I’m a borderline insomniac.
It’s self-induced to be sure, and it’s nothing I’ve been diagnosed with, but I have given up hope of restoring regular sleep patterns and find myself up until 2am many nights for no good reason.
Even in June, I blame the NFL for my affliction.
As a transplanted New Yorker who now lives in Europe, the National Football League has no regard for my health and general well-being. Amsterdam is six hours ahead of New York, so my football Sundays now start at 7pm and end somewhere around that magical hour of 2 in the morning – while I watch the Sunday night replay when I wake up in the morning (thank you, Game Pass).
And, sure, I understand that there is no meaningful NFL action right now, but the relentless news cycle and many of the people I now routinely interact with on Twitter have been active in the wee hours of my morning.
I need to solve this sleep problem before the season starts. It’s impacting my mood and my daily state of mind. So, at this far-too-early stage of the 2021 NFL season, I’ve decided to kill two birds with one stone. I’ve decided to focus my restless hours on researching fantasy football… and I’ve decided to research my favorite NFL franchise, the New England Patriots, in a vain attempt to run back the clock and finally rest my active mind.
Yes, I’m NY born and raised, and a Pats fan. Hate all you like. I’ll have to get into that in another article; but for now, let’s take a look at a guy who you should take a flier on in your fantasy football leagues and dream big with in 2021: New England running back Damien Harris.
A Fantasy Football Sleeper
Harris is the darling of the early draft season, as many seem to believe that he’ll see the lion’s share of the touches in the New England backfield. Sony Michel remains on the rosters at the moment, and James White and draft-day addition Rhamondre Stevenson are likely to get involved, but it’s Harris who is poised to take a leap.
If you think I’m dreaming, let’s dive a little deeper:
Ranking only 46th in snap share from just a season ago, Harris finished sixth in the league in true yards per carry and 9th in yards created per touch. He also faced the most average defenders in the box and the second-highest percentage of stacked fronts of any NFL back. This was due to the one-dimensional nature of the Pats offense in 2020, and Cam Newton’s lack of downfield passing ability.
Back, with a Vengeance
So what did the Patriots do this offseason? They committed to improving the passing game; signing two of the best tight ends available in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, inking veteran wideouts Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, and drafting former Alabama quarterback Mac Jones 15th overall.
Additionally, the Pats have committed to improving and reinforcing a defense that underperformed and lost a few starters to COVID opt-outs last season. This offseason, they’ve added Matthew Judon, Kyle Van Noy, Davon Godchaux, Henry Anderson, Montravius Adams, Christian Barmore and Ronnie Perkins… and that’s just the new faces along the team’s defensive front.
With PFF’s fifth-highest ranked secondary returning, along with Dont’a Hightower back to man the middle, this unit is talented and now very deep. And, of course, one of the best to ever do it still oversees the defensive scheme and game-planning.
Coming in at a Value
All of this bodes well for Harris, assuming he commands more than the 47.5% opportunity share he saw last season. An improved passing game should open up the box while a bolstered defense should keep games close. Though Harris is unlikely to catch many passes, he’s still a near lock for the majority of early-down and short-yardage work.
According to Sleeper’s June 14th Fantasy Football Redraft PPR ADP data, Harris is going as the 101.6th player off the board. In 12-team leagues. That’s close to the middle of round 8, around where guys like Michael Carter, Todd Gurley, and Trey Sermon are being selected.
As the current RB37, Harris has a real chance to improve his standing, merely based on how the team has improved around him. And, given that Rex Burkhead has taken his 31.6% snap share to Houston, there should be more opportunity for Harris in what’s likely to be one of the league’s run-heaviest attacks once again.
Oh, and the Pats have Pro Football Focus’s #3 offensive line heading into 2021.
Michel looked good down the stretch and Stevenson could eat into Harris’s potential, and still, Harris holds compelling upside in 2021. Don’t sleep on this player, even as a part of the unpredictable Patriots backfield. Get him on your fantasy football roster at a discount before people catch on to the fact that he could legitimately rush for double-digit TDs this season and help the Pats win more games than many expect.
At the very least, you’ll be able to rest easy knowing Harris is an easy flex plug-and-play in plus matchups and a great bench-depth addition given his talent and situation. At best, he’s a potential league-winning back who could dominate touches and become a a nightmare for defensive coordinators on a weekly basis.
And, now that I’ve put this article to bed, it’s time I put myself to bed, too… where I’ll be enjoying sweet dreams of what Harris can become in 2021.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.