The tight end position is the most futile position in fantasy football after the ‘big three’. I am a big believer in grabbing one of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Darren Waller early in your fantasy draft and having a huge advantage when it comes to the tight end position. But usually, only three teams end up with either one of these players.
With Kittle being injured last year, there was a 100 point gap between the TE2 and TE3 in fantasy football PPR leagues. Between the TE3’s Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan (they tied for 3rd), and the TE16 Evan Engram, there was only a 37 point gap.
Funny enough, many tight ends in 2020 finished with either the same amount of points or only differed by one or two. In order to filter through which tight end was able to help or hurt your team, you need to find the consistencies in the field of play.
Consistencies
Let’s take a look at the two guys who tied for third in the PPR tight end rankings, Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan.
Logan Thomas came out strong with four catches and a touchdown in Week 1. After that, he didn’t have a top-10 week at the position until Week 6 – when the tides finally turned. The QB throne was given to Kyle Allen in Week 5, followed by Alex Smith in Week 9.
From Week 6 on, Thomas was on a 16-game pace for 84 receptions, over 800 yards and seven touchdowns. From Week 9 on, Thomas was on the field for 90% of the team’s offensive snaps, at minimum. It was a never-ending opportunity and Thomas became a weekly starter once the WFT switched quarterbacks.
Rob Tonyan was the definition for the word efficient. An 88.1% catch rate and a 22.1% touchdown rate propelled him into the top-5 of tight ends. That was the key to Tonyan’s success. He was also very touchdown dependent. If he didn’t score a touchdown, he was essentially useless in fantasy football.
In the seven games he did not score, Tonyan scored more than 10 points scored once. As far as snap percentages go, Tonyan never finished a game with over 74% of snaps – while averaging just 61% of snaps.
This goes to show how two players can reach the same amount of targets at two totally different paces and performances. One got there off the back of plentiful opportunity. The other was highly efficient, turning his lack of opportunity into fantasy football gold.
When finding your diamond in the rough, there is much more than just end of the season rankings and point totals. Opportunity and efficiency play a key factor when it comes to being consistent at a high level.
Pitt Stop
Before we get into the swing of things, let’s talk about the elephant in the room, Kyle Pitts. Drafted to step in and be the #2 option, Pitts is walking into a Julio Jones-less Falcons team. He is currently being drafted with an ADP of 45.8 in PPR leagues, according to Sleeper. He is also projected to be the fifth ranked tight end on Sleeper and the sixth ranked TE on ESPN.
According to this ADP, Pitts would be the fourth tight end off the board! I am not sure I’m willing to take a rookie tight end over proven guys like TJ Hockenson or Mark Andrews. Give me Pitts in the sixth round and I am all in. But please do not jump for him in the fourth round when we have never seen him play in the NFL yet.
Late Round Tight End Watchlist
Number 5: Noah Fant (ADP – 75.5)
Noah Fant is a part of an offense that is just a quarterback away from being a big contender in the AFC. With rumors of Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson trades floating around, Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock serve to stand in as the bridge quarterbacks for this team. Lock can have his moments and so can Teddy, but can either of them support three or more fantasy football options in this highly talented offense? Cortland Sutton is back and Jerry Jeudy is in year two as well.
Being 6’4” and 250 lbs, I expect Noah Fant to be the backbone for whoever the starting quarterback is. Fant is a huge target with abnormal athletic ability that can serve as a safety net for the Denver QB room. With Teddy and Lock being unlikely to be the future of the team he will be a great safety valve going forward. Expect a slight downtick in targets, but positive regression for touchdowns this upcoming season.
Number 4: Jonnu Smith (ADP – 142.6)
Jonnu Smith can very well be the number one target for the Patriots this year. When A.J. Brown was out in the first quarter of last season, Smith took over the passing game. Scoring five touchdowns over four games and having no less than 11 fantasy football points in any of those games proved can do it all.
With no true number one receiver in this team, Jonnu Smith can emerge as the favorite target among the New England QB room. Cam Newton loves his big bodied targets. If he isn’t running it in, he will be looking for Smith in the end zone. When Mac Jones eventually becomes the QB, he will need a safety valve as well, I.E., Jonnu Smith.
It’s a small sample size, but if you take those first four games Smith was on pace for 20 touchdowns. With no WR1 in play in New England, I project double digit touchdowns from Smith this season regardless of who is at quarterback.
Number 3: Rob Gronkowski (ADP – 90.5)
Gronk has been one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets for a decade now. He won’t be getting 120 targets like he did in New England, but expect 15-20 targets in the red zone with potential at double digit touchdowns. While ranking second in yards per reception (13.8) last year, Gronk is still a threat in the end zone due to his size and chemistry with Brady.
Lock him in as a weekly fantasy football stream and even more so with an easy matchup. As long as Brady plays, so will Gronk. Until they retire they’ll continue to be fantasy relevant.
Number 2: Evan Engram (ADP – 138.2)
I have an article detailing why you should be targeting Evan Engram in your fantasy football drafts, so check that out here. Engram’s ADP is way too low for his talent. I am in no way saying Engram will once again be a top-5 tight end like his rookie season. But with his ability and opportunity, it is really hard to pass up on the potential for a re-breakout for Engram in 2021. With the addition of all of the offensive weapons to the team, it will only benefit him going forward.
Number 1: Dallas Goedert (ADP – 103)
Zach Ertz is most likely out of town and you have a pair of receivers who have not proven it in the NFL just yet. Who is next in line to receive some high quality work for the Eagles? It’s Dallas Goedert.
When Goedert is on the field he is a target machine. In the 10 healthy games Goedert had last year, he averaged 6.4 targets per game (including one game with only one target). He has the potential to be Jalen Hurts’ number one pass-catcher this year due to his experience and level of talent. Goedert has been a top-10 tight end with Ertz playing in mint condition, so what would happen if Goedert was the new Ertz?
Wrap Up
If you can’t get a hold on one of the top three kings at the TE position and you don’t want to pay up for a rookie or guys on failing offenses, look no further. You have five stream-worthy tight ends with all the capabilities to become a weekly plug-and-play tight end for your roster. Take advantage while ADPs are low, because come August, you may have already missed out on something special.
