’s my bust tonight.

Prediction: 18 rushes 55 yards – 3 catches 14 yards. Zero touchdowns