With Arthur Smith in Atlanta, everyone is under the impression the Falcons are in win-now mode, and that could mean a shift in expectations for fantasy football owners. They are looking for guys who can excel in a multitude of roles, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Players like Kyle Pitts lining up outside, in the slot, and on the line in camp; and Mike Davis who can run and catch the ball out of the backfield plan to play huge roles on this team.
We can’t forget about players like Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Matt Ryan who are vets on this team and the offense will be running through for the majority of the time. But how will the vets adjust to a slightly more run-heavy offense, and how quickly will the rookie tight end become acclimated to the NFL?
Pass Catchers
Starting with the receiving core, Ridley is expected to have a majority of the workload. He had a 22% target share last year and he should see a superstar target share of over 25% in 2021. Expect him to be a top five receiver in fantasy football with WR1 potential. Nothing new here.
Russell Gage had a spike in targets when Julio Jones went missing after the Week 10 bye. He averaged eight targets a game in the back half of the season on over 80% of snaps played. He compiled 407 yards and three touchdowns during that stretch. Kyle Pitts is sure to take some of that away, but Gage can be a match up-based flex option for your team this year.
Speaking of Kyle Pitts, he has looked electric in camp so far. Lining up almost everywhere but the backfield, Pitts looks to be a dominant force in the NFL for years to come. Unfortunately, those who have him as a locked-in top three tight end do need to pump the brakes – He still is a rookie! Unless he is going to have the best rookie tight end season in history, his ADP is too high for my liking. However, I am still marking him down for a 16-18% target share on this team.
Running Back(s)
Mike Davis is the sole leader of this backfield… as of now. The Falcons are still hunting for a complimentary back to spell him. For the time being, Davis will be manning 15-20 touches a game. He’s done this before with success, but he is 28 years old now. The breaking point for running backs is usually 26 or 27, and the elite barely make it to 30. Davis will be serviceable as a flex option or your RB2 in a ‘Zero RB’ fantasy football draft. Expect the Falcons to bring in another back as a helping hand to keep Davis afloat for the entire 2021 season.
Quarterback
Matty Ice! A fan favorite for many fantasy football players. Matt Ryan has been through the wringer when it comes to his coaching staff. What we know is Ryan loves his number one guy, and he will throw for over 4,500 yards in a season. One problem – he does not run the ball. There are so many quarterbacks who run for over 500 yards a season, that it is very hard to keep Matty Ice in the top-12 conversation. He is not much of a touchdown guy either, only eclipsing 30 touchdowns three times in his career.
Look for him to target his number one, Ridley, then spread the ball accordingly. Luckily enough for fantasy football players is that this defense is still a dumpster fire. Look for Matt Ryan to air the ball out in order to try and win games from behind.
Draft Board Talk
Calvin Ridley is the only Falcon I’m considering at this point in the season. I love the outlook for Pitts in dynasty, but his ADP is way too high for my liking. If I don’t get a top three tight end, I will stream the position. Davis is a nice bench warmer to play on certain weeks or could be a floor RB2 with no real upside in a ‘Zero RB’ draft. Matt Ryan is business as usual. The ATL has a promising future, but a one track-minded present.
