Well, weren’t the opening round of the fantasy football playoffs something? I cannot remember a more outlandish start to open up the postseason. We had stalwarts Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill shine bright, while some new faces in Tyler Huntley, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Gabriel Davis bust out.
Hopefully, you survived the stinkers put forth by Tom Brady, Alvin Kamara, Najee Harris, and Ja’Marr Chase. We even had Duke Johnson payoff that upside fantasy football managers have chased for the past half-decade. So, as we move onto the second round of the playoffs, here are five players I expect to fall short of their projections.
QB: Josh Allen 23.10 Projected Fantasy Points
Thru 13 games, we've seen Josh Allen finish as THE QB1 on the week FIVE times. For context:
2019 Lamar Jackson: 4x
2018 Patrick Mahomes: 3x
2013 Peyton Manning: 3xWe have four more games to go people.
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) December 13, 2021
Josh Allen, coming off an incredible season as the QB1 in 2020, has managed to repeat that feat in 2021 through 14 games. It has been a long time since we have seen a quarterback repeat the overall QB1. That was Drew Brees in 2013.
Even more impressive about Allen, even with a drop in efficiency, Allen’s fantasy football statistics have not taken a hit. Compared to last year, Allen’s EPA/Play has dropped -.124, yet he is still producing high-end fantasy statistics. The opponent this week is why I would be crazy enough to fade the QB1 on the year.
New England annihilates opposing quarterbacks to the tune of 11.58 fantasy points per game. So, it is no surprise that New England is 1st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. The Patriots have permitted quarterbacks to score 20+ fantasy points only three times this season. So while Allen has an incredible floor, I see New England dropping him short of the projection this week.
RB: Josh Jacobs 16.42 Projected Fantasy Points
So far in the battle between Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs, the answer has been Peyton Barber
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 20, 2021
Fantasy football players have been here before with Josh Jacobs. Unfortunately, we are left wanting more from a player who managed to have another mediocre fantasy football performance. It does not help Jacobs that the Raiders revamped offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL.
Raiders are last in PFF run-block grade and 31st in Run EPA/Play. However you slice it, the line has been a massive disappointment this season. Facing Vegas, we have whatever you call the Broncos mediocre offense, as it has been challenging to watch them try to keep up with their superior defense.
The Broncos are planning to start Drew Lock, and this game has an over/under of 42 points. It extinguishes both teams in a game where one side (the Broncos) will struggle to produce offense. I do not see Jacobs hitting his projection and will fall short in this heated division matchup.
WR: Devonta Smith 14.96 Projected Fantasy Points
The inability for the Eagles to get DeVonta Smith the ball is inexcusable
— Kevin (@Daboys_22) December 22, 2021
The Heisman Trophy winner has had a promising rookie season, but I do not see it being a rosy finish for Smith. This year, the Eagles have become a run-first team; they are the only NFL team with a run rate over 50%. The Eagles have averaged 24.8 pass attempts/game in the last five games. To show you how low that total is, the Eagles are currently last, averaging 28.92 pass attempts/game. So, the Eagles have decided to double down on the run down the stretch.
On top of that, Goedert has 28 targets to Smith’s 27 in the last five games where Hurts has started, which is a problem for a fantasy football wide receiver. An elite target share can overcome limited pass attempts. When a wide receiver has neither, then they are limited in fantasy.
The Eagles have won four of the last five games with this run-first approach, and I do not see the coaching staff suddenly becoming a pass-heavy group. Until that changes, DeVonta Smith will be a fantasy fade.
TE: George Kittle 18.10 Projected Fantasy Points
Is George Kittle the best TE in the NFL?
(Presented by @AWS) pic.twitter.com/rEJTjrAIaF
— PFF (@PFF) December 21, 2021
George Kittle is back, and it is a beautiful thing to see. Kittle is the best tight end in the NFL, and he is reminding us all just how incredible of a player he is. I selected Kittle this week because the matchup and the fantasy football projections seemed far too high.
Did you know that the Titans have not allowed a touchdown to tight ends this season? There have only been two tight ends to reach 60 yards against Tennessee, Dan Arnold in Week 5 and Travis Kelce in Week 7.
Sleeper has Kittle currently projected for 83 yards on six receptions. Even if Kittle hits that mark, that puts him at 14.3 fantasy points. It will likely come down to a receiving touchdown for Kittle in this matchup, and considering the RedZone success Tennessee has shown, I’m willing to bet on them keeping the streak alive.
Flex: Darrell Henderson 16.91 Projected Fantasy Points
I’ve said it all week and I’ll stick with it now. I’m playing Sony Michel over Darrell Henderson with my fantasy season on the line.
— Tyler Justin Karp (@DLF_Karp) December 21, 2021
This projection seems incredibly high for Darrell Henderson, as in his first game back on the field, Sony Michel out-touched Henderson 20-8. Sony had a 72% Snap Share to Henderson’s 27% Snap Share. If we backtrack to when Henderson was the lead back, he has only hit 17 points four times this season.
The Vikings are a good fantasy football matchup for running backs, but if Michel is the clear lead back and Henderson is on the outside looking in, it will be challenging for Henderson to reach this projection. Henderson is a massive fade at his current projection.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.