The consensus across the fantasy football community is that Josh Allen is QB1. In fact, all current ADPs support that. It makes sense that a guy who has finished as the QB1 in back-to-back seasons would repeat for the third time. With the addition of James Cook and no losses of major offensive starters, Josh Allen seems poised to three-peat. No other quarterback has posted back-to-back years as QB1 since Dante Culpepper three-peated during the 2003-2005 seasons. The chances that someone overtakes Allen’s top spot are higher than you may think.
2022 isn’t 2021.. or 2020
In 2021, the Bills had the 24th ranked strength of schedule. That bode well for Allen and the Bills’ offense. This year is different; as most sites have the Bills’ strength of schedule somewhere between 12th and 16th toughest.
A large reason for Josh Allen finishing as QB1 was the use of his legs. Allen posted 763 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in 2021. Coach Sean McDermott recently said something that is worrisome for Allen’s fantasy football expecations this year. According to Adam Maya, The Bills want to evolve their offense and preserve Allen’s health for the long term. McDermott had this to say when asked about the topic.
“Yeah, we want to evolve,” McDermott told NFL Network’s Judy Battista during an interview at the Annual League Meeting. “We’re always trying to evolve — on the field, off the field, schematically — and in this case with Josh’s running or the amount of times that we run him, we have to continue to evolve that way and making sure we’re doing right by him by doing right by our team. So, we are going to keep a close eye on that.”
This indicates that Allen most likely won’t top 100 rushing attempts for the third year in a row. That could threaten his QB1 spot for fantasy football.
So, if not Josh Allen, who will finish as the QB1 in 2022? There are numerous elite quarterbacks who could take the top spot. But the quarterback best suited to finish as QB1 this season is Arizona Cardinals quarterback, Kyler Murray.
If you are reading this and scratching your head, hear me out. Kyler Murray averaged 22.18 points per game last season across 14 games. At a full season, he would have finished as QB4 overall. The Cardinals’ offense struggled greatly without DeAndre Hopkins, but coach Kliff Kingsbury has stated publicly he was unprepared for the loss of Hopkins. This year, the Cardinals have all off-season to prepare for the first six games without him.
The Cardinals added a former college teammate of Murray, Marquise Brown. Brown will be the fastest pass-catcher on the Cardinals by far, giving them a well-needed deep threat. During their sole year together, Murray and Brown dominated at Oklahoma. Brown posted 1,318 yards on only 75 catches. That’s over 17 yards per catch on average. Brown in Baltimore was the main guy and was running a multitude of routes. Being surrounded by pass-catchers like Zach Ertz, DeAndre Hopkins, AJ Green, Trey McBride, and Rondale Moore, Brown will be able to spread the field and focus on the deep balls he and Murray flourished at doing in Oklahoma.
Brown told PFF earlier this year something extremely similar.This is promising for Murray’s fantasy football stock, as he is one of the most accurate deep ball passers in the league in an air raid offense.
The Cardinals also added Trey McBride to pair with TE Zach Ertz. McBride was an elite pass-catcher in college for Colorado State. In 2021, McBride posted 1,121 yards on 90 receptions and won the John Mackey Award for the best tight end in division one football. This addition will allow Ertz to focus on possession routes, as a sort of safeguard for Murray when he is in trouble.
Not only will Kyler have an improved passing offense, but his work on the ground seems to remain unchanged going forward. After his injury last season, Murray came back averaging 46 rushing yards per game. That includes an abysmal performance where he only posted 3 rushing yards against Detroit. If Murray averages these numbers for a whole season, he would be on pace for 782 rushing yards. If the Cardinals intend to use Murray as they did Weeks 13-18, his overall rushing numbers should improve.
The biggest fear with Murray is potential injuries. The Cardinal’s offensive line looks shaky at best and Murray has played through multiple injuries which stunted his production overall. Kyler is aware of this concern and has spent the past season bulking up to be able to absorb hits better. Murray posted this photo on Instagram, which was later tweeted out by an NFL Rumors account. If the bulking pays off and Kyler avoids injury, there is no reason, he won’t be a top contender to take over Josh Allen’s spot as the fantasy football QB1.
