Three Strikes and You’re Out!
It’s about that time in the NFL season. Where we put preseason projections behind us and face the – sometimes – harsh realities of the players we drafted in our fantasy football leagues. Week 3 is typically as far as my leash goes on unproven players, with the exception of rookies; I may give them another week or two just to be safe.
With that in mind I like to operate on a three strikes and you’re out policy. If a player starts the season with three bust weeks in fantasy football, it’s time to dispatch our preconceived notions and move on. Sometimes that means flat out dropping a bench player who hasn’t taken the next anticipated step. In other situations it means attempting to trade an underperforming star that you’ve invested serious draft capital in.
The key here is not to panic. I’m not suggesting rage dropping your number one pick because he is off to a slow start. But it may be time to seriously re-evaluate him.
Having said that, here are some players that are on strike two for me. These players are a bad Week 3 away from being on the trade, or chopping block.
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been hit and miss through the first two games. After a total stinker to start the season against Minnesota that saw him put up 195 yards and 0 TDS (3.7 points), he rebounded slightly with 234 yards and 2 TDs (21.36 points) in Week 2.
This offense has struggled heavily. They were only able to put up points in Week 2 because the Bears are horrible on defense. If Rodgers does not perform well in his Week 3 showdown with Tom Brady he is a drop candidate for me in 1QB fantasy football leagues.
Russell Wilson
Similar to Rodgers, Russell Wilson has had one terrible game and one salvageable game; while looking terrible to start the season.
He totaled 340 yards and 1 TD (21.8 points) in his revenge loss against Seattle. Wilson followed that lackluster appearance up with a dud of a game where he racked up 219 yards and 1 TD (13.06 points) in Week 2.
The Broncos were expecting to be one of the highest scoring teams this season. But after two games, new head coach Nathaniel Hackett looks completely overmatched.
Wilson is another aging quarterback that I could easily see dropping for the likes of Tua Tagovailoa if he doesn’t rebound in a big way.
Justin Fields
Justin Fields was given a pass in Week 1 due to the weather; so we didn’t penalize him for a stat line of 121 yards and 2 TDs (19.64 points). But once the weather cleared up in Week 2 and it was his time to shine, Fields dropped a stinker to the tune of 70 yards and no TDs (7.8 points).
As many anticipated, the Bears look awful, and are likely the worst offense in the league. The Bears seemed dead set on limiting Fields’ attempts as well. The second year QB only attempted 11 passes in Week 2.
Fields has far less margin for error than the former to quarterbacks. He should be dropped if he doesn’t find his way this week. That is of course if you haven’t already moved on from him on your fantasy football team.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott
Throughout the preseason it appeared that reports of Ezekiel Elliott’s demise we being greatly exaggerated. Sadly, that does not seem to be the case.
Zeke rushed for 52 yards and 0 TDs (5.4 points) in Week 1. He followed that up with 53 yards (5.4 points) in Week 2; with a combined 2 catches for -7 yards in those two games.
Obviously the injury to Dak Prescott has been a major factor in Zeke’s lack of production. Regardless, he seems to lack any burst and power whatsoever.
Dak could be back in Week 4, or he could be back in Week 8. I’m not waiting to find out if that will fix Zeke. If he puts up another bad fantasy football performance this week, I’d look to recoup some of my draft capital by trading him for a running back in the tiers below him. Zeke is the prime example of the sunken cost fallacy. Don’t fall for it. Get out now while his name still carries some value.
Devin Singletary
Devin Singletary looked solid in the opening game of the NFL season, but do to a large Bills lead he saw his workload managed. He finished with a line of 48 yards and 0 TDs (7.2 points), chipping in 2 catches for 14 yards.
That performance gave hope to Singletary’s fantasy football potential. He then followed up the solid start with a 19 yard and 0 TD (3.1 point) effort in Week 2.
As expected, the Bills backfield in a mess; and the majority of the high valuable touches are being vultured by Josh Allen.
Singletary was not a high draft pick in fantasy football this season, and is unlikely to fetch much on the trade market. If he doesn’t improve in Week 3 you may be left with no choice but to cut him for the likes of Jeff Wilson or another waiver wire streamer.
