We have finally reached the last week of the regular season in fantasy football. So how has your season gone? Hopefully, you are in one of two categories. The team that’s either a powerhouse or fought through injuries and made a late-season push to lock up a playoff spot.
I have repeatedly heard people say that it doesn’t matter how you get there as long as you make it to the playoffs. If you do not believe me, here are the playoff records for each seed from the last seven years in my home dynasty league.
Surprising, isn’t it? You would think that the top two seeds would be world-beaters in the playoffs. All it takes is one down week, and your team will go home. As the great Herm Edwards once said, “You Play To Win The Game!”
For this week, I want your fantasy football roster to be full of money plays as you make the playoff push. For those out of playoff contention, playing the spoiler role can be a fun way of giving yourself the motivation to finish the fantasy football season on a positive note. I beat my younger brother in one of my home leagues to secure the “Best Brother Championship” this year. Even though we were both eliminated, it’s always fun to have those bragging rights in the family.
QB: Lamar Jackson 23.30 Project Fantasy Points
Lamar Jackson past 3 seasons:
Pass TD Rate
2019 9.0%
2020 6.9%
2021 4.2%Rush TD Rate
2019 3.9%
2020 4.4%
2021 1.5%— Heath Cummings (@heathcummingssr) December 6, 2021
Lamar Jackson has had a strange fantasy football season. Many would consider it a disappointment, since he is currently the QB7 and QB5 in PPG. Lamar was drafted as the QB4 this offseason, but the expectations were that Lamar would challenge Mahomes for the QB1 crown this season. When you select a quarterback inside the first four rounds, you anticipate a difference-maker at the position. Unfortunately, only four times this year has Lamar surpassed his projected 23 points this season.
Something I found interesting is Lamar has the lowest time per pass attempt of his career; he is making decisions faster this season than in the past. In the Week 12 matchup, Jackson struggled against Cleveland’s defense, particularly from a clean pocket, going 12 of 22 for 71 yards. I would anticipate Jackson to struggle against the Brown pass defense this week.
RB: Aaron Jones 17.35 Projected Fantasy Points
RB Thoughts
– Only area Zeke is better than Pollard is pass pro at this point
– Damien Harris yanked hammy 2x on MNF. Bye next but Rhamonster’s time mayb coming
– No sense in #Broncos playing Melv Gordon anymore
– Cant be surprised if AJ Dillon outscores Aaron Jones down stretch— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 7, 2021
There is serious concern regarding Aaron Jones in fantasy football dynasty circles; and it makes sense. Jones has had a very up and down season, only reaching double-digit points in six games. In five games Jones scored less than 10 points, and he fell outside the top-30 RB in PPR scoring. So Jones has either been good or bad and not much in-between. It makes sense when comparing the season total versus points per game for Jones.
For the season, Jones is the RB12; or an RB1. If we sort by points per game, Jones falls to RB19; or a middling RB2. In a position so devastated by injury, Jones has been one of the few early-round running backs to stay healthy.
Jones will likely split more work with Dillon down the stretch as a touchdown dependant RB2 in your fantasy football lineups. Jones is averaging his lowest touches per game since his rookie year and career-low in yards per touch. Until otherwise, I do not have faith in Jones beating his RB1 level projections.
WR: Cooper Kupp 23.54 Projected Fantasy Points
One of my favorite WR’s in the game today. QB at the WR position. Real game. https://t.co/V1K9CQIMZO
— Doug Baldwin Jr 🌹 (@DougBaldwinJr) December 7, 2021
I love this tweet from Doug Baldwin, a great wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks during the Legion of Boom heyday. Cooper Kupp has been a true difference-maker at the wide receiver position this season. Kupp has even surpassed Davante Adams as the fantasy football goat at the position. What Kupp is doing this year is the stuff of legend, and if you have him on your fantasy football team, you know what I am referencing.
Kupp is averaging four more fantasy points per game than the overall WR2. Kupp has outscored Justin Jefferson, the number two fantasy wide receiver, by 63 points. To show how ridiculous that is, if you remove 63 points from Justin Jefferson, that takes you down to DJ Moore, the WR19 on the season.
So why would I be expecting Kupp to fall short of his projection this week? The Cardinals are a problem for opposing wide receivers. The only wide receiver to surpass 100 yards was Tyler Lockett in Week 11. While I am still starting Kupp with confidence, I am lowering his expectations this week. Nevertheless, Kupp is still the safest fantasy football player in the NFL.
TE: Kyle Pitts 10.5 Projected Fantasy Points
Fantasy football Twitter: chill on the Kyle Pitts' 17-game pace yardage totals. It's okay; everyone had this dude as a high-end TE1 in preseason. We all missed. But he's gone for fewer than 75-scoreless yards in all but two games. Enough with trying to make 2021 out as a success.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 7, 2021
This one pains me, as I was all aboard the Kyle Pitts hype train this offseason. While this year’s turned into a disappointment for Pitts, he’s still on pace to have one of the best rookie seasons of all time. Unfortunately, the second half of the year has seen Pitts struggle.
After the blowup game against Miami in Week 7, Pitts high in yards was 62. As a result of losing Calvin Ridley this year, defenses have been able to focus on taking Pitts away, given that he is the only viable receiving threat the Falcons have. During Kyle Pitts’s last six games, Pitts has averaged 39 yards and has zero touchdowns.
Given how bad the tight end position is in fantasy football, Pitts will likely stay in your lineups for the potential upside he brings. However, unless something changes, Pitts end of the season will probably be a disappointment.
Flex: Brandin Cooks 13.65 Projected Fantasy Points
lmao pic.twitter.com/C9gzx6lZWG
— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) December 5, 2021
The season is a marathon and not a sprint. Please take a look at Brandin Cooks weekly totals. They show you how chaotic a fantasy-wide receiver can be. Especially when attached to the quarterback situation Cooks is currently a part of.
From Weeks 1-7, Brandin Cooks was the WR22 in PPG. From Weeks 8-13, Cooks is WR31 in PPG. While the drop-off may not seem steep, moving from a WR2 to fringe WR3 turns you into an unreliable fantasy football asset in your starting lineup. The lack of production is a problem. The matchup is not a good one. Since Week 6, the most yards Seattle has given up to an opposing wide receiver is 78. In that span, opposing teams WR1 are averaging 53 yards/game against Seattle. Cooks is a boom-bust WR3/Flex play this week against Seattle.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.