With the next installment in my fantasy football segment, “Who Is Your Late Round Rock Star” we have our YAC specialists, deep ball threats, and some of the best play makers in today’s game. That’s right, it’s the wide receivers (You can view running backs here). By far the deepest position in football; receivers are known to be high flying assets to their teams with value all over the draft board.,
Too Much Value
One piece of advice to store in your brain would be to remember the value of wide receivers is vastly different than running backs. When I tell you the wide receiver position is the deepest in the game, it is by a large margin. Running back value usually falls off a cliff going into rounds four and five, but that is when receiver value starts to blossom.
We all know our top guys from Davante Adams to Stefon Diggs, who consistently get drafted in the late-first, or early-second rounds. Then you have players like Allen Robinson or Terry McLaurin who are poised to be a WR1, but their team situation causes a drop in ADP to about the third or fourth round. You also have rookies who are so talented that regardless of team, Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith are landing on fantasy football player’s rosters as their WR2 in the 5th round.
What I am trying to say is no matter how long you wait to draft a receiver you will find value in whatever round you name. So the question is, who do you take if there are so many options? With a few names off of our list already (see above), it’s certain that any player with an ADP of 72 or higher (sixth round) will not be on this list.
The ADP we will be basing this off of is Sleeper’s ADP list as of which you can find on their website or on their twitter. Let’s take a deep dive into the abyss known as the wide receiver room.
Check the Numbers!
“But Mikey, there are so many receivers going late in drafts. What if I want one that’s not on this list?” Great question reader! This top five is my personal top five, and who I am specifically targeting to be ‘boom or bust’ flex options for my team. Another piece of advice when targeting wide receivers is to check a team’s passing volume. Are they a top passing offense or a bottom passing offense?
For example, the Baltimore Ravens were ranked 32nd in pass attempts in 2020 with 406, per Pro Football Reference. On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Steelers led the league in pass attempts with 656.
Just because you like the rookie Rashod Bateman as your eighth round pick, does not equate him to being a good value. Even if Bateman gets a 20% target share that is still only 81 targets. He will need to be highly efficient in order to be anything more than a match up based flex option, or a bench warmer, for your team. When it comes to late round value, stick with the teams that offer a bigger pie to share.
The Abyss
Number 5: Antonio Brown (ADP – 115.3)
Antonio Brown is just three years removed from being a consistent top five receiver in fantasy football. In eight games last year, Brown posted just under 500 yards on 45 catches. Extrapolate that to a 17-game pace and you have 95 catches for 1026 yards.
Brown is also an endzone magnet. From 2013-2018, Brown secured eight or more touchdowns in each season, with four out of six seasons reaching double digit touchdowns. With an ADP of 115.3 (mid-tenth round), and Tom Brady throwing him the ball I don’t mind starting Brown as my weekly flex.
Number 4: Robby Anderson (ADP – 105.9)
I’m not sure why people are sleeping on Robby Anderson. He is going way too late in drafts, especially after posting almost 1,100 yards on 136 targets. Predicting touchdowns is hard because it’s not really a sticky stat; meaning all it takes is one deep ball that catches too much wind or getting tripped up on the one-yard line to prevent a score. Anderson only had three TDs in 2020, but with such a high target count you can expect some positive regression in the touchdown department.
I think the offense will be better as a whole with CMC returning from injury, and the addition of Sam Darnold. Comments have come from Anderson himself, saying Darnold looks like a new player in a different uniform. Perhaps the Adam Gase curse is real after all, and he will become a star with the Panthers. I expect a great connection and over 125 targets for Robby Anderson.
Number 3: Henry Ruggs (ADP – 145.9)
Now you may be thinking why would Henry Ruggs be on this list if he didn’t do anything last year. As much as I agree, Ruggs is the one guy on this list that I am truly taking a shot on with my later picks in fantasy football drafts.
Let’s take a quick look at Nelson Agholor. He was the one pass-catcher getting targets consistently other than Darren Waller. After the week six bye, Agholor averaged 6.5 targets a game, peaking at 11 targets in week 13 against the Jets.
With Agholor signing in New England, Ruggs is the next man up to take a jump in target share on the Raiders. The team invested heavily in him using a 1st-round pick in 2020, and that draft capital means he will be given a chance to prove he can be relevant. I am projecting a true breakout in 2022, but 2021 is the year Ruggs shows his true form and really flashes in a set role for the Raiders offense.
Number 2: Michael Gallup (ADP – 117.3)
Even with Dak Prescott out for most of the year, the Cowboys still ended up with the second-most passing attempts on the season. They are destined to throw the ball.
Even as the third option on the team, Michael Gallup has all the horsepower needed to be a 1,000 yard receiver. Gallup averaged over 14 yards per catch and had an ADoT (average depth of target) of 11.8 yards. Being the number three receiver on the second-highest passing offense can still be a net positive for Gallup.
In 2020, Gallup had a low catch rate of 56%. This was due to a low level of play at the quarterback position while Prescott was out. With only 64.2% of his targets being deemed catchable, he had a true catch rate of 86.8%. Expect another 100 targets and about 65 receptions. If Gallup can maintain the downfield athleticism, he is en route to a 1,000 yard season – and the perfect flex play for your roster.
Number 1: Mike Williams (ADP – 121.9)
Mike Williams is the ultimate specimen at the wide receiver position. At 6’4” and 220 pounds, Williams is the ultimate deep threat and fantasy football sleeper. Being able to win any jump ball or contested catch is a game changer. With the Charger’s improving their offensive line, Justin Herbert will be more poised in the pocket to get the ball down the field to Williams.
While an elite player, Keenan Allen is not much of a touchdown threat – totaling no more than eight in a season. So, if and when Justin Herbert throws 35+ touchdowns, some or most of those are bound to land with Williams. This is the ultimate boom or bust pick, but with the ability for double digit touchdowns, and games with multiple touchdowns Mike Williams is the one pick that can win you weeks off the back of his performance.
