You probably read the title of this article and told yourself, “I’ll have my running back depth before round 8.” In most fantasy football leagues the average number of teams are 10 or 12. With this in mind, it is almost impossible for everyone to have great running back depth and still fill out the rest of your squad. Most people will eventually cave to the pressure and take a pass catcher of some sort, or possibly even a quarterback. If everyone was able to have great running back depth early in drafts, a strategy catering towards zero RB would not exist
However, this is not a guide to perfect the zero RB strategy. This is how you can find more value later in drafts to maximize team potential. I always mention the word ‘value’ because it might just be the most important thing for a fantasy football roster. Yes, having the ability to take Christian McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook at the top of your draft is great. But being able to pinpoint the right guy to fill in for an injury, i.e McCaffrey last year, is key to winning the championship.
What Is ‘Late’?
In my last piece in the “Who Is Your Late Round Rockstar” series, I covered quarterbacks (you can check that out here). The question that I did not cover was what is considered a late round? It all depends on your roster size. A roster size of 12 and a roster size of 20 have different halfway points and naturally, the latter has a ‘late round’ break later in the draft. For this series, where we focus in on late round value at each position, the roster format will be the standard as follows:
QB – 2 RB – 2 WR – TE – FLEX – 5 Bench
This inncludes a draft with 12 rounds, so a late round pick would be considered anything in the final half of the draft. So the players we will be taking a deeper look at will come with ADPs in rounds seven or later. And remember, all ADPs will be gathered from Sleeper’s data which can be found from their twitter here.
Honorable Mentions
Before we get into the nitty gritty, I understand that ‘your guy’ might not be on this list. There are a handful of guys who are on the verge of being a late round pick, but do not quite have the ADP benchmark of seventh round or later. I won’t get into a deep dive for these guys, but here are some names to look for and their ADPs:
- Javonte Williams: 6th Round
- Kareem Hunt: 5th Round
- Myles Gaskin: 6th round
- James Robinson: 5th Round
- Chris Carson: 4th Round
Late Bloomers
5. Chase Edmonds
Chase Edmonds is currently going in the seventh round ahead of James Conner! That is unbelievable to think of considering a few years ago, Conner exploded onto the map during the Le’Veon Bell saga.
Edmonds had a career high in snap percentage at 46% last year. This was mainly due to downtime and injuries from Kenyan Drake. With Conner (who I believe is not as talented) replacing Drake, I expect a bigger timeshare. With the history of injuries and recent lack of production from Conner, you may be selecting a starting running back in the seventh round with Chase Edmonds.
4. Damien Harris
Damien Harris has been at the forefront of the Patriots running back depth chart since the offseason began. He showed flashes last year, getting 10+ touches in nine out of ten games he played. He also averaged 74.6 rushing yards in those nine games.
If Cam Newton is the starter for this team, the touchdown upside for Harris admittedly might not be there. He is current ADP is in the ninth round, so when projecting to be the teams starting running back you can expect him to have a solid floor. Plus, when Mac Jones takes over, expect a jump in goal line work as well. The drafting of Rhamondre Stevenson should not worry Harris owners.
3. Trey Sermon
I loved Trey Sermon coming out of college. He was actually my number four running back off the board in most of my mock drafts coming into April. Sermon landed in a great location, even though he is a tad bigger in size than Kyle Shanahan’s prototypical running back.
I think it is possible you find Sermon on your waiver wire weeks 1-3 because Raheem Mostert is the starter right now (barring a setback from injury). But if you want to secure him on your team before the breakout later in the year, you can find him going in the tenth round of drafts right now.
2. Mike Davis
I talked about Trey Sermon being my number four RB off the board in the NFL draft and I actually had him landing in the ATL with the Falcons. Instead they signed Mike Davis.
Davis was the 12th RB in PPR rankings for Carolina last year and quite possibly could have been higher if CMC missed the entire season. Davis did have a slow stretch last year mid-season, but faced defenses like New Orleans and Tampa Bay during that stretch (McCaffrey played week nine against the Chiefs as well).
Mike Davis still has some pep in his step, and without any true competition he can garner 15 or more touches a week to. His ninth round ADP will be a steal for fantasy football players going into 2021.
1. Gus Edwards
Gus Edwards is the ultimate blind spot in fantasy football drafts. Edwards has a career average of 5.2 yards per carry, and had six touchdowns last year, the most in his career.
Now with Mark Ingram out of town, I expect more work as a whole for Gus moving forward. A stat that most people look over is Edwards had the most rushes on the team besides Lamar Jackson. This, despite using high draft capital on acquiring JK Dobbins. Expect Jackson to lead the pack and J.K. Dobbins to follow, but do not discount Gus Edwards nearing 1,000 yards and a handful of touchdowns as a consistent flex option in the 12th round.
Picking and Choosing
Whether you are attempting zero RB or were lucky enough to get a stud early on, use this guide to build your team with maximum value and output. Your fantasy football home league may differ in ADP slightly, but if you believe in the player and project accordingly, the choice becomes much easier.
Picking and choosing between players in the same round can be very tough. This is especially true later on when you have already filled out a majority of your roster. Having some names, data, and overall input to make this decision easier can help differentiate between a draft stash and a week one trash.