Rashaad Penny
Rashaad Penny has managed to stay healthy through the first two games of the season; a statement that would have shocked most fantasy football managers. Unfortunately for those managers, he hasn’t done much else.
Week 1 saw Penny rack up 60 yards and 0 TDs (6.7 points); followed up by a brutal 15 yards and 0 TDs (1.5 points) in Week 2.
Penny is not producing, and rookie Ken Walker has returned to the lineup. This looks to be a full committee on a bottom of the barrel offense and holds little fantasy football value moving forward.
Best case scenario here is if Penny has a solid Week 3, you can attempt to flip him for something resembling a useful starter. Otherwise, he will soon see a mass movement to the waiver wire in most leagues.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf
The big receiver is not off to a good start with Geno under center. Week 1 saw him haul in 7 catches, but he only managed to total 36 yards (5.5 points).
Week 2 was even worse. It saw Metcalf put up a stat line of 4 catches for 35 yards (5.1 points).
Yet another member of this terrible Seahawks offense that may soon see a new home. The only option here is to attempt to trade Metcalf to someone who only looks at his name.
The only other way Metcalf produces a decent return on investment would be if the Seahawks were to trade the star receiver, which is unlikely.
Darnell Mooney
Darnell Mooney, much like Fields, was given a pass Week 1 because of the Monsoon Bowl in which he hauled in 1 catch for 8 yards (1.3 points).
Surely, his breakout would come in Week 2; but it didn’t! Week 2 saw Mooney tally 1 reception and -4 yards (0.1 points).
At this point, there is little reason to believe that the talent of Mooney will ever reach its full potential. He’s likely to be the second Bears receiver in two years to be the bust of the year.
The best you can do now is to try and sell to a desperate fantasy football manager who still believes his big breakout is coming.
Hunter Renfrow
This one was thoroughly predictable. With the arrival of Davante Adams and Darren Waller looking relatively healthy someone was going to see their targets decrease form 2021; that person is Hunter Renfrow.
In Week 1, Renfrow caught 3 passes for 21 yards (2.76 points). He responded in Week 2 with 7 catches. However, he only managed to total 59 yards and fumbled twice (6.4 points).
After two weeks it appears obvious that there are too many mouths to feed in Las Vegas and Renfrow is the odd man out.
He figures to have some value moving forward, but it will likely be in the same range as Tyler Lockett; where you never feel safe starting him. His blow up games will likely occur with him on your bench.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet
This one truly pains me. I roster Cole Kmet in an unhealthy amount of fantasy football leagues. He was my preseason tight end sleeper all offseason. I was wrong!
Kmet through two games has 2 targets. He has yet to catch a pass or record a fantasy point.
Cole seems to be another talented player that has seen his fantasy value killed by the Bears offense.
He has already hit the waiver wire in most of the leagues I drafted him in. He is basically droppable for any tight end with a pulse. Truly a shame.
Albert Okwuegbunam
The arrival of Russell Wilson and departure of Noah Fant – paired with the injury to Greg Dulcich – seemed to signify that big things were in store for Albert O. Sadly, that has not been the case.
Albert O began Week 1 with a tolerable 5 catches for 33 yards (8.30 points). Instead of improving in Week 2, he disappeared and put up a goose egg.
There is something wrong with this Denver offense. Until Hackett finds his way through the growing pains of a rookie head coach, no one in this offense is trustworthy. You can safely drop Albert O for any streaming tight end in your fantasy football league.
Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry was known as a reliable low end TE1 during his time with the Chargers. In his first season with the Patriots last year, he saw his usage decrease significantly. He was able to be fantasy relevant living off of unsustainable touchdown production.
Unfortunately for Henry those touchdowns seem to have disappeared through two weeks – as did the majority of his catches.
In Week 1 Henry totaled 2 catches for 20 yards (4.0 points), and followed that up with a goose egg.
It appears the run of luck has finally come to an end. Henry can be dropped in even the deepest formats.
