As your fantasy football drafts approach, you are probably knee deep in preparation; probably having your draft strategy in mind by now. You could be going zero RB and focusing on the WR position early. Or you could be going robust RB and focus on the value at the WR position later in the draft. Or you could just be going with best player available.
No matter what, there is plenty of value to be had at the WR position this season in fantasy football. At all points in the draft, there are players that I believe outperform their ADP. The rest of this article will highlight players available at different points in the draft that I am happy to draft ahead of their ADP.
Early Draft
Michael Pittman Jr., WR14, 41st Overall
In the early rounds of a fantasy football draft, finding ADP values is not the easiest. According to ADP, there are several QBs and TEs going in the 3rd or 4th rounds that push valuable players like Michael Pittman down draft boards.
Michael Pittman is coming off of a 1000 plus yard season with 6 touchdowns. With an improvement at the QB position in Matt Ryan, there is no reason to believe that 1200 yards is out of reach. In addition to an increase in yardage, I am looking forward to more red zone usage and more red zone efficiency. Pittman is the WR1 for the Colts, and Matt Ryan has recently peppered his leading pass catcher with targets historically.
Matt Ryan’s lead pass catcher and their target share:
2021: Ridley 27.4% (5 games)
2020: Ridley 25.8%
2019: Julio 25.7%
2018: Julio 28.1%
2017: Julio 28.6%
2016: Julio 27%You get the point – Michael Pittman is about to an absurd target share from a very good QB
— Justin (@Justin_14P) August 4, 2022
Pittman clearly is not in the same tier as the top few WRs. But his consistency from last season was fairly promising. He only had two top 12 weeks (one was WR2), but finished the year with eight top 24 performances. In 2019 and 2020 there were only 12 players who put up at least eight top 24 weeks. Over that span, an average of only three players repeat that number. The jury is still out on whether Pittman will repeat. But I am looking forward to a big year and will be happy to use a late 3rd or early 4th round pick on Pittman.
Middle Rounds
Brandon Aiyuk, WR41,101st Overall
Brandon Aiyuk is quickly becoming one of my favorite values in fantasy football drafts this season. He quietly had 826 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns last season; even though he was in the doghouse throughout training camp and into the early parts of the regular season.
Something seems a bit different this year. Everything out of camp has been positive, and it seems that he is making a great connection with Trey Lance.
"B.A. has taken his game to another level. It’s crazy. I haven’t won a one-on-one rep with him yet."
Jimmie Ward on Brandon Aiyuk's standout training camp.
That and more observations from Day 7: https://t.co/wBJEitP1EL
— Jennifer Lee Chan (@jenniferleechan) August 4, 2022
In 2021, Aiyuk had 10 red zone targets and he was able to convert half into touchdowns. The 49ers should have a very effective offense and will be in the red zone, a lot. If Aiyuk has even a small increase in targets in the red zone, he will greatly outproduce his 9th round ADP. I would be happy to take him with my 8th round pick in most formats this season.
Late Rounds
Skyy Moore, WR58, 139th Overall
After trading Tyreek Hill early in the offseason, it was clear that the Chiefs would add some WRs through free agency and the draft. In free agency the Chiefs added Juju Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdez-Scantling.
Both Juju and MVS are currently being drafted ahead of Moore, which makes sense. But I think it is only a matter of time until Skyy Moore’s fantasy football ADP passes MVS.
It seems like MVS is really struggling with drops, while Moore is shining in all aspects during camp. So much so that Moore is even being given some touches out of the backfield. I don’t think he will have a Deebo role, but the Chiefs are creative play callers, so this could be a big benefit for Moore.
It is not the breakfast bond that Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp had, but Moore always makes sure to stay close to Mahomes so he can ask questions whenever they come up.
Rookie WR Skyy Moore says he sits right behind Patrick Mahomes in film meetings. "Whenever I've got a question, I just go tap him real quick. And he's always able to whisper the answer to me or how he wants things done. I try to stay close to him."
— Jesse Newell (@jessenewell) August 4, 2022
Moore is currently going in the mid to late 12th round in fantasy football drafts. I can see myself using an 11th round pick on him if I am in need of a high upside WR at that point in the draft.
Undrafted in Most Drafts
Nico Collins, WR80
So far this offseason there has only been good news about Nico Collins. He had valuable offseason workouts with his teammates, including starting QB, Davis Mills. He also spent time working out with Texans great Andre Johnson. It is clear that he has put in the work this offseason and it has caught the attention of his coaches, teammates, and the media.
HC Lovie Smith spoke on Nico Collins' big day at practice:
"When you're 6-4, most corners around six feet, that's a pretty good match up for us. Nico Collins is an excellent football player. We expect him to make plays like that.”#WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) August 2, 2022
In addition to his good camp, Nico should be in line for an uptick in work. He is the WR2 on a team that is projected to be trailing in most of their games. This will force them to pass the ball often. Nico should be one of the primary pass catchers – especially when they get to the red zone. Last season Nico Collins only had 6 red zone targets. If this number goes up even slightly Collins will be in line for a big uptick in fantasy football points.
