Last week, I was struck by a strange feeling of uncertainty while writing this article about Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr. and his projected breakout season for fantasy football (which was unfortunately published a few hours before Smith’s injury news broke). My confidence regarding Smith was still high at the time, but I just could not stop thinking about one of his teammates. I realized that I had no idea how to feel about WR Adam Thielen.
It’s been an increasingly popular strategy to fade Thielen going into the 2021 season. He wasn’t on any of my personal draft lists, but upon further thought, I wasn’t sure why. Every time I read his name the word “regression” popped into my head, but I hadn’t done any real research as to why he’d regress in the first place.
As soon as I finished the Smith piece I started digging into Thielen’s stats. I wanted to form my own opinion on the aging receiver, and now I can tell you myself why you should absolutely avoid Adam Thielen.
2020 Season
The 2020 season was one of Thielen’s best. At a spry 31 years old, he finished as the overall WR8 in Half-PPR. And that success is not unusual, as he’s been a top-10 WR in three of his last four seasons. He ended the season with 108 total targets (32nd) and 925 receiving yards (26th). So where’d the WR8 finish come from? Thielen grabbed a whopping 14 TD passes last year. That was 3rd best in the league behind only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. He had the highest TD percentage in the entire league (12.96%).
Those TDs were essential in keeping Thielen relevant in fantasy football. He thrived in the 6th best red zone offense in the NFL, demanding 19 red zone targets (5th) and catching 84% of them (4th among WRs with at least 10 red zone targets). He received 34% of the Vikings’ looks inside the 20, and 37% inside the 10 – both 2nd behind Davante Adams. Thielen was undoubtedly the 2nd best red zone threat in the league last year, but had only one TD outside the red zone.
Incoming Regression
First, let’s discuss Thielen’s expected TD regression. Even as the top red zone option on his team, 14 TDs is ridiculously high. Players with 98-118 targets averaged just 5.76 TDs in 2020 (Thielen had 108 targets). If he scored on that average instead, he would have dropped all the way to WR31. Obviously, Thielen is used more at the goal line than the average WR. But even if we optimistically give him nine TDs, he’s potentially down to the WR20.
We also need to address his target regression; particularly regarding the split with emerging WR Justin Jefferson. In Weeks 1-5 last season, Thielen received 66% of the targets between him and Jefferson. That fell to 39% for the remaining 12 weeks once Jefferson had broken out.
The pace Thielen set in Weeks 6-17 would have put him at 91 targets on the year. That’s in the same range of WRs like Keelan Cole, Sterling Shepard, and TY Hilton. Players with 81-101 targets averaged 137.96 fantasy points in Half-PPR, good for a WR40 finish.
Worse for fantasy football managers that have Thielen; the Vikings defense is expected to improve drastically this year. After a dreadful 2020 season where they allowed 475 total points (29th) and 6,292 total yards (27th), the team made a huge effort to bring in veterans like CB Patrick Peterson and DT Sheldon Richardson this offseason.
Fewer negative game scripts means the Vikings should resort to their run-heavy tendencies more often than last season. I also expected Thielen to lose targets to Smith had he not been injured, but the Vikings recent trade for Chris Herndon shows me that they want a TE involved in the passing game.
2021 Projections
Thielen is currently being drafted as the WR22 in fantasy football. He’s being taken on average as the 5th pick in the 5th round, according to FantasyPros. There’s no way Thielen repeats his 2020 WR8 finish, and he’ll most likely land outside the top 20 WRs this season.
Thanks to his projected target share, even with a sizable TD bonus, I see him in the WR30 range. He’s being taken around guys like Amari Cooper, Mike Davis, T.J. Hockenson, and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom I think will get more opportunities and offer more fantasy value than Thielen.
It is important to note that Thielen will probably find success in the first few weeks of the season. Smith’s meniscus surgery is potentially season-ending. In the time it takes for Herndon to learn the offense, Thielen could see high TD rates again.
The Vikings’ first five opponents are the Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks, Browns, and Lions, all extremely beatable defenses. Prepare for him to look great for the first quarter of the year, but don’t buy into the hype. They will play much better defenses for the rest of the season. If you can get him in the 6th round, go for it, but don’t expect big things from Thielen in 2021.
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Wow it’s great that I dropped this trash player