Welcome to the ninth edition of our five weekly fantasy football fades. Last week was not as spooky as it initially looked, as we cleaned up going 4 for 5, with our lone miss being Tyler Boyd. We are now batting a respectable 61.5% on the season. I am here to keep the good times rolling for you, as I lay out my five fades for Week 9. As always, I am using the full PPR projections on Sleeper for the week.
QB – Ryan Tannehill 19.32 Projected Points
Derrick Henry has 0.04 EPA/play in 2021.
Ryan Tannehill has 0.089 EPA/play in 2021.
The stats show that even mediocre QB play is more valuable in terms of expected points then elite rushing. QBs are vastly more valuable then even the best RBs.
— SuperFlex Advice (@AdviceSuperflex) October 29, 2021
This tweet highlights just how much of an impact quarterbacks have on NFL games. Quarterbacks are the most critical position in professional sports. The ceiling is now raised for Tannehill without Henry, as the team will change its approach to continue its winnings ways this season.
The issue for Tannehill in this game is the Rams defense, which is a problem for NFL offenses. The Rams currently rank fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA. The addition of Von Miller boosts the pass rush and causes the floor to lower significantly in this game. I like Tannehill rest of the season, but I need to see him perform above and beyond in this Week 9 test without Henry before I confidently roll him out as a starter.
RB – Damien Harris 12.12 Projected Points
Highest-graded running backs
🥇 Tony Pollard – 90.3
🥈 Khalil Herbert – 84.5
🥉 Damien Harris – 83.5 pic.twitter.com/mEkzXYxDru— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 29, 2021
Damien Harris has had three straight games with double-digit fantasy points. However, I expect that streak to end this week against Carolina. Carolina is number two in fantasy points allowed to running backs on the year. They’ve been elite against running backs in fantasy football, outside of the two games versus Dallas and Minnesota.
Harris, unfortunately, still does not possess receiving upside in this offense, as his career high for receptions in a game is just two. As a result, Harris becomes a volatile asset without the receiving ability a player needs to pay off his RB2 price tag each week unless they can find the endzone. Therefore, I will look elsewhere for my RB2 this week.
WR –Â Mike Williams 18.30 Projected Points
Mike Williams has 0 games between 5 and 22 fantasy points and Keenan Allen has between 10 and 20 fantasy points in every game.
— Akash (@YZR_Fantasy) November 1, 2021
Mike Williams has posted back-to-back single-digit performances, good enough for 4.3 PPG and the WR103. A stark contrast to the first five weeks, Mike Williams, was the WR2 in PPG with 23.2. This week, Williams gets to go against Philadelphia, a team that had been good against wide receivers and obliterated by running backs and tight ends. Teams are choosing to attack Philly in this way to expose the weakness of the defense, and it is paying off. To no one’s surprise, Austin Ekeler is the highest project running back on Sleeper. Both Ekeler and Cook are in a smash spot, while I am tempering my expectations with Williams, who likely will see Darius Slay in this matchup.
TE – Mark Andrews 15.48 Projected Points
Ravens tight end Mark Andrews is the highest-rated player at his position through seven weeks according to Pro Football Focus https://t.co/hQ0wn5E1f3
— The Ravens Wire (@TheRavensWire) October 30, 2021
We have ourselves a tough matchup for Andrews this week, as Andrews goes up against the Minnesota Vikings. A team that has shut down every tight end it has competed against to start the year. Whether it was against T.J. Hockenson or the hot new Dallas tight end Dalton Schultz, Minnesota has been a problem for opposing team’s tight ends.
As Rashod Bateman becomes more comfortable in this offense, he will limit the upside of Andrews as NFL teams struggle to support three viable weapons in the passing game, especially one that does not throw at a high rate. As a result, one of Hollywood or Andrews will take a long-term hit in the offense.
FLEX – Michael Pittman 16.91 Projected PointsÂ
Michael Pittman a straight BALLER
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 25, 2021
Pittman has been on fire this season, and after last week’s 30+ point explosion, Pittman has cracked the top-20 wide receivers in fantasy football. Remember when the debate was between Pittman and Campbell this offseason? That’s a distant memory, as Pittman has secured the WR1 chair in Indianapolis.
Well, what is the concern with Pittman this week? The Jets are a run funnel defense that is top-10 in receptions, yards, and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, and the team has a terrible offense. When you add in those three ingredients, it sets the ball rolling in favor of being a run funnel defense. Offenses use their running backs at a higher rate. A team can win on the ground against New York and has chosen to week in and week out. Unfortunately, this week will not be a Michael Pittman game.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.